Oil, gas and Iran economic analyst
New tanker-tracking data shows that Iran’s new oil exports have effectively ground to a halt, while crude exports from Arab countries in the region surpassed pre-war levels in the final week of September.
Data from commodities intelligence firm Kpler shows that regional crude exports reached their highest level since the war began in late February.
Average crude exports stood at around 16.5 million barrels per day in September, but the seven-day average rose to around 19.5 million barrels per day in the final week of the month, surpassing the pre-war level of approximately 17 million barrels per day.
By contrast, Iran has not loaded any new oil at its terminals since mid-August, while no Iranian oil cargo has crossed the US blockade line since mid-July. Data from tanker-tracking firm TankerTrackers also points to a halt in new Iranian crude shipments.
Homayoun Falakshahi, a senior analyst at Kpler, told Iran International that the halt in loadings has forced Iran to cut oil production to roughly the level required for domestic consumption, around 1.8 million barrels per day—roughly half its pre-war output.
Iran’s oil exports
Kpler data, seen by Iran International, shows that since mid-July, no Iranian oil cargo has crossed the blockade line and travelled through Asian waters toward China.
Iran continued loading oil for several weeks and, by mid-August, had stored around 67 million barrels aboard tankers anchored in its southern waters. But as access to empty tankers became increasingly limited, new loadings also came to a halt.
TankerTrackers data indicates that Iran’s oil terminals were effectively inactive in terms of crude loadings throughout September.
As of last week, around 15 million barrels of Iranian oil remained on the water in Asian waters. Falakshahi said most of those cargoes had already been sold, meaning Iran effectively has no new oil available for delivery to Chinese buyers.
China is the only major buyer of Iranian crude and purchased an average of around 1.5 million barrels per day from the Islamic Republic over the past year.
Iran also exported around 500,000 barrels per day of oil products and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) last year to buyers including the UAE, China and other Asian countries. Those flows have also stopped since the start of the naval blockade.
Arab oil exports recover
By contrast, Arab countries in the region have restored much of their oil exports and established alternative routes for transporting crude.
Kpler says their crude exports averaged at least 16.5 million barrels per day in September, roughly matching their pre-war average. In the final week of the month, however, exports rose substantially further.
Before the war, nearly 17 million barrels per day of crude and 6.3 million barrels per day of oil products from Iran and Arab countries in the region, including Oman, were shipped to global markets through the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea—a combined 23.3 million barrels per day.
In the final week of September, crude exports from these countries reached nearly 19.5 million barrels per day, above the pre-war level. Oil-product exports, however, stood at around 3 million barrels per day, less than half their pre-war level.
Overall, crude and oil-product exports from the region reached more than 22.4 million barrels per day in the final week of September, just 900,000 barrels per day below the pre-war level.
The comparison is particularly striking because Iran accounted for around 2 million barrels per day of crude and oil-product exports before the war. Excluding Iran, exports from Arab countries in the region have therefore risen above their pre-war level, largely offsetting the disappearance of Iranian supplies from the market.
OPEC data shows that the UAE, which left the group in May, increased oil production to more than 3.8 million barrels per day in August—around 700,000 barrels per day above its pre-war level.
No new data has yet been released on UAE oil production in September. The country has production capacity of close to 5 million barrels per day.
The Iran-backed group has seized Red Sea islands and expanded along Yemen's mainland coast in recent weeks, including taking the port city of Mokha, according to the report. It has also asserted control over the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a key route for global trade and energy shipments.
The Houthis, estimated to have about 350,000 fighters, had prepared for the offensive for months, moving weapons and thousands of troops toward Mokha in August and using their control of telecommunications networks to monitor opponents, the Journal said.
Iranian technology at the core
The Houthis lack a conventional navy but use Iranian-designed missiles, explosive drones, sea mines, armed fast boats and drone boats to project power along Yemen's coast.
Their arsenal includes ballistic and cruise missiles, anti-ship weapons and drones drawing heavily on Iranian technology and components, according to the report.
Around 2015, Iran's Quds Force began sending components for Iranian-designed missiles and drones and dispatched trainers to help the Houthis build weapons themselves, the Journal said.
