Iran International
No one can say with certainty whether the current protests will spiral into a revolution. But analysts tell Eye for Iran it is becoming harder to ignore signs that Iran’s theocracy may be entering a period of repeated crises that challenge its ability to function as a state.
Some analysts now warn that Iran may be entering the early stages of regime collapse — not through a single dramatic event, but through a slow erosion of state capacity.
What makes this round different is not only the fury in the streets. It is the growing uncertainty within the clerical establishment, which is leaning more heavily on coercion while projecting less confidence than before.
The protests began with the plunging rial. They have since widened into a broader test of whether the government can still manage a country living in constant crisis. Demonstrations that started in Tehran’s electronics markets have spread across provinces, bazaars and campuses, with chants increasingly aimed at the ruling system itself.
Live fire and deaths have fueled anger, while rare scenes in a religious city like Qom and other cities show crowds refusing to retreat.
A system running out of answers
Shayan Samii, a former US government appointee said the anger goes beyond economic hardship — it reflects a belief that the future has narrowed.
“They are upset because the value of their currency has gone down the drain,” he said. “There is nothing to look forward to.”
That sense of closure, he argued, is what pushes ordinary Iranians to take risks despite repression — a difficult dynamic for a state that relies heavily on deterrence and coercion.
Journalist and author Arash Azizi described protests appearing not only in major cities but in towns once seen as politically quiet.
“There is discontent everywhere,” he said — but protesters “lack leadership” and “lack organization.”
Without that, he warned, unrest can erupt and fade without producing structural change, even as each round leaves the system more brittle.
From an intelligence perspective, Danny Citrinowicz, former head of the Iran branch in Israeli military intelligence, said the deeper issue is not simply mismanagement but the absence of any workable path forward.
“The main problem the regime has is that it has no silver-bullet solution to the economic problems in Iran,” he said. Even if authorities find temporary fixes, “the problem will stay.”
Economic calm, in other words, may only pause — not resolve the crisis.
Cracks inside the ruling class
It is not only public anger that is shifting, said Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute but the mood among elites themselves.
“I have certainly not ever seen this level of hopelessness inside the Iranian regime,” he said.
That kind of discouragement, he added, can be more consequential than unrest alone, opening space for miscalculations and internal rivalries that become harder to contain.
Former US State Department official Alan Eyre cautioned against assuming outside forces can engineer rapid political change.
“Regime change is wildly improbable in Iran right now,” he said — warning that intense external pressure could strengthen hard-liners or push Iran toward greater militarization.
His remarks followed comments by Donald Trump that the United States was “locked and loaded” if Iranian authorities kill protesters — language that energized some activists while raising fears of escalation among others.
Why this wave feels different
Bozorgmehr Sharafeddin, head of Iran International Digital, argued that this round cuts deeper because it points to a crisis of state survival rather than policy error.
“This protest is not about inflation,” he said. “This is about the collapse of the Iranian economy.”
He also noted that international reaction came immediately — a contrast with earlier cycles when global attention arrived more cautiously and later.
Across the conversation, one theme recurred: the state still has the means to suppress dissent — but it is doing so with increasing uncertainty about what comes next.
Protesters are directing anger at the foundations of clerical power, not merely the officials administering policy. Reform promises carry less credibility. And senior figures themselves acknowledge problems they cannot easily fix.
That does not guarantee revolution and it does not mean collapse will come overnight. But analysts say a government that relies primarily on coercion while showing visible doubt from within no longer projects stability.
What emerges, they warn, is a system still capable of force yet less certain of itself with every passing crisis.
You can watch Episode 84 of Eye for Iran on YouTube or listen on any podcast platform of your choosing.
Tehran’s unveiling of a towering statue depicting the Roman Emperor Valerian kneeling before pre-Islamic Persian King Shapur I has renewed criticism of the Islamic Republic’s appeal to nationalist sentiment following the June war with Israel.
For over forty years, the theocracy purged ancient Persian history from schoolbooks, replacing it with post-Islamic narratives. But after the 12-day conflict with Israel, officials have turned to the distant pre-Islamic past to rally a divided society.
From murals of ancient kings and soldiers to patriotic songs added to Shi’ite mourning ceremonies performed before Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Tehran now embraces imagery once deemed heretical by its own revolutionary ethos.
'Kneel before Iran' campaign
Tehran’s Revolution (Enghelab) Square was the scene of an unusual spectacle on Friday as officials unveiled a massive bronze statue depicting Roman Emperor Valerian kneeling in submission before Sassanid King Shapur I, commemorating Iran’s victory at the Battle of Edessa (260 AD).
The event was held under the slogan “Kneel before Iran,” part of what authorities describe as a campaign to project “national unity and historical pride” following the June war with Israel.
Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani, a staunch ultraconservative, said on X: “Enmity with Great Iran can only end in kneeling before this historic nation.”
Municipal official Davood Goodarzi said the installation would be accompanied by visual displays depicting “other victories of Iranians over foreign aggressors,” including the defeat of British forces by local commander Rais-Ali Delvari, Mirza Kuchak Khan’s resistance against Russian troops, and Surena’s triumph over Rome at the Battle of Carrhae in 53 BCE.
The goal, Goodarzi said, is “strengthening concepts such as national dignity, social unity, and Iranian identity.”
The statue, he said, would remain temporarily at Revolution Square before being moved to a city gateway “where it will stand as the first emblem of Iran before diplomats and foreign visitors.”
Unveiled women were allowed to attend the unveiling ceremony—an uncommon scene at events organized by Tehran’s ultra-hardline municipality.
The turn to the pre-Islamic past
The sharp reversal also recalls remarks once made by Khamenei. In a 2011 speech, he asserted that “all the great military victories of this nation came after Islam,” dismissing pre-Islamic accounts as “things that are not documented.”
In 1987, he had said that prophets triumphed over kings such as Cyrus and that “nothing remains of these monarchs in history but names remembered with derision.”
Nevertheless, pro-government social media accounts have now gone so far as to circulate posters equating Khamenei himself with Shapur, showing him standing with a staff as Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump kneel before him. The caption reads: “You will kneel before Iran.”
'Hypocrisy'
Pro-government figures have hailed the move as a patriotic success. Conservative political reporter Hossein Saremi posted: “Today’s grand Iranian gathering showed that people and the state share one essence: Iran itself. Nothing can take our homeland away.”
Others, however, called the spectacle “hypocrisy.” Journalist Gholamhossein Pashaei wrote on X: “Every year you close Pasargadae to stop people from celebrating Cyrus Day, yet you unveil Shapur’s statue in Enghelab Square with drums and fireworks during Fatimiyya (mourning period)!”
Dissident commentator Hamid Asafi called the ceremony “a perfect snapshot of the Islamic Republic’s contradictions.”
On Telegram he wrote: “A week ago they closed Cyrus’s tomb out of fear of the crowds, and now they glorify Shapur in the same breath. The Islamic Republic fears living history but poses for selfies with its corpse.”
He added: “They know people no longer respond to rosaries and sermons. That’s why they’ve brought history back to the stage—in a controlled costume. If they can’t erase the past, they’ll try to own it.”
The irony deepened as UNESCO formally recognized Cyrus’s Charter as one of the earliest human-rights documents.
President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on X: “Iran, the cradle of dialogue, justice, and coexistence, can still inspire peace today.”
Users swiftly replied, questioning how such pride could coexist with a government that blocks access to Cyrus’s tomb each year to those wishing to visit it on his birthday.