ANALYSISUS-Iran nuclear diplomacy remains stuck in old patterns
The back-and-forth between Iranian and US leaders over Tehran’s nuclear program and the prospect of negotiations has changed little since at least 2016.

Contributor
Behrouz Turani is the author of Iranian Media, A Non-Linear History. He has been advising governments on both sides of the Atlantic during the past three decades as a senior Iran expert. His career as a journalist includes working with internationally renowned media organizations including the BBC. He has also been teaching courses on media studies.
The back-and-forth between Iranian and US leaders over Tehran’s nuclear program and the prospect of negotiations has changed little since at least 2016.
A prominent political commentator in Tehran has suggested that the best way for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to break the current deadlock is to hold a national referendum on the question of war or peace with the United States.
The Iranian year 1403, which ended on March 20, saw the further weakening of major state institutions as Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei tightened his grip over a network of overlapping bodies, some of which he created himself.
One of Iran’s most hardline media commentators warns that negotiating with the United States will increase the likelihood of an attack on Iran, arguing that accepting Washington’s terms would leave the country more vulnerable.
During his June 2024 election campaign and his first six months in office, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian positioned himself as the "good cop" in the country's familiar good cop/bad cop dynamic between reformists and hardliners.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s suggestion on Thursday about pursuing indirect talks with the United States may signal a sudden shift in Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s previously uncompromising stance on negotiations.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei rejected US President Donald Trump’s overture for a deal with Tehran even before opening Trump’s letter. Still, like commentators and diplomats in Iran and abroad, he was likely aware of its contents.
Criticism of President Masoud Pezeshkian is no longer confined to his political rivals, whom he sought to appease by allocating many cabinet positions. Even the Reformist faction is growing frustrated with his lack of direction and inaction.
While Iran denies receiving a letter from President Donald Trump demanding nuclear talks, statements by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the foreign ministry and Iran's UN ambassador Saeed Iravani appear to be responses to it.
Iranian politicians and commentators have been making conflicting comments on Russia's stated preparedness to mediate between Iran and the United States regarding Tehran's controversial nuclear program.
Iran's embattled President Masoud Pezeshkian is feeling shaken but determined to carry on in office after hardliners forced out two of his key aids, a source close to his office told Iran International.
After Iranian hardliners ousted two key aides and rejected his hopes for talks with the United States, the young presidency of relative moderate Masoud Pezeshkian appears to be at a low ebb.
While a senior adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader rejected talks with the United States and urged Iranians to exercise "maximum patience" in response to US "maximum pressure," others called for restraint and diplomacy.
Ahmad Zeidabadi, prominent commentator close to the Reformist camp in Tehran, has raised the alarm that President Masoud Pezeshkian's popularity is declining and that is dangerous for the country.
A prominent sociologist in Tehran has warned that Iran could face widespread protests if the government fails to improve the country’s worsening financial situation and curb rising prices.
Some Iranian politicians maintain that Tehran’s military strength is deterring the United States as tensions fester between President Donald Trump and the Islamic Republic.
A senior member of the Iranian parliament (Majles) has proposed replacing Iran's problematic presidential election system with a model in which the Supreme Leader directly appoints the President.
Hardliners in Tehran keep blaming other officials for Iran’s economic crisis, despite broad recognition that US sanctions and the state-controlled economy are the main causes of inflation and currency devaluation.
A radical vigilante group leader in Tehran has suggested that Iran should carry out an operation against the United States similar to its missile attacks on Israel last year.
The dramatic fall in the value of the Iranian currency over the past few months, particularly since President Donald Trump took office in the United States, is likely to claim victims from among the president's cabinet members.
Divisions over US negotiations, economic hardship from sanctions, and concerns that Russia may use Iran’s nuclear program as leverage with Washington dominate debate in Tehran’s government-controlled media.
Negotiations between Iran and the United States remain possible if President Donald Trump adopts a less "confrontational and arrogant" tone toward Tehran, wrote the editor of a conservative newspaper founded by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
In Tehran, recent speeches and statements reveal Iranian officials are on edge over the intensifying war of words between US President Donald Trump and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Since his election, President Masoud Pezeshkian has faced attacks from hardliners, and now Reformist allies warn he could lose more public support if he fails to ease hardships from US sanctions.
