As Iran economy falters, populist push to expel Afghan migrants gains steam

With inflation and unemployment mounting, some Iranians and officials are stepping up calls to expel the millions of undocumented and impoverished Afghans in their midst to claw back jobs and government handouts for citizens.

“They have taken many job opportunities,” Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni said during a meeting of provincial governors on Monday, addressing public concerns that foreign nationals were crowding Iranians out of the job market.

Momeni added that more than 1.2 million undocumented immigrants were repatriated in the past Iranian calendar year ending on March 20.

At the same meeting, the head of the Foreign Nationals and Immigrants Affairs Center at the ministry Nader Yarahmadi said 6.1 million Afghans currently reside in Iran. The actual number may be far higher, or up to 15 million, according to unofficial tallies by Iranian lawmakers and media outlets.

Iranian officials and media outlets frequently use the term foreign nationals as a euphemism specifically referring to Afghan citizens.

Afghans began arriving in Iran as refugees in the early 1980s, later joined by economic migrants. Until the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan in 2021, their numbers rarely exceeded two million.

Around 780,000 Afghans hold official refugee status and are not considered undocumented. A small minority of non-refugees are wealthier Afghans who fled after the Taliban’s takeover, while the majority are undocumented economic migrants who provide low-cost labor in sectors such as agriculture and construction and live with or without their families.

Anti-Afghan sentiment has grown significantly in recent years, especially on Persian-language social media, where hashtags such as “Expulsion of Afghans is a national demand” frequently trend.

Advocates for the expulsion of Afghan nationals accuse the government of allowing them to benefit from billions of dollars in subsidies for food, fuel, and other essential services, including healthcare and education.

In addition to monthly cash payments to nearly 90 million Iranians, the government heavily subsidizes basic goods such as bread and fuel. The current fiscal year’s budget allocates 2,500 trillion rials out of 64,000 trillion rials to bread subsidies alone.

No official data quantifying the subsidies specifically received by Afghan immigrants exists.

However, Hamidreza Azizi, a lawmaker representing Eghlid in southwestern Fars Province, said in a recent parliamentary speech that the government spends approximately 7,000 trillion rials on subsidies for energy, food, medicine, and education for Afghan children. “In my constituency, Afghan nationals have taken over the entire job market from Iranians,” Azizi told Parliament.

Iran’s official unemployment rate stands at 7.6 percent, but many believe the real figure is significantly higher, as the government considers anyone working at least one hour per week as employed.

Meanwhile, at least one-third of Iranians live below the poverty line, and workers’ strikes over unpaid wages continue in various sectors.

During his campaign, President Masoud Pezeshkian pledged to tighten border controls, register undocumented immigrants and seek support from European countries—either by encouraging them to accept some refugees or to provide financial assistance.

The relatively moderate President argued that Western policies in Afghanistan have driven millions of Afghans to Iran and that those responsible should share the burden.

“There is no reason the Iranian people should bear the costs of others’ failed policies,” Pezeshkian wrote in a series of tweets prior to the election.