Debate grows in Iran over ties with Russia and China

Political figures in Tehran are divided over ties with Moscow and Beijing. Some warn that Russia could exploit Iran’s tensions with the US, while others stress the importance of trade ties with both countries.

In an interview with Didban Iran website, reformist politician Mahmoud Mirlohi said that Iran must maintain an independent foreign policy and leverage its ties with Russia and China to improve relations with the United States.

"We should not allow Russia to use Iran as a pawn in its dealings with the United States," Mirlohi warned.

He also warned of the potential fallout from Iran's military support for Russia in its war against Ukraine, calling it "a serious cause for concern." He stressed that "Iran's strategic cooperation with Russia should not come at the expense of improving relations with other countries."

Russia is one of the signatories of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers. Negotiations to revive the deal, which had been ongoing for 12 months in Vienna during the US President Joe Biden administration, were abruptly halted in March 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Earlier this year, Iran and Russia signed a treaty, their first major agreement since 2001, aimed at deepening bilateral ties, though it did not establish a military alliance or impose binding obligations on either side.

"The 20-year strategic cooperation agreement with Russia should not limit Iran's ties with other countries, nor should we allow Russia to use Iran as a bargaining chip in its negotiations with the West," Mirlohi said.

Mirlohi also argued that, historically, Iranians have few positive memories of their relationship with Russia.

"Beyond hostile relations before, during, and after the Qajar era, Russia in recent years has failed to uphold its commitments, including delays in completing the Bushehr nuclear power plant and withholding S-300 air defense systems and Sukhoi SU-35 fighters, despite Iran paying for them in advance. This history has fueled concerns about the recent agreement between Iran and Russia," the politician said.

Mirlohi cautioned that Iran must balance its relations between East and West. He noted that while agreements among BRICS countries, including Russia and Iran, offer opportunities, "we should not expect them to solve all of Iran's problems, as the global banking system remains dependent on Europe and the US." He added that the importance of continued engagement with the EU and the US to protect Iran's interests.

In an interview with Mehr News, Tehran-based economic analyst Albert Boghozian emphasized the importance of trade deals with China and Russia, saying that they could help drive Iran’s economic development.

He said, however, that Tehran's economic ties with Moscow are less significant than those with China.

“We conduct extensive transactions with China, which is seeking new markets. Given the sanctions, we are particularly interested in trade conducted in our partners’ currencies—using roubles for transactions with Russia and yuan for deals with China—since we cannot process payments for imports through Swift,” he told Mehr News.

Boghozian also warned of the risks associated with relying on roubles and yuan due to their lower value compared to the US dollar. “It is risky to hold our foreign currency reserves in these currencies, but it remains our only option for bypassing US sanctions.”

As an example of challenges in trade deals with China and Russia, Iranian media—including the IRGC-linked Fars News Agency—have recently scrutinized the Tehran Municipality's purchase of subway trains from China.

The deal has faced significant delays, prompting Tehran City Council Chairman Mehdi Chamran to urge the press to stop discussing the issue.

While media outlets have criticized the opacity of trade agreements with China, Chamran argued that public debate could make the issue even more complex, adding that Beijing is still in the process of manufacturing the trains Tehran has ordered.