Iran International
Iran's surge in attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz may be an attempt to exploit US restraint ahead of the midterm elections and undermine a recovery in Persian Gulf oil shipments, experts told Iran International.
Twelve vessels were attacked between October 5 and 11, including six on Sunday alone, and on Tuesday a tanker and a container ship were struck by unknown projectiles, according to UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), marking one of the most intense periods of attacks since the war began.
Rear Admiral Ali Azmaei of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy warned Tuesday that Iranian forces would sink US warships approaching the Strait of Hormuz, saying they were “counting down” to a possible confrontation in the strategic waterway.
The escalation comes as the US blockade has effectively halted Iran's crude oil exports, while other Persian Gulf producers have increasingly succeeded in moving their oil through the strategic waterway, threatening to erode one of Tehran's remaining sources of leverage. Brent crude settled at $105.69 per barrel Tuesday, snapping three consecutive sessions of gains, as traders weighed continued Middle Eastern supply disruptions against other market developments.
Charlie Brown, a maritime security expert with United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), believes the timing may be linked to President Donald Trump's announcement that Washington would not launch new attacks against Iran before the November 3 midterm elections.
"I think Trump signaled it, right? He said he wouldn't attack until the election," Brown told Iran International.
"So, you know, now they're taking that as word, I guess. And testing it and taking advantage of the situation."
Brown said the absence of direct American retaliation for the latest strikes may be encouraging Tehran to push further.
Two senior Iranian officials separately told Reuters that Tehran had changed the type and pace of its attacks, with one goal being to influence the US midterm elections and frustrate efforts to lower global oil prices.
"Every attack that goes without a response probably encourages a follow-on attack," he said.
The calculation extends beyond the military confrontation. Although the United States is less dependent on Persian Gulf oil than many Asian economies, disruptions affect global energy prices and American consumers.
Brown suggested Tehran may be exploiting that vulnerability at a politically sensitive moment, when rising gasoline prices could increase pressure on the White House.
An October surprise?
Shahram Kholdi, a historian of Iran, sees a potentially more ambitious calculation: an attempt to engineer an "October surprise" that could put Trump under pressure ahead of the elections.
Kholdi believes Tehran may have used the relative lull in hostilities to preserve its remaining military capabilities, replenish weapons stockpiles and prepare for a politically advantageous moment to escalate.
"It seems to me that they are headed towards that October surprise moment," he told Iran International.
But Kholdi warned that the strategy could backfire if Tehran moves beyond commercial shipping and attempts to strike American naval assets with advanced missiles.
The danger, in his assessment, is that Tehran may mistake temporary American restraint for an unwillingness to retaliate.
Iran threatens recovery in Persian Gulf oil flows
The latest attacks threaten to reverse a recovery in Persian Gulf oil shipments that had begun to weaken Tehran's ability to disrupt global energy supplies.
Despite the war, producers had managed to increase exports through Hormuz, aided by US protection measures, larger tankers and costly arrangements to move cargo through the threatened waterway.
Oil flows out of the Persian Gulf averaged approximately 15.5 million barrels per day in September, their highest level since the war began, according to recent data by Kpler.
But shipments have since fallen sharply. Just 2.9 million barrels passed through Hormuz on October 11, the lowest daily volume recorded this month, according to Kpler.
The figures underscore the vulnerability of the recovery, although daily flows can fluctuate significantly and do not alone establish how much of the decline resulted directly from the attacks.
Brent crude settled at $104.77 per barrel Tuesday after three consecutive sessions of gains, as traders weighed continued Middle Eastern supply disruptions against other market developments.
Tom Sharpe, a former Royal Navy commander, said the earlier recovery in oil volumes had masked the dangers facing commercial vessels.
"We're at sort of pre-war levels of oil, but in far fewer ships," he told Iran International.
Sharpe described large tankers making high-risk passages with enhanced American protection, sometimes sustaining strikes before reaching safer waters and transferring cargo to other vessels.
In some cases, he said, crews are also transferred after completing the most dangerous part of the journey.
"It's not working. Iran is still striking," Sharpe said of the enhanced protection measures.
According to the Joint Maritime Information Center, US-facilitated vessel movements through Hormuz averaged approximately 29 per day over a recent 72-hour period, compared with a historical average of roughly 138 daily transits.
