With US talks off the table, Iran's president stuck in a hard place

Iran’s hardliners ousted two of President Masoud Pezeshkian’s top aides on Sunday. Economy Minister Abdolnaser Hemmati was impeached by Parliament, while Vice President for Strategic Affairs Javad Zarif resigned under pressure.

Hardliners accused Hemmati of failing to curb rising prices, inflation, and the devastating devaluation of Iran’s rial, while Zarif faced criticism over his family members' US citizenship. Pezeshkian had strongly defended both men.

The key question in Iranian newspapers on Monday was, "Will hardliners stop here?" Some outlets predicted that attacks on Pezeshkian and his government would continue.

Political commentators speaking to Persian-language media outside Iran said that anyone in Pezeshkian's position would have resigned almost immediately.

Inside Iran, however, commentators remained silent or were too intimidated to voice opinions that could be seen as undermining the government's integrity or sowing discord among officials.

What media, commentators, and politicians in Iran did not say was that Hemmati was impeached for economic problems rooted in Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s refusal to negotiate with the United States to address Iran’s chronic economic crisis. While many have acknowledged in recent months that US sanctions are the primary driver of Iran’s economic hardships, they have consistently avoided blaming Khamenei for the situation.

Even Pezeshkian and Hemmati, who detailed Iran’s deep economic problems in their speeches at the Majles, avoided explicitly naming Khamenei as the culprit. However, Pezeshkian made it clear: "I wanted to negotiate with the United States, but Khamenei forbade negotiations, and therefore, I said we won't negotiate."

That statement alone was damning. Pezeshkian was desperately trying to convey to the nation that the suffering was not his fault. From Khamenei’s perspective, shifting the blame to the economy minister helped absolve the Supreme Leader of responsibility for prolonging the country’s financial hardships.

With Khamenei dominating the country's political and media landscape, Pezeshkian has little room to further defend himself. He is likely to be left isolated, facing intensified attacks from hardliners who oppose his presidency and have never hidden their desire to unseat him.

The pro-reform website Fararu quoted former government spokesman Ali Rabiei as saying, "Pezeshkian has more difficult days ahead of him."

Other reformists, including cleric Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a former aide to President Mohammad Khatami, criticized Pezeshkian for his attempts to unify with hardliners. Abtahi argued that Pezeshkian appointed ultraconservatives to key positions in his government without securing their support for his administration.

Tehran's former mayor Gholam Hossein Karbaschi, who is currently the proprietor of centrist Ham Miham daily, wrote: "The hardliners will be further emboldened if Pezeshkian does not object and keeps giving concessions to ultraconservatives."

Karbaschi advised Pezeshkian that "There should be a limit to the idea of national reconciliation." He added that Hemmati's impeachment was a factional move and is not likely to bring about any improvement in the country's economic situation." He explained that the "ultraconservatives always held a grudge against Hemmati since June 2021 when he was competing with ultraconservative figureheads Saeed Jalili and Ebrahim Raisi as presidential candidate and questioned their understanding of the country's economy."

Referring to "the failure of national reconciliation as Pezeshkian's main project," proreform Rouydad24 warned the Iranian President: "Reconciliations with others in power has failed. Think of reconciling with the people."