Putin's mediation between US and Iran would transform nuclear standoff

Russian President Vladimir Putin's agreement to mediate between the United States and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program adds new layers of complexity to an issue which already threatened to add a new war front to a conflict spanning Eurasia.

Moscow's entrance onto the scene either flips an Iranian ally against its nuclear ambitions or provides a spoiler which drags out talks and buys the Islamic Republic a breather from looming Israeli strikes.

The initiative follows a direct request from US President Donald Trump during a phone call on February 12, 2025, with subsequent discussions taking place between top officials from both administrations in Saudi Arabia.

The Kremlin has expressed its commitment to facilitating peaceful negotiations between Washington and Tehran. This positions Russia as a key intermediary, leveraging its established relationships with both nations.

Historically, Switzerland has been acting as a diplomatic conduit between Tehran and Washington since the early 1980s. Several Arab states have also offered their mediation services on various occasions, including the Sultanate of Oman, Qatar, and, more recently, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Russia’s diplomatic involvement, however, presents a different dynamic.

Deep state access

As a global power and a permanent member of the UN Security Council, Russia has cultivated a strong security partnership with Iran, particularly since the onset of the Ukraine war in February 2022.

Russia’s unique access to Iran’s deep state provides President Putin with significant leverage to pressure Iranian decision-makers into making nuclear concessions—an essential step in preventing military escalation in the coming months.

From Iran’s perspective, Russian involvement in resolving the “Iranian nuclear problem,” as Russian officials term it, presents both an opportunity and a challenge.

Under Russian diplomatic oversight, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may find it more difficult to maintain his strategy of nuclear escalation vis-à-vis the Trump Administration, including rhetorical threats to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and outright rejection of negotiations.

Tehran might become more open to indirect and discreet dialogue with Washington if Moscow encourages it to do so.

Unlikely boon

Beyond the potential impact on Iran’s nuclear strategy, Russia’s mediating role offers the Iranian political establishment a means to achieve its primary goal: avoiding both war and substantive nuclear or regional negotiations with Washington during Trump’s second term (2025-2029).

A Russian diplomatic intermediary could help ensure the security and survival of the Islamic Republic, deterring a potential US-backed Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. But the shifting balance of power following a US-Russia rapprochement means Iran could once again become a bargaining chip in renewed US-Russian diplomatic negotiations at the presidential level.

In other words, a closer Trump-Putin relationship could reduce Tehran’s strategic relevance in Moscow’s eyes. This short-term marginalization of Iran does not signify the end of its pragmatic partnership with Russia but rather the potential reemergence of US influence over Iranian decision-making through Russian mediation.

Since the early 2020s, Iran has advanced its uranium enrichment activities, prompting international concerns over possible nuclear weapon development—claims that Tehran consistently denies despite growing internal political debate on potential nuclear militarization.

The US remains steadfast in preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, working closely with allies like Israel to address these concerns. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), designed to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities in exchange for sanctions relief, has been under strain, especially following the US withdrawal from the agreement in 2018.

This led Iran to deviate from its commitments. A potential future Russian mediating role could temper the Trump Administration’s inclination to align with Israel’s hardline approach against Iran’s nuclear advancements, potentially reducing the likelihood of an Israeli military strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure.

Mideast: Russian returns

Beyond the Iranian nuclear issue and regional policy, Russia’s recent diplomatic manoeuvres underscore its ambitions to reassert its role in Middle Eastern affairs in the post-October 7 era.

This potential return is facilitated by its ongoing rapprochement with Washington and the possibility of a ceasefire in Ukraine in 2025.

The proposal to restore direct air links between the US and Russia, discussed during negotiations in Istanbul, signifies a potential thaw in relations. Talks also addressed the normalization of embassy operations, reflecting a mutual interest in improving diplomatic and economic ties.

However, Russia’s deepening ties with Iran add complexity to its role as a mediator, especially in the context of rising military tensions between Iran and Israel, the US’s primary ally in the region.

In January 2025, Russia and Iran signed a comprehensive 20-year strategic partnership agreement covering defense, technology, energy, and trade sectors. While this partnership strengthens bilateral relations, it may also compromise Russia’s impartiality in mediating US-Iran tensions.

Looking ahead, Russian mediation could lead to renewed negotiations aimed at reviving or restructuring a nuclear agreement that addresses the shortcomings of the JCPOA.

Such an agreement could ease some economic sanctions on Iran while implementing stricter nuclear oversight. However, the success of these efforts will depend on the willingness of both the US and Iran to engage in constructive dialogue and make necessary concessions.

Russia's strategic interests and geopolitical priorities—particularly in the event of a ceasefire in Ukraine—will play a crucial role in shaping the outcomes of these diplomatic initiatives in the coming months.