Undermining confidence in shipping
Brown said Iran does not need to stop every vessel to undermine confidence in the safety of the waterway.
Exceptionally high tanker charter rates have encouraged some operators to continue despite the danger, but others may decide the financial rewards are not worth risking their vessels and crews.
"There will always be some that take the risk because the profits are so big right now," he said.
The threat has also spread beyond the strait, with vessels attacked near Oman's Sohar anchorage and elsewhere in the Persian Gulf.
Brown believes Iran continues to receive Russian and Chinese intelligence assistance, potentially including satellite imagery and vessel-tracking information that does not rely on ships' Automatic Identification System signals.
"I'm confident that that's still happening on a daily basis," he said.
The escalation comes amid renewed diplomatic contacts between Tehran and Washington, with Iranian officials saying the United States has accepted some of Tehran's conditions for de-escalation but that its response remains insufficient.
Trump said Tuesday that Washington would make a decision on Iran “very soon.”
"We'll make a decision on Iran very soon," Trump told reporters, describing Iran as a "failed country" with no economy, inflation of 300 percent and a government unable to pay its troops.
The United States continues enforcing its maritime blockade, while Trump has said Washington will not resume strikes against Iran before the November 3 elections.
Sharpe noted that the surge in attacks on shipping is occurring alongside intensified strikes by the Iran-backed Houthis against Saudi Arabia.
"There's an Iranian and Houthi escalation going on here that's not being matched. How long will that carry on for?" he said.
The simultaneous pressure on Persian Gulf shipping and Saudi infrastructure risks widening the confrontation at a time when diplomatic efforts have yet to produce a settlement.
The stakes for Tehran are particularly high.
Kpler data shows no Iranian crude oil or condensate loaded onto tankers throughout September, leaving the Islamic Republic increasingly dependent on its ability to threaten shipments from neighboring producers to maintain leverage over Washington.
But the strategy carries a significant risk: an attack causing substantial casualties or striking US military assets could trigger the kind of direct American retaliation Kholdi warned Tehran may be underestimating.
US President Donald Trump said Tuesday he would make a decision on Iran “very soon,” as fresh attacks hit commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the war between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthis escalated.
Speaking to reporters before departing for Alaska, Trump described Iran as a “failed country” with severe economic problems but did not specify what decision Washington was considering.
"Iran is a failed country. They have no economy. They have 300 percent inflation. They have no money. They're not paying their troops. They're not paying anybody. We'll make a decision on Iran very soon," Trump said.
Trump's remarks came as fighting between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis intensified.
In a separate Truth Social post, Trump suggested the renewed attacks were carried out “probably at the behest of Iran” and accused the Houthis of deliberately trying to drive up oil prices ahead of the November 3 US midterm elections.
"They’ve been silent for a long time, but now they’ve emerged again, probably at the behest of Iran, which is a Failing Nation, with No Navy, No Airforce, the World’s Worst Economy, and 301% Inflation, in a very nasty way, hitting Saudi Arabia, and purposefully trying to drive up Oil Prices, probably prior to the U.S. Elections — NOT NICE," Trump wrote.
“I’ll be there after the elections, and I will never forget!” he added.
Trump also said he might ask Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to help Saudi Arabia deal with the Houthis. He said the Houthis were “behaving very badly” and added, “President Erdogan, I think, would do as I ask.”
Trump said Saturday he was considering whether the United States should join Saudi Arabia's military campaign against the Houthis following the deadly attack on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport.
Saudi Arabia intercepts Houthi missiles and drones
Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia continued on Tuesday following a deadly strike on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport on Saturday that killed 13 people and wounded more than 300.
The Saudi-led coalition said its air defenses intercepted and destroyed five drones and six missiles targeting Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, including Riyadh, Dhahran and the country's southern region.
Loud explosions were heard near Saudi Aramco's headquarters in Dhahran, where a fire broke out after a missile attack. A source with direct knowledge told Reuters the headquarters had been struck, though it was unclear whether the building was hit directly or by falling debris. Saudi Arabia's Energy Ministry said the fire was limited to an administrative building and caused no injuries.
As attacks continued on Saudi territory, the Saudi-led coalition carried out strikes in Yemen.
