Military option cannot eradicate Iran's nuclear program, expert warns

Iran can rebuild nuclear facilities hit by air attacks which would delay but not ultimately destroy Tehran's disputed program, expert on US-Iran relations Sina Azodi told the Eye for Iran podcast.

Iran can rebuild its capacities within six to twelve months of a strike, Azodi said, citing publicly available estimates which he said could undermine the rationale of an attack aimed at knocking out the program.

"Once you know how to make a car, it doesn't matter how many times you get into a car accident. You can still rebuild it," said Azodi, a lecturer at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University.

"If anyone's thinking about the military solution, they have to keep that in mind.

Iran denies seeking a weapon but the United States believes Iran's stepping up of enrichment levels to near weapons-grade means Tehran seeks that capability.

The United States assesses that Iran could rapidly build a nuclear weapon should it decide to do so, according to a November 2024 intelligence report which said there were no indications yet it was building a bomb.

Time may be running out for a peaceful resolution to the nuclear standoff.

The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post reported last week citing US intelligence findings from last month that Israel saw an opening for an attack on Iranian nuclear sites as early as the first half of this year.

Israel has repeatedly sought to thwart Iran's nuclear advancements through sabotage and assassinations, but Azodi said the program was barely set back.

"Last time around, when the Israelis had sabotaged the Natanz assembly line, we were told that Iran's nuclear program has been postponed by six months. But we saw that in a matter of three weeks or four weeks, Iranians began enriching at the same factory to 60% enrichment."

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has forbidden the development of nuclear weapons but a senior advisor said last year that an existential threat could prompt a reconsideration of the injunction.

An attack, Azodi said, could push Tehran toward a race for a bomb to guarantee its survival.

"If you're going to attack that program and you cannot destroy it in the entirety, you're giving Iranians more incentive to go for the ultimate weapon of defense, which means that you're going to have to launch an air campaign every few months to make sure that Iran doesn't get to that point."

Attacks on foes of Israel in the early stages of their quest for nuclear technology may not provide helpful comparisons to any strike on Iran, he added, as those efforts were centralized and in their infancy.

"The Iraqi and the Syrian cases were successful because their programs were not dispersed. They were very much in the initial stages of their nuclear journey," he said.

"But in the Iranian case, we have long passed that stage."