Bluffs, uncertainty and threat of war shape Iran's debate on US talks

While Iran denies receiving a letter from President Donald Trump demanding nuclear talks, statements by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the foreign ministry and Iran's UN ambassador Saeed Iravani appear to be responses to it.

The officials' statements suggest that the letter or message contained a mix of carrots and sticks. They also indicate that Iran may be open to Trump’s proposals, provided the talks remain strictly focused on the nuclear issue, as Iravani stated.

Iravani further suggested that Iran can take part in talks with America only to convince Washington that its nuclear program is peaceful.

At another level, media, commentators, and politicians seem perplexed by Trump’s approach. As political analyst Ali Bigdeli told the pro-reform daily Arman Melli, “Trump’s statements about Iran have confused everyone.” He added that “Trump disregards diplomatic protocols and seeks to stage a show of power.”

“He wants to overwhelm the other side, leaving them uncertain about how to respond,” Bigdeli said. Given this, he suggested that Iran might be better off using European mediators rather than engaging with Trump directly.

At the same time, in a commentary in the reformist daily Shargh, Iran's former ambassador to Riyadh Mohammad Hosseini has predicted that "the possibility of a military attack by the United States and Israel on Iran is serious and highly likely in the near future."

Hosseini outlined 10 reasons and indicators suggesting that an attack on Iran is imminent. These include the shared Israeli and US assessment of a shifting balance of power in the region, Iran’s declining ability to respond to threats, and officials in both countries recognizing the weakening ties between the Iranian people and their government.

Hosseini added that Israel and the United States recognize Iran has accelerated uranium enrichment to weaponization levels. He also noted that both countries are aware of Iran’s loss of strategic depth in the region and the likelihood that Russia could use Iran as a bargaining chip in negotiations over Ukraine.

Ali Hossein Ghazizadeh, London-based Iran International analyst, said that Trump understands Iranians will not agree to negotiations under pressure, yet he insists on talks solely to demonstrate that Iran is unwilling to engage.

Meanwhile, former diplomat Fereydoun Majlesi told local media that IAEA Chief Rafael Grossi is concerned about the possible weaponization of Tehran's nuclear program. Another concern for the West is nuclear proliferation in the region as a result of regional countries' rivalry with Iran.

He noted that the United Arab Emirates has already built a nuclear power plant, and Turkey and Saudi Arabia may also be encouraged to develop their own nuclear programs. Majlesi added that Grossi recognizes Iran's ability to effectively circumvent US economic sanctions, making it less likely to abandon enrichment. He quoted Grossi as saying that Iran’s nuclear program has gained new momentum since the US withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal.

Former chairman of the Iranian parliament's foreign relations committee, Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, told the conservative Nameh News website that Trump's threats against Iran are mere "bluffs" and that now is not the right time for Iran to negotiate with him.

State TV commentator Hassan Hanizadeh also dismissed Trump's "war or negotiation" rhetoric as "empty threats," arguing that Trump has no real intention of negotiating with Iran.

Meanwhile, Iran's former chief diplomat in London, Jalal Sadatian, told Nameh News that while Trump might soften his stance on Iran’s nuclear program, he is unlikely to change his broader approach to dealing with Iran.