Houthi-run Al-Masirah television said the coalition struck the Yemen Petroleum Company's Al-Sabaha central station on the outskirts of Sanaa after ordering civilians to evacuate the site.
Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said the group's forces were confronting Saudi fighter jets targeting Sanaa and warned that attacks on the Yemeni capital would be met with a “harsh and painful” response in Riyadh.
The fighting prompted a series of diplomatic calls across the region on Tuesday.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that Turkey would continue to stand by the kingdom, strongly condemning the Houthi attacks, according to the Turkish presidency.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty called for an immediate halt to attacks on Saudi Arabia during a phone call with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi, calling the attacks unjustified and unacceptable, Egypt's Foreign Ministry said.
Araghchi also spoke with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on Tuesday about regional developments and efforts to resolve ongoing conflicts, according to Turkish Foreign Ministry sources.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz urged Iran to engage in serious negotiations and stop destabilizing the region after speaking with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, according to the German government.
Two more ships struck in Strait of Hormuz
A tanker and a container ship were struck by unidentified projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, UKMTO said in separate notices. The latest incidents followed a sharp increase in attacks on commercial shipping, with 12 vessels reported attacked in and around the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf between October 5 and 11, according to a tally of UKMTO warnings.
UKMTO said both incidents were under investigation and that details of damage or casualties had not been established.
The incidents came as Iran's Revolutionary Guards renewed threats against US naval forces operating near the strait.
IRGC Navy commander Ali Azmaei said Iranian forces were waiting for American warships to approach the Strait of Hormuz so they could be “sunk.”
Azmaei also claimed the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf were under IRGC Navy control.
US Central Command rejected Azmaei's assertion, saying Tuesday that “American forces and regional partners clearly control the Strait of Hormuz.” CENTCOM said US forces had assisted Persian Gulf partners in shipping more than 19 million barrels of crude oil through the strait on Monday.
Trump weighs next steps on Iran
Trump’s comments about an impending decision on Iran came as Axios reported his administration was weighing whether to maintain pressure on Tehran or resume military action.
Axios reported Tuesday that Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed a possible new operation against Iran last week, with Netanyahu raising concerns that Tehran was rebuilding parts of its nuclear program.
A US official told Axios that Trump told Netanyahu to prepare for a possible operation but made no commitment on whether or when military action would take place. A White House official disputed that Trump and Netanyahu discussed resuming the war and reiterated that the United States would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections.
Axios said Trump had initially appeared inclined toward renewed strikes but later became more hesitant, while most of his advisers favored maintaining economic and other pressure on Iran for now.
The possibility of renewed military action has also prompted warnings from Tehran. Mohammad Reza Naghdi, a senior adviser to the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, said a US ground attack would result in large numbers of American troops being captured.
“If the United States launches a ground attack, so many of its troops will be captured that it will be forced to raise the white flag,” Naghdi said.
Oscar-winning Iranian filmmaker Asghar Farhadi says his next film will be in Persian and set in Tehran but shot abroad to avoid Iran's mandatory hijab rules and government permit requirements.
In a caption accompanying Instagram video excerpts from a cinema masterclass in Brazil, Farhadi said the screenplay for his next film, a social drama, was nearing completion and filming was planned for 2027.
"My next film, whose screenplay is nearing completion, is a social drama in Persian and has nothing to do with Palestine," he wrote, apparently responding to social media rumors.
"Although the story is set in Tehran, as I have previously stated, I am not willing to make a film under an official permit and with mandatory hijab requirements. For this reason, the film is scheduled to be shot outside Iran next year."
Under Iran's film regulations, filmmakers must obtain production permits from the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance, which oversees the film industry and enforces government censorship requirements.
Directors must submit scripts for approval before filming, while completed productions undergo a separate review before they can be screened publicly. Female performers are also required to wear the hijab on screen, including in scenes depicting private settings.
Farhadi, who won Academy Awards for A Separation and The Salesman, had already announced plans to return to Persian-language filmmaking.
In an August 18 interview with film industry publication Screen Daily, he said his next project would be shot outside Iran and France, citing political and social restrictions as his reason for not filming in his home country.
His latest comments explicitly reaffirmed his refusal to work under Iran's official permit system and mandatory hijab requirements.