A former official and a public intellectual in Tehran called on Iran's government to seize the opportunity for negotiations with the United States following US President Donald Trump’s offer to speak with his Iranian counterpart.
Political figures in Tehran are divided over ties with Moscow and Beijing. Some warn that Russia could exploit Iran’s tensions with the US, while others stress the importance of trade ties with both countries.
Iran's president and parliament speaker once again acknowledged that the country is facing a severe economic crisis, with people under "immense" inflationary pressure, with no relief from sanctions in sight.
Infighting persisted among rival factions in Tehran over possible US talks after Ali Khamenei gave an implicit green light earlier this week, though with caveats reflecting his recurrent distrust of America.
A shadowy new ultraconservative party calling itself the Society of Revolutionary Clerics is staking a place in Iranian politics well to the right of Saeed Jalili, the main standard bearer of opposition to the current relatively moderate government.
An Iranian sociologist has warned that middle-class citizens pushed below the poverty line by persistently high inflation and forced into the lower class are the most likely to spark a revolt against the ruling system.
Several politicians and commentators in Iran have indicated that president Masoud Pezeshkian has received approval from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Supreme National Security Council to initiate negotiations with the United States.
Iranian officials and media remain sharply divided over Tehran's relationship with Washington, as President Donald Trump's inauguration speech focused almost entirely on US domestic politics.
Some of Iran's Reformist politicians have recently called for a secular government; a notion that is in sharp contrast with the religious governing system that has been ruling in Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution.
Iranian officials find themselves in a Shakespearian dilemma over whether to negotiate with the incoming Trump administration. Engaging would mean justifying or apologizing for past intransigence, while refusal risks confronting a deeper existential threat.
While many analysts agree that Iran finds itself in a weakened position, a conservative commentator inside Iran claims that the unstable situation might shift in Tehran's favour.
A hardline Iranian lawmaker known for his parliamentary outbursts accused the government on Monday of betraying national interests by considering negotiations with the United States.
Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian has addressed the public's growing distrust in the government amid an economic crisis and energy shortages that have fueled widespread despair among the population.
As Iran's relative moderate president Masoud Pezeshkian struggles to fend off an economic slump and a bid by hardline politicians to impeach senior ministers, media commentators have pulled no punches about his job performance.
Hardliners in the Iranian parliament are determined to impeach four cabinet ministers just five months after the government’s formation, during an unprecedented economic crisis.
As President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration nears, more establishment figures and experts in Iran are urging authorities to engage in negotiations with the United States to alleviate the Islamic Republic’s severe economic pressures.
With Iran's economic outlook growing increasingly grim, ultraconservative lawmakers are calling for the impeachment of the economy and oil ministers, barely four months into their tenure.
A day after protests erupted at two of Tehran's traditional bazaars over the worsening economic crisis and soaring inflation, the goldsmiths bazaar joined the strike on Monday, December 30.
The lifting of official bans from two social media platforms on Tuesday may do little to dull the ire of Iranians about persistent government restrictions on their internet access.
Iranian hardliners who ironically spent time in the United States are responsible for pushing policies which deepen Iran's isolation and weakness, a leading centrist news outlet fulminated this week.
Three prominent centrist and conservative figures in Iran have suggested that the country’s political doctrine must change to address its ongoing problems, especially the economic impasse.
Iranian politicians and media are grappling with the implications of Assad's fall on Tehran's future relations with Damascus. Simultaneously, the Iranian government is attempting to justify its substantial expenditures in Syria since 2011.
A prominent centrist figure in Iran says that the ongoing deadlock over enforcing the new hijab law and lifting censorship on the Internet has effectively paralyzed the Pezeshkian administration.
The recent round of talks between Iran and Europe has left many Iranian diplomats and politicians disappointed. However, some observers argue that the failure of the November 29 talks in Geneva does not entirely close the door on diplomacy.
Some Iranian politicians and state-controlled media appear to be promoting a parallel narrative about huge Syrian military losses seemingly aimed at reassuring the Tehran's ideological supporters that the so-called axis of resistance it leads remains intact.
