How a Harris or Trump victory could impact Iran: experts weigh in

Days before the US presidential elections, foreign policy experts and commentators in Tehran are expressing varied opinions on how a win by Donald Trump or Kamala Harris could impact Iran.

These commentators are individuals permitted by Iran’s Islamic establishment to voice opinions in the media, particularly on sensitive issues like foreign policy. For months, many in government-controlled media have voiced concerns about the possibility of a second Trump term, given his hardline stance toward the Islamic Republic during his first tenure.

Foreign policy analyst and former lawmaker Shahryar Heidari told Tehran's conservative Nameh News website that Donald Trump’s election would likely escalate tensions in the Middle East.

Heidari suggested that, in contrast, Kamala Harris would approach the West Asian region with more caution. However, he emphasized that US policy in the region is largely consistent, regardless of who is elected; what may shift, he explained, are the tactics used to implement that policy.

Heidari added that “both Trump and Harris fully support Israel, though Trump’s rhetoric is more hardline.” He concluded that it ultimately makes little difference for Iran whether Trump or Harris is elected. However, a Trump victory would likely have a more significant psychological impact on Iranian officials, despite his seemingly milder stance in recent weeks. His unpredictability, nonetheless, could lead to escalating tensions in the region.

International relations analyst Ali Bigdeli contended that nothing is certain in politics, so it cannot be said with confidence that Trump’s election would lead to a war between Iran and the US. He described Trump as a businessman for whom the US economy remains the top priority.

Currently, the situation of US economy is not that great, he argued, and the country is having problems about inflation and immigration. The voters believe the Republicans are more likely to be focused on domestic political issues.

Generally, Bigdeli opined, Iran may favor Harris as the next US president, as Tehran has historically had better relations with Democrats. Many Iranian politicians view Trump as a challenging leader; he was the one who withdrew from the nuclear agreement with Iran, resulting in significant issues for Tehran due to the sanctions he imposed.

Bigdeli also said that Iran is not going to like any of the two candidates anyway. Iranian officials tend to view any US government as "enemy." Nonetheless, Iran is not likely to favor Trump over Harris as he has closer ties with Israel.

Iran's former ambassador to London, Jalal Sadatian, told reporters that neither Trump nor Harris is likely to seek war with Iran. He noted that while Israel has consistently pushed for a US-Iran conflict, the United States has so far refused to engage in such a war.

Sadatian also remarked that polls indicating a lead for one candidate aren’t always reliable, as not everything in a US election depends solely on the popular vote. He added that, given Trump’s past dealings with Iran, there is a general expectation in Iran that a Trump victory would lead to challenging times for the country.

He added that Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu prefers Trump as he was the only US President who supported Israel's decision to move its capital to Jerusalem. However, Sadatian also pointed out that the whole political establishment in the United States is Israel's strategic ally and it does not matter which party wins the election.

“While presidents from both parties have initiated wars, one could argue that Democrats are typically ‘doves’ and Republicans ‘hawks,’” Sadatian remarked. He added that, despite the United States' longstanding support for Israel, politicians understand that any war with Iran would harm US interests in the region.

Another foreign policy analyst, Ghasem Mohebali, commented, “Trump is closer to Israeli radicals, but this doesn’t necessarily mean he supports the idea of war with Iran. Even if Trump wins the election, negotiations with Iran can’t be ruled out, although the situation is very different from 2015.”

Mohebali emphasized that the United States is reluctant to enter a war with Iran, as it would harm US interests. Conversely, he noted, Russia and China—who stand to benefit from such a conflict—might directly support Iran to strategically weaken the United States.