Farhadi rejects Tehran’s interpretation of his Hollywood remarks
The filmmaker also addressed controversy surrounding remarks he made about Hollywood cinema and American democracy during a masterclass in Brazil.
Farhadi said some media outlets had incorrectly described his comments as an interview with entertainment publication Variety, when they were made in response to a moderator's question about the Hollywood film Argo during a session attended by students and cinema enthusiasts.
The 2012 film, directed by Ben Affleck, depicts a CIA operation to rescue six Americans from Iran during the 1979 hostage crisis.
"Criticizing parts of Hollywood cinema, the condescending perspective in some films, and discussing American democracy in no way means endorsing the existence of democracy or the way Iran is governed," Farhadi wrote.
He accused media outlets close to Iran's government of exploiting his remarks for political purposes, saying the same outlets had spent years insulting and attacking him.
"The appropriation of my remarks by certain media outlets close to the government is a blatant misuse for their political objectives, which I have never believed in," he wrote.
"Iran, my homeland, has been my red line throughout all these years," Farhadi added. "Everything I have said, and everything I will say from now on, has always been based on this conviction."
Despite signs of movement in negotiations with Washington, Tehran is showing little inclination to ease military pressure, pursuing diplomacy while signaling that renewed US attacks could trigger a broader regional response.
Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Tuesday that Iran was finalizing its response to US comments on a proposal Tehran submitted in New York, insisting that the Islamic Republic remained open to diplomacy but was prepared for war as well.
Some Iranian officials have privately suggested Tehran could send forces into neighboring countries if the United States launches new strikes, the Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday, citing people familiar with the warnings.
The newspaper said Tehran had warned regional governments, publicly and privately, that renewed US attacks would prompt a wider Iranian response across the Middle East.
The combination of diplomacy and military pressure reflects the central calculation facing Tehran: whether limited movement from Washington represents the beginning of a settlement or an attempt to weaken Iran's leverage without conceding its principal demands.
Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, has said Washington accepted “some” of Tehran's seven conditions for de-escalation through Qatari and Omani mediators. But Iranian officials have characterized the US response as insufficient.
At sea, there has been no corresponding easing of pressure.
The Revolutionary Guards have continued to warn ships against using routes Tehran considers unauthorized, including alternative passages intended to circumvent Iranian restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Preserving Iran's leverage
Control over passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains one of Tehran's strongest sources of leverage. If US-protected shipping can routinely bypass Iranian restrictions, Tehran risks losing that leverage while continuing to suffer the effects of the US blockade on its own economy.
Tehran's demands include an end to the blockade and the release of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets. Allowing alternative routes to become normalized before securing substantial concessions would mean surrendering one of its most powerful bargaining tools.
But maintaining that pressure is also hurting Iran. Its oil exports have effectively stopped under the blockade, with Kpler data showing no crude oil or condensate loaded onto tankers throughout September.
Restrictions have also complicated imports and intensified pressure on an economy already struggling with a sharply weakened currency and high inflation.
Tehran is therefore trying to preserve its maritime leverage while suffering increasingly severe consequences from the confrontation that created it.
Widening the confrontation?
Enforcing Iranian restrictions farther from traditional shipping lanes risks turning a struggle over the Strait of Hormuz into a broader confrontation involving neighboring states.
Oman and Qatar have been central to mediation between Washington and Tehran. Any Iranian action threatening shipping close to Omani waters could complicate the diplomatic channel Tehran is simultaneously trying to preserve.
Iran has not publicly announced plans to send forces across its borders, but the warnings appear designed to convince regional governments that another US campaign against Iran would not remain confined to Iranian territory.
Houthi missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia have already demonstrated how quickly renewed fighting can spread beyond the direct US-Iran confrontation, threatening airports, energy infrastructure and regional shipping.
For Tehran, that instability can increase pressure on Washington and its allies. But it also raises the possibility of an escalation Iran may struggle to control.
War and diplomacy
Hardline and security-aligned voices portray Washington's willingness to engage with Tehran's proposals as evidence that military pressure has worked and argue against giving up that leverage prematurely.
Others favoring diplomacy see US movement as an opening that could disappear if attacks on shipping or neighboring states trigger another round of escalation.
