Deep disagreements set to define talks between Iran and Europe

Tehran is due to hold talks later this week with the United Kingdom, France, and Germany after the UN nuclear watchdog issued a censure resolution condemning its lack of transparency and violation of obligations under a 2015 nuclear deal.

The November 21 International Atomic Energy Agency resolution stressed that its board of governors was not convinced Iran’s nuclear program is peaceful.

The resolution against Iran may prove to be a crucial step in building a case for more binding measures and potentially initiate the UN trigger mechanism that brings back all UN sanctions against Iran that were in place before the 2015 deal.

As the Iranian Foreign Ministry expressed its readiness for negotiations, some government supporters became so optimistic about the planned talks that they began circulating speculative claims, including the idea that US entrepreneur Elon Musk might participate.

However, this turned out to be a misunderstanding based on a loosely translated post on X by a Wall Street Journal reporter.

How prepared is Iran for negotiations with the Europeans? 

Based on statements by some not-so-high-ranking Iranian officials, Tehran is definitely eager for negotiations, but the issue is to what extent it is willing to make concessions on three key issues: its nuclear program, support for its militant proxy forces in the Middle East and its military support for Russia's war in Ukraine.

Is Iran's nuclear program the most critical issue in talks with world powers? 

Undoubtedly, as the recent IAEA resolution underscores. However, it is far from the only significant challenge in any negotiations with Tehran. Iran faces a long list of contentious topics it must address at such a high level. These include its support for regional proxies, escalating tensions with Israel, involvement in Russia's war against Ukraine, missile development programs, alleged roles in cross-border terror plots, and a troubling record of human rights violations against its citizens and dual nationals, often taken hostage for political leverage.

Is the West genuinely concerned about Iran's regional proxies following Israel's strikes on Hamas and Hezbollah?

While the strikes may have weakened these groups, as well as others in Iraq, Yemen, and beyond, they remain active and operational. Iran continues to provide financial and logistical support to compensate for their losses and consistently voices unwavering backing for them. At the same time, Tehran persists in promoting its "axis of resistance" rhetoric, which translates into a militant stance against Israel and the United States.

Is the tension with Israel over more than a month after Israel's recent strikes on Iran?

Far from it. Iranian leaders, politicians, and particularly military commanders continue to vow revenge almost daily. While some of these threats may be intended for domestic consumption to maintain the loyalty of hardline supporters, their effect on public opinion in Israel is undeniable, especially as Hezbollah and occasionally Hamas persist in launching strikes inside Israel. Moreover, there is no sign that Iran has abandoned its threats to eliminate Israel. On the contrary, such rhetoric continues unabated from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior officials.

Is concern over Iran's contribution to Russia's war against Ukraine serious? Absolutely. In fact, it ranks as Europe's top concern regarding Tehran's hostile activities, perhaps surpassing worries about its nuclear ambitions. The entire continent is deeply troubled by a war on its doorstep that could escalate into a broader conflict. Meanwhile, European countries’ financial and military support for Ukraine has placed significant strain on their citizens, including those in the United Kingdom. Iran's military assistance to Russia exacerbates this already precarious situation, making it increasingly difficult for Europe to navigate the crisis.

But could Europe really view Iran's missile program as a serious threat?

Iranian military commanders frequently boast about their long-range missile capabilities, and recent missile attacks on Israel demonstrated their ability to strike distant targets. Unlike most nations with nuclear or conventional warheads, Iran has shown a tendency to use its missiles impulsively. It even targeted Pakistan at one point, only to retreat after a swift counterattack.

While Iranian missiles have been used against civilian targets in Saudi Arabia and Iraq fostering an illusion of power, their attacks on Israel have been largely ineffective due to Israel’s robust anti-missile defenses. Nevertheless, Europe remains concerned about the potential threat posed by Iran’s missile arsenal.

Can Europe and the United States really claim to care about human rights in Iran? The West has increasingly recognized the significance of Iranian protests, with both the US and Europe consistently condemning Tehran’s human rights violations over the past two years. Demonstrations in solidarity with Iranians have been ongoing in Western countries, and Iranian opposition figures have been welcomed at prominent international platforms, including the European Parliament and US Congress.

Human rights are likely to feature prominently in any negotiations with Iran, especially after the June 2024 presidential elections, where nearly 60 percent of Iranians boycotted the vote in protest. Meanwhile, the Iranian government is beginning to feel the pressure of a reawakening civil society. Even regime insiders have frequently cautioned leaders against further alienating the public. Most notably, the Islamic Republic newspaper—founded by none other than Khamenei himself—warned on November 25 that a revolution fueled by the hungry and disillusioned could be imminent.