Trump's victory pressures Tehran on nuclear strategy

Minutes after Donald Trump declared victory, hardline Iranian lawmaker Ahmad Naderi summed up the establishment’s stance: “We have a blood feud against Trump!”—a reference to his 2020 order to kill Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani.

Hard feelings toward trump among Iranian officials existed even before Soleimani was killed.

In 2019, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei told former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who had delivered a message from the US president: “I do not see Trump as worthy of any message exchange, and I have no reply for him, now or in the future.”

Iranian officials, from moderates like former President Hassan Rouhani to hardliners like Supreme Leader Khamenei, have consistently blamed Trump for Iran's crippling economic woes since 2018, when he withdrew the United States from the 2015 nuclear deal and imposed severe sanctions. Trump demanded that Tehran should make concessions on its nuclear ambitions, regional proxy wars, and support for militant groups across the Middle East and beyond.

However, on Wednesday, Tehran-based economic journalist Maryam Shokrani remarked, “The hardships faced by Iran’s poor and middle class are the result of our own domestic policies. Don’t waste time blaming the presidents of other countries for Iran’s current situation.”

Iran International TV's Iran analyst Morteza Kazemian observed that "Trump took pride in the elimination of Soleimani. Now Khamenei faces the return of a US president he deeply detests and once said was “dumped in the trash bin of history.” Trump’s comeback adds new challenges for Khamenei, especially in light of Israel’s recent and relentless strikes on Iran’s allies, Hamas and Hezbollah, and a direct airstrike on Iranian targets on October 26.

Kazemian noted, “Now, the back-and-forth exchanges between Iran and Israel have a new player: Trump. This shift, combined with the dynamics between Trump and Russia's President Vladimir Putin, means Khamenei can no longer depend on the Russian leader. Russia had already distanced itself from Khamenei, but that gap is likely to widen with Trump’s return to the forefront.”

Meanwhile, prominent Iran analyst Hossein Bastani wrote on X, “In the next 10 weeks, the Islamic Republic faces tough strategic decisions on its nuclear program. Tehran must decide whether to push the program as close as possible to the point of no return. Rival factions in Iran may advocate for either maximum nuclear advancement or extreme caution to avoid further tensions with the United States.”

Bastani opined that "it is not even clear whether Khamenei is in a position to approve any one of the two approaches. However, it is difficult to imagine that the decision makers around Khamenei would not discuss these options."

Some Iranian media outlets engaged in bold speculations on Wednesday. Matin Ghaffarian, lead columnist for the Rouydad24 website, wrote in a Wednesday commentary, “Domestic conflicts might drive Trump toward war. Nothing keeps a leader mired in crises in power quite like a conflict. Netanyahu knows this well, and now he’s Trump’s closest ally.”

Although Ghaffarian is talking about Trump, obviously, others, including Khamenei might also find themselves in that situation soon.

Meanwhile, many observers, including former Iranian diplomat Fereidoun Majlesi, noted that Iran’s hardliners have welcomed Trump’s victory. The reason, however, lies within Iran’s domestic politics: hardliners hope Trump’s return will weaken President Masoud Pezeshkian’s relatively moderate administration, paving the way for them to gain even more influence in Iran’s already fragile government.