Gharibabadi captured that dual approach Tuesday, saying Iran had not shied away from diplomacy but was prepared for either outcome.
For now, Tehran is pursuing both tracks simultaneously, negotiating while trying to demonstrate that failure to reach an agreement will remain costly — not only for Iran, but for the United States and its regional partners.
The International Monetary Fund forecast Tuesday that Iran’s economy would shrink 7.6% in 2026, a worse outlook than for its main Middle Eastern rivals amid the war, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE facing smaller contractions and Israel and Turkey expected to grow.
The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook revised Iran's forecast downward from a 5.4% contraction projected in July. The economy is now expected to shrink for a second consecutive year, following an estimated 0.9% decline in 2025.
The IMF expects the economies of the Middle East and Central Asia to contract by 0.3% this year, a sharp reversal from the 1.9% growth it forecast in April.
Several countries in the region face deeper contractions than Iran, with the IMF forecasting declines of 16.7% in Kuwait, 16% in Iraq, 15.6% in Qatar and 11.3% in Bahrain.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are expected to see smaller contractions of 3.3% and 3.9%, respectively. Others are projected to grow, including Egypt by 5.1%, Israel by 4.5%, Oman by 4.1%, and Jordan and Turkey by 2.7% each.
The deterioration in most regional countries reflects renewed military exchanges and prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran faces the additional pressure of the US naval blockade.
Iran's projected contraction nevertheless stands out, reflecting restrictions on its oil exports and an economy already weakened by years of sanctions and structural problems.
‘Deep recession’
Iranian government data presents a similarly bleak picture.
The Statistical Center of Iran reported last month that GDP contracted 10% in spring 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier, the sharpest quarterly decline in 15 years.
Even excluding oil, the economy shrank 4.6%, showing that the downturn extended well beyond the energy sector.
Oil and gas production fell 26.4% from a year earlier, while industry and mining contracted 14.7% and services 4.8%. Agriculture was the only major sector to expand, growing 2.3%.
Exports of goods and services fell nearly 36% and imports declined almost 15%. Household consumption dropped 4%, indicating a further weakening of domestic demand and purchasing power.
The figures contrast sharply with the global outlook, with the IMF expecting growth of just over 3% worldwide in 2026.
Officials offer rosier picture
Senior Iranian officials have continued to offer far more optimistic assessments.
Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati told state television last week that inflationary pressures had eased during the summer and that the government had prevented the economic collapse predicted by Washington.
Former Labor Minister Hojjat Abdolmaleki went further in recent remarks that drew mockery on Iranian social media, saying inflation was effectively Iran's only economic problem.
“If you put high prices aside, you have no other economic problems,” he said.
Pressure on oil exports
Iran loaded no crude oil or condensate onto tankers throughout September, according to data from commodities intelligence firm Kpler, the first full month without loadings since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Washington has described its economic campaign as an effort to deprive Tehran of its remaining sources of revenue.
On October 8, the US Treasury imposed sanctions on 17 vessels and associated companies it identified as part of Iran's remaining shadow fleet.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration would continue targeting those facilitating Iranian oil sales.
The combination of the IMF forecast and Iran's own economic data points to a recession extending well beyond the country's energy sector.
How much deeper it becomes will depend in large part on the duration of the war, the blockade and Tehran's ability to restore oil exports.
The deadly attacks on Riyadh’s main airport mirror Iranian warnings to disrupt regional air travel in response to US sanctions, analysts say, while serving the Houthis’ own goal of pressuring Saudi Arabia over its support for rival forces in Yemen.
A Houthi missile strike on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport on Saturday killed 13 people and injured more than 300, according to Saudi authorities. A follow-up attack on Sunday killed one and wounded 11 others, prompting officials to extend flight suspensions on Monday.
Among the dead were an Indian national traveling with his family for Umrah, an Egyptian flight attendant and a Saudi pilot. Footage released by Saudi authorities shows passengers waiting inside a terminal before an explosion sends them fleeing through smoke and debris.
The attacks came weeks after Tehran warned it would disrupt regional aviation if US sanctions isolated Iranian airlines. No public evidence has established that Iran ordered the strikes, but analysts said they were consistent with its threats.
Yemeni-American analyst Fatima Abo Alasrar described the escalation as part of a familiar pattern in which Tehran seeks to export its economic hardship to its neighbors.
