Middle class poverty could spark revolt in Iran, sociologist warns

An Iranian sociologist has warned that middle-class citizens pushed below the poverty line by persistently high inflation and forced into the lower class are the most likely to spark a revolt against the ruling system.

Ardeshir Geravand told the Didban Iran website in Tehran, "When legitimate paths to power and wealth remain open, members of the middle class can maintain their status. However, when these avenues are blocked, it can lead to social unrest and, ultimately, revolution."

Iran has endured approximately 40% annual inflation over the past five years, with its currency losing 95% of its value since 2018. This crisis has not only left ordinary workers struggling to afford basic necessities but has also pushed many middle-class citizens into poverty.

"Injustice, special privileges for a well-connected few, bureaucratic obstacles, and the obscure political relations push people toward revolt and violence," Geravand said. He added, "Revolutions begin when legitimate pathways to a normal life are not accessible to everyone."

Using the recent killing of two notorious judges in Tehran as a case study, Geravand argued, "Poverty alone does not necessarily lead to violence unless it is coupled with conditions that make living a normal, ordinary life impossible."

Didban Iran columnist Parisa Hashemi noted that former President Ebrahim Raisi had pledged to eradicate poverty in Iran by 2021 or 2022, a promise that was clearly unfulfilled. She added that poverty has become deeply entrenched in Iran due to the poor performance of the ruling system, which has pushed millions of Iranians below the official poverty line and left many breadwinners humiliated in front of their families.

Hashemi further remarked, "In recent years, soaring prices have left many Iranian families unable to make ends meet. Faced with this harsh reality, many breadwinners have either abandoned their families or tragically taken their own lives."

Hassan Mousavi Chalak, chairman of the Iranian Social Workers' Association, highlighting a rise in breadwinners abandoning their families due to the economic crisis, warned that some may turn to criminal gangs.

Geravand explained that such individuals may justify turning to violence as a means of restoring justice. However, he emphasized, "Violence arises when a person concludes that changing their circumstances and escaping poverty is impossible."

Addressing the shifting dynamics of Iran's middle class, Geravand observed, "Many who once led affluent lives have now fallen into poverty. When a middle-class individual becomes impoverished, especially if they find no support within society, they may rebel out of sheer frustration."

The ongoing issue of Iran's political and economic deadlock was the focus of a recent debate between reformist political scientist Hatam Ghaderi and conservative philosophy professor Saeed Zibakalam on a YouTube channel not subject to direct censorship.

Professor Zibakalam rejected the notion of a deadlock in Iranian society, arguing that "it is a psychological trait of Iranians to traditionally submit to the conditions imposed by the government and accept their own inferiority." However, he acknowledged that this mindset must change.

Dr. Ghaderi, in contrast, asserted, "We are in a state of political impasse. The government blocks any possibility for change, and if this continues, it will only perpetuate backwardness." He further noted, "The transitions from the Qajar period to the Pahlavi era in 1925 and the 1979 revolution were both outcomes of political deadlock. Today, we are once again facing the same situation."