An Iranian state TV interview with President Masoud Pezeshkian has sparked debate for its sharp line of questioning and well-worn remarks by a new leader facing deep economic and foreign policy challenges.
As debates in Iran continue over the possibility of negotiations with the United States, divisions have emerged. While some advocate for talks, others remain skeptical about their potential benefits or even feasibility.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited the homes of four senior clerics in Qom last week to secure their backing for negotiations with the West as the country finds itself ever weaker on the world stage.
A growing number of commentators in Iranian media are criticizing hardline politicians for rhetoric they say has strained foreign relations and deepened the country's isolation.
Observers and commentators in Iran remain cautiously optimistic about the upcoming talks with the United Kingdom, France, and Germany regarding the country’s contentious nuclear program. However, dissenting voices persist.
Tehran is due to hold talks later this week with the United Kingdom, France, and Germany after the UN nuclear watchdog issued a censure resolution condemning its lack of transparency and violation of obligations under a 2015 nuclear deal.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated his campaign pledge this week to invite foreign experts to help address the country’s economic crisis, as his administration struggles with soaring inflation, severe shortages, and a collapsing currency.
Some Iranian analysts expect President-elect Donald Trump to pursue maximum pressure on Iran, while others see a chance for negotiations, though they admit talks with Trump would likely be difficult.
Politicians in Tehran seem optimistic about the possibility of restoring ties with the US after Donald Trump's election victory, with some volunteering to initiate talks regardless of their status and rank.
The escalators do not work. What works here is hijab enforcement. Welcome to Sadeqieh subway station in western Tehran! A link between the rest of the Iranian capital and its nearest densely populated suburb Karaj.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei faces numerous challenges with few possible options as he struggles to digest Donald Trump’s return to the presidency, which he did not expect.
Minutes after Donald Trump declared victory, hardline Iranian lawmaker Ahmad Naderi summed up the establishment’s stance: “We have a blood feud against Trump!”—a reference to his 2020 order to kill Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani.
As Americans head to the polls on Tuesday, many in Iran are closely watching the election, with some hoping Harris will pursue rapprochement and ease economic hardship while others count on Trump to renew maximum pressure and degrade the ruling system.
On November 4, 1979, a group of Islamist and leftist students stormed the US Embassy in Tehran, taking Americans hostage for 444 days. This act ignited the new Islamic government’s anti-U.S. crusade and set Iran on a path of prolonged conflict and isolation.
Some Iranian hardliners have warned that US interests could be targeted by Islamic Republic forces if Israel continues its strikes on Iran, asserting that Iran should view "interests, resources, and military personnel" as legitimate targets.
Islamic radical conservatism in Iran, dominant in government for the past two decades, has revealed its dangers through "purification" efforts, an adventurous foreign policy, erosion of the middle class, and the weakening of the private sector.
Iran officially declared on Monday an end to its "indirect" negotiations with the United States, which were seemingly aimed at lifting US sanctions and restraining Israel from pursuing the defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah.
As some of Iran's hardliners call for the weaponization of the country's nuclear program by pushing for "a change in its nuclear doctrine," it raises questions among Iran watchers about the implications of such demands.
Iran's domestic political landscape continues to simmer beneath the ashes of missile attacks and proxy wars, filled with its characteristic complexities and contradictions.
It was Khamenei's first major public appearance in nearly five years at Friday Prayers. His presence was announced days in advance and reiterated after Israel's threat to retaliate for Iran's October 1 missile attack.
As anxious Iranians followed the news of the October 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel and awaited Israel's response, others speculated about a possible shift in the Islamic Republic's nuclear doctrine.
Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian's current stay in New York for the UN General Assembly will be the shortest of any of his predecessors, lasting just three days.
As Iran’s president attends the UN General Assembly, speculation rises about potential encounters with US officials. The key question is: what do Tehran and Washington want from each other?
In a reaction to Iran's delivery of ballistic missiles to Russia, Poland's Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorsky said this week that Iran's new President Masoud Pezeshkian has disappointed him.
The Iranian parliament's overwhelming vote of confidence in President Masoud Pezeshkian's cabinet ministers on Wednesday is likely to have lasting implications that could reshape part of the country's political landscape.