"Just as the United States said that it's going to conduct Operation Economic Outcast and impose sanctions on Tehran, Tehran is also doing economic outcast for Saudi Arabia through this pressure," said Abo Alasrar, a scholar at Ideology Machine.
Tehran's aviation threats
Senior Iranian officials issued the warnings as Washington intensified its economic campaign against Tehran.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently announced measures aimed at shutting Iranian airlines out of global airspace, warning foreign airports, ground crews and fuel suppliers that aiding Iranian carriers would trigger exclusion from the dollar-based financial system.
"If they land, you cannot provide them with fuel, you cannot provide them with landing services, you cannot sell them tickets, or you will be knocked out of the dollar system," Bessent said.
Tehran responded with direct threats.
"If Iran cannot fly and receive airport services, no country in the region will have that possibility either," Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, wrote on social media.
Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, similarly warned that neighboring airports would be forced to shut down if they complied with US restrictions.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran Program director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, placed the subsequent airport attacks within Tehran’s broader efforts to recover regional influence.
"This is a game of cross-domain escalation," he told Iran International.
"We can't forget that the strategic backdrop is Iran losing leverage in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz and trying to gain it back via proxy."
Iran has played a major role in developing the Houthis’ military capabilities since the group seized Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, in 2014.
A 2024 United Nations report found that the Houthis’ transformation into a powerful military organization was made possible by weapons transfers, training and technical assistance from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iraqi specialists.
In July, Reuters reported that Iran had flown IRGC commanders, military advisers and missile- and drone-related equipment into Yemen during the current war, according to sources familiar with the transfers.
Tehran has repeatedly denied supplying the Houthis with weapons, while the group maintains that it makes its own military decisions."
The battle for Bab al-Mandab
The airport attacks coincide with military setbacks for the Houthis along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, where Saudi-backed government forces have recaptured territory near the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait.
Abo Alasrar said the Houthis have an immediate objective of their own: forcing Riyadh to reconsider its support for Yemen’s internationally recognized government.
"The Houthis have both Tehran's intentions and their own aims on the ground," she said.
In her assessment, a sustained government advance toward Hodeidah, a major port on Yemen’s western coast, could threaten Houthi access to the sea and restrict routes used to move weapons and military components into their territory.
Losing their remaining coastal access could leave the Houthis effectively landlocked, a development Abo Alasrar described as a worst-case scenario for both the group and Tehran.
While Riyadh has strong incentives to de-escalate, she warned that concessions intended to secure a short-term settlement could allow the Houthis to rebuild their military capabilities.
Restoring access to airports or coastal territory, she argued, could reopen routes for smuggling missile components and other military supplies, setting the stage for another round of escalation.
A battle for public opinion
The killing and endangering of civilians in Saudi Arabia also risk undermining the Houthis’ efforts to portray themselves as defenders of Muslims, Abo Alasrar said.
"It exposed the hypocrisy of the Houthis, who have continuously been saying death to America, death to Israel, but then they're lobbing the missiles towards Muslim population," she said.
Images of passengers fleeing explosions have also become part of an information war unfolding alongside the military confrontation.
"The Saudi news channel Al Arabiya has adopted an unusually graphic approach, broadcasting harrowing footage of explosions and destruction reportedly inside Riyadh airport," Middle East political analyst and journalist Mohamed Fahmy told Iran International.
Fahmy said footage of the attacks, along with social media clips of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman offering condolences to a slain pilot’s father, appeared intended to prepare Saudis for further confrontation and reinforce confidence in the kingdom’s leadership.
Increased firepower alone was unlikely to end the confrontation, he said. A durable outcome would require deterrence, intelligence cooperation, political engagement and a military strategy for ending Yemen’s civil war.
Diplomacy amid escalation
Even as the Houthis continue their attacks, Tehran has sought to present itself as a potential diplomatic intermediary.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke with his Saudi counterpart, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, on Sunday about the conflict.
A senior Houthi official subsequently claimed that Saudi Arabia had considered proposals for a temporary ceasefire, although the group rejected them.
Fahmy said Tehran’s diplomatic outreach allows it to project an image of regional engagement while distancing itself from the actions of its armed partners.
