Neither surrender nor peace: Khamenei opts for strategic delay

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's oft stated mantra of "no war and no negotiations" with the United States became untenable when US President Donald Trump gave a stark ultimatum that he reach a nuclear deal or face attack.

But his acquiescence to US-Iran talks in Oman on Saturday is no wholesale foreign policy rethink or road to Damascus moment: it’s a calculated attempt to buy time.

With Trump back in office and US military power amassing in the region, Khamenei is reverting to a familiar strategy: de-escalate just enough to avoid war, preserve the Islamic Republic’s strategic position, and wait out American pressure.

The meeting on Saturday in Muscat is not aimed at resolving the nuclear standoff or reimagining Iran’s regional role. It’s about lowering the temperature while holding onto the core pillars of Iranian power: the nuclear program, the missile arsenal and the regional proxy network.

This is a playbook Khamenei has used for decades: resist until pressure becomes untenable then pause, rebrand retreat as “heroic flexibility,” and regroup.

The phrase was deployed in 2013 to justify his negotiations with the Obama administration, casting diplomacy with Tehran's hated enemy as in line with precedent set by beleaguered Islamic leaders in times past.

Hibernation

In 2019, when Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe brought a message from then-President Trump, Khamenei publicly trashed him: “I do not consider Trump a person worthy of exchanging messages with.” 

At the time, there was no imminent threat of war. Today is different. US B-2 stealth bombers are within striking distance and two carrier strike groups patrol the region.

When a message reportedly containing a direct threat was delivered recently via an Emirati official, Khamenei studied it and the circumstances closely.

His assent to talks is less a pursuit of detente and more a strategic hibernation.

Khamenei knows war is the one scenario that could shatter the domestic control and regional clout the wily 85-year-old autocrat has built up for decades.

Slowing enrichment, muzzling proxies and entering talks buys him time without sacrificing his accomplishments.

The Islamic Republic is weakest on its home front. Sanctions have ravaged the economy. Sporadic protests from 2017 to 2022 - all quashed with deadly force - have exposed cracks in the edifice of his rule.

A war could push those toward breaking point.

A tactical negotiation, by contrast, offers the topmost leadership breathing space on the streets, among elites and within the ruling system.

Survival instinct

A keen survival instinct has defined Khamenei’s rule. Since becoming President in 1981 and then Supreme Leader in 1989, he has outlasted seven US presidents and weathered assassination attempts, sanctions, cyberattacks, sabotage, isolation and bombing.

Key to his longevity is adjusting tactics, but never core goals.

The 2015 nuclear deal was not a concession but a gain. Iran accepted temporary caps on enrichment but secured international recognition of its right to enrich—a red line Khamenei had long defended.

The 3.67% cap was low, but the principle was enshrined. A higher percentage could wait. When Trump left the deal in 2018, Khamenei didn’t escalate immediately, but bided his time.

Once Biden, perceived as less belligerent, came to office, Iran accelerated its program. Enrichment rose to 60% by the end of his term, advanced centrifuges were installed, and underground facilities expanded.

According to the United Nations nuclear watchdog, Iran now possesses enough highly enriched uranium to build several nuclear weapons if it chooses to.

De-escalate, regenerate

With Trump back in power and military pressure mounting, Khamenei is adapting to survive. The hope is likely to de-escalate, rein in the nuclear program, quiet the proxies, and preserve its infrastructure to avoid provoking direct confrontation.

Iran’s influence in the region has eroded significantly. Hezbollah is under pressure. Hamas is boxed in. Perhaps most significantly, Iran has lost Syria as a key ally, depriving it of a key pillar of its regional axis.

Still, Iran does not see these setbacks as irreversible. Israeli officials often describe the Islamic Republic as an octopus with a head in Tehran and limbs spread across the region. When an octopus loses a limb, they can grow back.

Khamenei believes that if the system survives Trump, its regional reach can regenerate.

Time and money

Key to those hopes will be mollifying the United States for as long as Trump is in office - a goal which could plausibly be achieved by restraining nuclear activity and scaling back proxy operations, with or without a deal.

If that restraint can be packaged into an agreement, all the better.

A deal would formalize what he is already prepared to do and buy yet more time. If it comes with sanctions relief or cash, it will be no compromise but an outright win: a payment to wait Trump out.

But the red lines remain. If Trump’s team demands the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, permanent limits on missile capabilities or the disbanding of its regional allies, talks will collapse.

Khamenei seeks not peace in our time but more time on the clock.

Diplomacy, in this context, is not a gateway to a new regional order but a heat shield against a blowup. The goal is not to settle but to survive.

A calculated pause could mark the start of another cycle of hibernation in a long game in which confrontation is still the overall policy of a supreme leader who knows war is the only thing he cannot afford.