Iran's outgoing ICT Minister Issa Zarepour has tried to mislead President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian about the reason why Iranians are unhappy about the slow Internet speed.
With a new president nearly in office in Tehran, there is much speculation about the direction of the new Iranian government's foreign policy.
Iran will have a new president by Saturday, July 6. However, two factors have badly damaged the status of the President, whoever he might be, and even the institution of the presidency.
As Iran’s low-turnout presidential election moves into a runoff set for July 5, three groups in Iran must make crucial decisions not only about the election but also about the country's future.
Whether it is a football championship or a presidential election in Iran, the outcome is always uncertain. There are many ifs and buts, with analysts, pundits, and spin doctors further complicating the scene.
Less than two weeks before voting day, there is little sign of the upcoming presidential election among the Iranian public, which appears indifferent. Some speculate this might change, but that seems unlikely given the trend in recent elections.
The generally accepted master narrative about Iran's presidential election describes it as an engineered election with a pre-determined winner.
The Iranian snap presidential election on June 28 is marked by a series of oddities unfolding before the eyes of indifferent voters.
Former President Mohammad Khatami, respected by a majority of ‘reformists’ in Iran said he will take part in the June 28 presidential election only if at least one of the Reform Front candidates is allowed to run.
Political groups in Iran have been proposing candidates for the June 28 presidential election in a bid to encourage relatively moderate politicians to come forward and change the monolithic political landscape.
The Iranian government is getting prepared for an early presidential election on June 28 following the sudden death of former President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last Sunday.
President Ebrahim Raisi's death in a helicopter crash is likely to impact the succession process for the 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Radio Iran, the state-run radio turned 85 on April 23. Once a driving force of Iran's modernization, the broadcaster transformed into an Islamic propaganda tool following the 1979 revolution.
Tens of millions of Iranians have already watched a prohibited music video produced by a foreign-based Iranian singer and banned by government censors.
In September, Iranian state television shut down its Jam-e Jam channel, designed to convey the Islamic Republic's message to millions of expats in the diaspora.
The massive disqualification of candidates for Iran’s March parliamentary elections was the focus of attention, but few paid attention to those who passed through the net.
Candles, vigils, sobbing and lamenting mothers, and offerings of traditional food and snacks at cemeteries on colorful tablecloths are common scenes in Iran this week.
The war between Israel and Hamas has significantly transformed the landscape of TV news and reporting both visually and in terms of content.
Tehran media had observed a shift in the attitude of Iranian officials toward Saudi Arabia, before the deadly Hamas attack on Israel, lavishly praised by the regime.
Regardless of what many might say about IRGC’s Qassem Soleimani and his role as a terror mastermind, even after his death he continues to disrupt good neighborliness.
Iran's nuclear negotiators since 2003 have oscillated between ruthless fundamentalism, ultraconservative idealism, and moderate conservative pragmatism.
The Iranian regime had some luck on its side as a series of coincidences reduced the likelihood of larger protests on the anniversary of Mahsa Amini last weekend.
While many expect a dull Iranian election in March, some anticipate a notable showdown: Hardliner President Ebrahim Raisi against his predecessor, Hassan Rouhani.
While Iranian conservatives aim to sideline reformists in the March 2024 parliamentary elections, there is a lack of consensus among them on many political issues.
In the swiftest social media platform migration ever witnessed, millions of Iranian Twitter users have flocked to Threads following its launch on July 6.
"It's a strange world, sweetheart," said one of modern Iran's greatest poets Ahmad Shamlou, when he highlighted paradoxes in the post-revolution Iran a few decades ago.
The Islamic Republic's tactic to deal with any major unrest has been firing at protesters, arresting activists, then staging a rally to show it has legitimacy.
The latest round of nationwide protests in Iran appears to be different from the protests that have rocked the Islamic Republic since 2017 in more than one way.
Iran’s government-controlled economy closely intertwined with a closed political system represents a “black hole” according to a prominent journalist in Tehran.
Iranian 'Reformists' have reacted negatively to one of their own for suggesting that nuclear weapons might be good for Iran, but one analyst says it is food for thought.
August 5 is the anniversary of Iran’s 1905 Constitutional Revolution, although 1905 was the beginning of a process that led to the revolution’s victory in 1911.