Cautious optimism grows in Tehran ahead of more US-Iran talks

Many Iranian officials, political elites, and many public figures appear to be cautiously optimistic as Tehran and Washington prepare for the next round of nuclear talks, set to take place on April 19.

The optimism stems from what appears to be a shift in Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s position—evidenced by his authorization of earlier negotiations in Muscat—and US President Donald Trump’s insistence that Iran must either accept a deal or face serious consequences. Notably, Khamenei made no mention of the talks during his meeting with military commanders following the Oman round, echoing his silence on other contentious issues such as the mandatory hijab in recent months.

“God willing, the negotiations will move forward in the right direction, public anxiety will ease, and the country can return to a state of calm so businesses can operate with more motivation and confidence,” said Mahmoud Alavi, special aide to President Masoud Pezeshkian and former intelligence minister, on Tuesday. Alavi added that a deal seems plausible because Trump, now positioning himself for the international stage, may prefer being remembered as a “peace hero” rather than a “war hero.”

The former head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, Ali-Akbar Salehi, expressed similar optimism. He said both Tehran and Washington appear determined to reach a positive outcome and dismissed the likelihood of military conflict, adding that Trump has no interest in engaging the US in another war.

Azar Mansouri, head of the Reform Front, echoed this hopeful sentiment in a post on X, describing a “general feeling of optimism” within society. She emphasized that the talks were being coordinated by “all pillars of governance”—a veiled reference to Khamenei and his close circle—and described the process as constructive so far.

Abbas Golrou, a member of the parliament’s National Security Committee, also pointed to consensus within the political establishment. “The entire sovereign system has endorsed the talks,” he said, again alluding to Khamenei’s involvement. “This is the right thing to do.”

In interviews with the reformist daily Ham-Mihan, several former diplomats expressed cautious hope. “This may be the first time we can [realistically] hope for all sanctions—not just nuclear-related ones—to be lifted if the negotiations fully succeed,” said Qasem Mohebali, former Director General of the Foreign Ministry’s Middle East and North Africa Division.

Still, concerns remain. Mansouri warned of potential disruption from hardline factions with significant access to state media and public platforms such as Friday prayer pulpits.

The influence of ultra-hardline opponents of US engagement, including former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and the Steadfastness Front (Paydari Party), appears to be waning amid internal divisions. Even among some hardliners, resistance to negotiations has softened, as outright opposition could now be interpreted as defiance of Khamenei’s authority.

Facing a deepening economic crisis, President Pezeshkian has publicly acknowledged that sanctions must be lifted for any meaningful recovery. As a result, many ordinary Iranians are also pinning their hopes on the success of the talks.

“People are hopeful, cautious, angry, and anxious all at once—but I think most of them are taking the possibility of a deal very seriously,” said Amir-Hossein, a Tehran-based businessman, in an interview with Iran International.

“You can see it in the market,” he added. “People are starting to sell the dollars they were holding onto, which shows they believe the rial might strengthen if sanctions are lifted," he said, adding that in his view Khamenei has realized that he has no option other than capitulating to save himself and the Islamic Republic from annihilation.

Indeed, the Iranian rial has appreciated in recent days, and the main index of the Tehran Stock Exchange has rebounded sharply—surpassing its all-time high from January after months of decline.