The assistance helped turn the group into a force capable of attacking Saudi oil infrastructure, disrupting Red Sea shipping and threatening US forces.
China becomes another supply source
"The Houthis now have a new source for the supplies they need to launch their attacks: China," the Journal reported.
Chinese companies are supplying dual-use goods that can serve civilian and military purposes, including components important to Houthi drone programs, according to UN reports and arms experts cited by the newspaper.
The shift comes as traditional Iranian smuggling routes have faced greater disruption. For years, Iran's Revolutionary Guards used small fishing boats to move arms, drone components and missile parts to the Houthis, but many shipments have been intercepted by US forces and Yemeni groups opposed to the Houthis.
Red Sea threat grows
The Houthis have also used Djibouti as a transit point for weapons and traded small arms with al-Shabaab in Somalia, according to UN reports cited by the Journal.
Since announcing a blockade on Saudi shipping on July 20, the group has struck seven vessels in the Red Sea and one in the Gulf of Aden, the report said. Four of the ships were Saudi-flagged.
The Houthis have also targeted Saudi energy infrastructure with missiles and drones, although Riyadh has reported no damage from those attacks.
The posts reviewed by Iran International reflect individual online reactions and are not representative of public opinion in Iran. But they show how the growing economic pressure is being interpreted by people arguing both for and against the blockade.
That pressure has intensified as the US naval blockade sharply curtailed Iran’s oil exports, a major source of foreign currency. Iranian crude loadings fell from about 2 million barrels per day in March to roughly 220,000-255,000 in August, according to shipping data cited by Reuters.
“Great. An air and sea blockade, then a land blockade, will lead to the government’s fall,” one Persian-language social media user wrote.
“The economic blockade is choking it,” another wrote.
Support for continued pressure has also appeared on Reddit. “I said months ago that the blockade is a good strategy,” one commenter wrote, expressing hope that US President Donald Trump would maintain it.
Another user in the discussion described maintaining the pressure as “Great for Iran.”
Taken together, the posts illustrate a view among supporters of the blockade that restricting trade and government revenue could weaken the Islamic Republic’s ability to withstand domestic pressure.
One user argued that the blockade could erode the authorities’ ability to administer and control the country by reducing oil revenue, weakening internal cohesion and increasing economic pressure.
“The blockade is not the objective, but the instrument,” he wrote, arguing that the aim was to increase pressure until the authorities struggled to maintain stability and manage the economy.
Others say ordinary Iranians will pay
Other users rejected the idea that economic isolation would bring political change and warned that the greatest burden would instead fall on the public.
“I don’t know of an example in history where sanctions and an economic blockade caused a revolution. Ordinary people just suffer,” one user wrote on X.
Another said prolonged isolation could strengthen corruption and preferential access, leaving politically connected people better placed to profit from shortages while the wider population becomes poorer.
“This situation could continue for years,” the user wrote, adding that the authorities could blame worsening economic conditions on the blockade.
For others, the consequences are already visible far beyond politics and trade.
“You can’t leave the country by air or sea. All the language exams have sanctioned us. Eighty percent of online games are restricted for Iranians. You can’t even create a Gmail account,” another person wrote on Instagram.
“It’s as though the project to erase Iranians from the face of the earth has officially begun,” the user added.
Dark humor over growing isolation
The restrictions have also prompted sarcasm directed at official assertions of resilience.
After Turkish Airlines suspended its Iran flights until at least March 2027, one commenter ironically invoked a familiar phrase in Iranian political rhetoric: “America can’t do a damn thing.”
“They just keep announcing victories one after another,” another wrote with laughing emojis.
A longer sarcastic comment mocked rhetoric about missiles, drones and military strength before concluding: “If the blockade continues, soon we’ll have to eat grass.”
Economic hardship also featured in discussions on Reddit. One commenter said half their monthly salary went on groceries and food and the other half on rent, leaving them dependent on savings. Another described paying 15 million rials for a kilogram of cold cuts and pickles.
The rial has fallen sharply during the economic squeeze, trading at more than 2.3 million to the dollar in September.
Iran’s official minimum monthly wage is about 166 million rials, worth roughly $71 at that exchange rate, meaning the purchase described by the commenter would amount to about 9% of a minimum-wage worker’s basic monthly pay.
