Iran struggling to support Hamas in Gaza as war resumes - Israeli intelligence center

The head of a leading Israeli intelligence research center says Iranian support for Hamas in Gaza has been hampered since the war began, as the strip has been locked down, with efforts now refocused on Tehran's allies in the West Bank.

“Iran has a big problem to bring supplies and physical support to Gaza now because it’s closed so nobody can get anything inside, like ammunition,” said Shlomo Mofaz, the head of the Meir Amit Intelligence and Research Center in Israel

Speaking to Iran International, he said: “Maybe some things are being smuggled with the aid, or food, or from Egypt by UAVs, but mainly they have a problem. The main focus of Iran is the West Bank, where there are a few ways they are supporting Hamas and other groups, mainly from Jordan where there is a long border and no fence in many places.”

Since Iran-backed Hamas invaded Israel on October 7, 2023, killing around 1,200 mostly civilians and taking 251 hostages to Gaza, the Israeli military has locked down the strip’s borders amid the longest Gaza war since the Islamist group took control of Gaza in 2007.

After several weeks of ceasefire, last week, Israel resumed military operations in Gaza in a bid to put pressure on Hamas to release the dozens of remaining hostages in the strip.

In 2022, now assassinated Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh told Al Jazeera that his group had received $70 million in military help from Iran. "We have rockets that are locally manufactured but the long-range rockets came from abroad, from Iran, Syria and others through Egypt," he said.

The US State Department estimated in 2020 that Tehran’s support for Palestinian terror groups, including Hamas, reached $100 million a year.

“The smuggling to the West Bank starts in Syria to Jordan but since the change in regime, it’s a bit harder there too as Israel has more control over what’s going on in southern Syria, but there are still some groups continuing,” added Mofaz, a leading intelligence expert in Israel.

However, financial aid is continuing through the likes of Bitcoin so Iran-backed armed groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the West Bank can buy arms on the black market.

He explained that much of the activity involves collaboration with Arab criminal groups inside Israel, who help smuggle ammunition into the West Bank. While some weapons are also assembled using commercially available materials, he noted this is less significant.

He added that Iran continues to smuggle dollars, but doing so has become more difficult. With no IRGC presence currently in Syria, the supporting infrastructure has been greatly reduced since the fall of the regime.

Just last month, Israel's defense minister announced that its war on Iran-backed groups in the occupied West Bank could go on as long as another year as Tehran refocuses its efforts in the wake of the Gaza war.

Speaking about the operation named 'Iron Wall, Defense Minister Israel Katz said: "We will not return to the reality that existed in the past. We will continue to clear refugee camps and other terrorist hotbeds in order to dismantle the battalions and terrorist infrastructures of extremist Islam that were built, armed, financed and trained by the Iranian axis of evil."

Mofaz said that from the Israeli side, security and military agencies have been working hard in the West Bank. “The intelligence is very good, much better than it was in Gaza before the war,” he said.

Overall, Mofaz says Iran’s allies, known as the ‘axis of resistance’, in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza have been significantly weakened, aided by the fall of the Assad government in Syria which has taken away a major military stronghold for Iran abroad.

“Iran has less air defense to defend from US and Israeli airstrikes after Israel’s last attack,” Mofaz said. "The change in the regime in Syria is another issue. The routes on the ground to Lebanon have been closed. By air, that’s also difficult from Damascus now.

The IRGC's influence has been significantly curtailed since Assad's ousting from Syria. Israel has repeatedly targeted the Syria-Lebanon border, particularly the tunnel network, and the Lebanese army now controls the country's borders following the US-France brokered November ceasefire.

As Iran explores Iraq and Turkey as alternative routes, these options are drawing increased attention, particularly after Israel exposed the Turkey route and warned against its development.

Regional experts broadly agree on the weakening of the so-called axis. However, Arman Mahmoudian, a GNSI research fellow and USF lecturer, argued in a January Stimson Institute article that a weakened Iran could increase the nuclear threat.

”There is growing concern that a weakened and increasingly vulnerable Iran, governed by a survivalist regime, may see no alternative but to weaponize its decades-long nuclear program,” he warned.

“While the Axis of Resistance is now significantly weakened, its diminished state still presents considerable dangers for the United States’ position in the Middle East and the broader stability of the region. A fragile Iranian regime, desperate to survive, may become an even greater source of instability.”