Will Pezeshkian’s arch-rival use local elections to expand ultra-hardliner power?

Ultra-hardliner Saeed Jalili and his allies—widely regarded as President Masoud Pezeshkian’s chief rivals—are maneuvering to expand their political influence through upcoming city and village council elections, according to Iranian media speculation.

While Jalili only briefly referenced the importance of these elections in a speech last week, his public appearances and speeches have notably increased in recent months. In these speeches, Jalili emphasized that the development budget allocated to the country’s top cities exceeds the national development budget, pointing to the significance of these local councils.

“It appears that Jalili’s statements should be considered a signal of the [active] participation of him and his supporters in the seventh city council elections,” an article published by Rozan Online read on Saturday.

The publication’s report also argued that these elections could intensify rivalries within the hardliner/ultra-hardliner camp, particularly in cities like Tehran, where Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, a former mayor of the capital, and his supporters still wield some influence in the municipality.

Jalili and his supporters’ plans for the elections on June 19 will not only heighten competition among three factions—led by Jalili, incumbent Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani, and Ghalibaf—but could also lead to new coalitions or deeper divisions within this political faction, Rozan’s piece noted.

Ghalibaf has been relatively supportive of Pezeshkian’s “national unity” government and is often accused by Jalili’s supporters on social media of betraying the “revolutionary cause.”

Jalili has no executive experience. He led Iran’s nuclear negotiations during the presidency of populist Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and currently represents Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC). Additionally, he serves on the Expediency Discernment Council (EDC), also by Khamenei’s appointment.

“The Jalili circle has become hyperactive in parliament and on social media in unison with him,” a piece by Khabar Online read – a media outlet linked to former conservative parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani.

The publication speculated on Saturday that securing control over city and village councils could be a stepping stone for Jalili’s presidential ambitions in the next election.

Khabar Online’s report also suggested that if Jalili’s supporters gain a majority in the Tehran City Council, he could position himself as the mayor of the capital, following Ahmadinejad’s footsteps, who later became president.

Jalili, who competed against Pezeshkian in the June 2024 runoff presidential election, does not formally lead any political party. However, he has strong backing from the ultra-hardliner Paydari Party and its allies, including the Iran Morning Front (Jebhe-ye Sobh-e Iran), a political party established only a year ago. Both parties officially endorsed and campaigned for Jalili in the recent presidential election.

Jalili and his supporters are staunchly opposed to any negotiations with the United States regarding Iran's nuclear program, missile capabilities, and regional influence. They also reject Iran's accession to Financial Action Task Force (FATF) conventions, which could help remove Iran from the global money-laundering watchdog’s blacklist.

The ultra-hardliner Paydari Party, a small but influential faction in parliament, has been behind several controversial legislative efforts, including the strict hijab law and the recent attempt to impeach Economy Minister Abdolnasser Hemmati. The Paydari Party and the Iran Morning Front also have a strong presence in key state institutions, including the state-run broadcasting organization (IRIB), where Jalili’s brother, Vahid Jalili, serves as a cultural deputy. In this role, he wields significant influence over IRIB’s policy direction.

The city and village council elections are the only elections in Iran that do not require candidate vetting by the ultra-hardliner Guardian Council, allowing for broader participation than in parliamentary and other elections.

In smaller towns and villages, competition in local government council elections is often driven by ethnic and tribal factors which may bring more voters to the ballot boxes.

However, in major cities like Tehran, where political concerns take precedence, voter turnout could be very low like in last year’s parliamentary elections.