Khamenei faces stark choices in new Trump era, say Iran pundits

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei faces numerous challenges with few possible options as he struggles to digest Donald Trump’s return to the presidency, which he did not expect.

Trump’s political comeback feels like a nightmare from which Khamenei struggles to awaken. According to Iran International senior political analyst Morad Veisi, in this nightmare, Khamenei faces a leader who killed his favored commander, Qasem Soleimani, crippled Iran's oil exports, and designated his Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization.

Four years ago, Khamenei was nearly certain Trump was gone for good. In his worldview, a political comeback seemed unthinkable. Yet the dynamics of US democracy have unexpectedly brought this challenge back to him.

In the three days since Trump’s victory, Khamenei has remained conspicuously silent about him, despite delivering at least one speech to the Assembly of Experts—a group of clerics responsible for selecting his successor. While he refrained from mentioning Trump or the US election directly, he labeled all US presidents as corrupt.

Khamenei appears to be weighing his options, contemplating whether to prepare for engagement with Trump's United States or to maintain a hostile stance, ignoring a development that has stunned many in the world. His choices are stark: confrontation or diplomacy.

Iranian foreign policy analyst Abdolreza Faraji-Rad, likely recognizing the difficulty of discussing the issue with Khamenei, suggested that President Masoud Pezeshkian should work to build consensus, even among his strongest opponents, on the need for someone in Iran to engage with Trump. Faraji-Rad also noted that Trump’s response to any Iranian outreach will largely depend on the tone of messages he receives from Tehran in the ten weeks leading up to his inauguration.

Faraji-Rad, however, emphasized that the purpose of approaching Trump should be lifting the US sanctions on Iran and Pezeshkian should do it by creating a balance in Iran's foreign policy. Faraji Rad is certainly not unaware of the fact that it is only Khamenei who determines and steers Iran's foreign policy.

Centrist politician Hamid Abutalebi, once a participant in the 1979 US Embassy seizure in Tehran, even suggested that Pezeshkian should congratulate Trump on his election. However, Pezeshkian is unlikely to act without Khamenei’s approval, and Khamenei is expected to reject such a move at this time. He has previously stated that Trump is unworthy of receiving any message from Iran.

Hardline commentator Abbas Salimi Namin, however, expressed absolute confidence that Iran will never negotiate with Trump. He emphasized that Iran prefers multilateral discussions on its nuclear program, engaging with a group of countries rather than negotiating solely with the United States.

Khamenei, however, faces a severe six-year economic crisis at home, driven in part by US sanctions. Iran’s currency is at an all-time low, having lost 18 times its value since 2018. He also contends with a strengthened Israel, which has significantly weakened his proxy forces in Gaza and Lebanon and has launched air strikes against targets within Iran.

Meanwhile, Davoud Heshmati, a columnist for the pro-reform Rouydad24 website, criticized Iranian officials for repeatedly claiming there’s no difference between Trump and other former US presidents. He argued that Trump adheres to a "peace through strength" philosophy, evident in his actions from the beginning of his first term until his 2018 withdrawal from the nuclear deal with a defiant Iran. Heshmati also warned that the window to negotiate with Trump may not remain open indefinitely.

International relations expert Hadi Khosrow-Shahi wrote that Trump does not support regime change in Iran, and his Middle East policies may even create opportunities for the country. He noted that Trump’s administration is likely to shift its focus from the Middle East to prioritize confronting China.

Commenting on Trump’s political comeback, Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, a former member of Iran's parliamentary foreign relations committee, remarked, “Trump has returned with the same objectives, but with new methods to achieve them.”