Iran's moment of truth: will 2025 be the year of war or a nuclear deal?

Iran is nearing a fork in the road, marked by what may be the most consequential decision yet to be made by the country’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei: war or a deal with the US administration of Donald Trump.

That’s according to Mark Dubowitz, the CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a well-known voice on Iran policy in Washington D.C. He's a staunch critic of the Islamic Republic who has been sanctioned by Tehran in 2019.

"I think the Supreme Leader faces probably the most fateful decision of his 35 years as supreme leader," Dubowitz told Eye for Iran, "Is he (Ali Khamanei) going to do a peaceful nuclear deal or is he going to have the United States and Israel take down his program and potentially take down his regime."

The preservation of the Islamic Republic is at stake, and this year could either result in the downfall of more than 40 years of Islamic rule over Iran or it may actually help keep it in power, described Dubowitz on the podcast.

"I think 2025 is going to be an interesting year, " said Dubowitz, "It could go the other way."

"It could be a nuclear deal that actually ends up being a bad deal for the United States, for Israel and for the region. There's a risk that President Trump does a bad deal, calls it the greatest deal ever negotiated."

Military action, what could it look like?

President Donald Trump has publicly said that he prefers diplomacy over war with Iran, and during the election campaign he vowed "to end wars."

As part of a diplomatic push, Trump sent a letter to Khamenei offering to negotiate on the nuclear issue, giving Iran a two-month deadline to reach a deal or face severe consequences, according to Axios.

That is one way the United States is preparing for all scenarios, laying the groundwork for anything from talking to military action.

"The Trump administration fully understands that 2025 is a critical year and President Trump will not let the Iranian regime get nuclear weapons," said Dubowitz.

What remains unknown is how Iran will respond especially given how weak the country is domestically with growing dissent, a free falling currency and the loss of regional influence with the degradation of its allies in Lebanon and Syria.

"There's a lot of rhetoric, overblown rhetoric," said Dubowitz, "Their capabilities don't match their threats.

The Israeli's have made it clear they are eager to engage in military strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities. Dubowitz believes the Unted States would support such action to a certain degree, whether in a joint military action or by supporting Israel in its efforts.

It also remains to be seen just how much influence Israel can have on the United States and if the Americans can flip Russia against Iran through a ceasefire in Ukraine favouring Moscow's interests.

High level Israeli delegates will be meeting with US officials in the White House next week to discuss Iran. That is part of Trump's calculus on creating leverage against the Islamic Republic, said Dubowitz.

But a potential war would not look like American-led coalitions in Afghanistan and Iraq, he added, but could include precise targets against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ports and bases - including spy ships supporting the Houthis.

"We're going to create deterrence by punishment, " Dubowitz told Eye for Iran.

President Trump has made his position clear: “Iran must stop the sending of these Supplies IMMEDIATELY,” he wrote on X. Trump told Iran the country would be held responsible for any attacks by the Yemenis militant group.

US-led strikes have targeted the militant group’s training sites, command centers and weapons facilities since last week. The Houthis claimed attacks targeting American warships in the Red Sea area, as well as a missile launch against Israel.

Iran has tried to distance itself from the Houthis to evade responsibility.

Although Iranian leaders like IRGC Chief Commander Hossein Salami have issued dire warnings of "tough, decisive, and devastating" retaliation, Dubowitz believes Tehran's capabilities fall short of its threats. However, the regime retains the ability to sow chaos globally through agents and sleeper cells.

A missed opportunity for Iranians

The central focus of Trump's Iran policy is to cut off all pathways to Iran getting a nuclear bomb.

While Dubowitz praised the current administration's Iran policy thus far, he said Washington has failed to provide maximum support to the Iranian people.

The mere existence of the clerical establishment means a deal, no matter how many safeguards are in place, would not work in the long term, according to Dubowitz.

The best way to prevent a nuclear bomb in Iran and to prevent aggression in the Middle East and West is for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic, said Dubowitz.

The best way to achieve that, in his view, is to support the people of Iran.

"I do believe this regime is going down, but we need to actually be serious about this and we need a policy of supporting the Iranian people to help bring it down."

He emphasized the need for practical support mechanisms, including establishing labor strike funds, bypassing internet shutdowns, and launching cyber operations to blind the government's security apparatus during uprisings.

"Shame on us if we're not ready to support the Iranian people the next time they're on the streets," said Dubowtiz.

The decisions made in 2025 will not only define Iran’s future but will also reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and beyond.

Whether Iran embraces diplomacy or conflict, the reverberations will be felt across the globe. The stakes can hardly be higher.

You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran with the FDD's Mark Dubowitz on YouTube or listen on any podcast platform like Spotify, Castbox, Apple or Amazon.