Canadian Iranian journalist and documentary filmmaker
The clerical establishment in Tehran has lost the battle for the hearts and minds of Generation Z and hopes now to win the loyalty of Gen Alpha, Middle East analyst Holly Dagres told Iran International.
"It's really a battle of generations," said Dagres, a senior fellow at think tank the Washington Institute's Iran program.
"Gen Z, Gen Alpha as well, as they come of age, are really pushing back against the Islamic Republic's norms and they're really trying to take back their country. Whether they succeed is another thing."
Dagres, who specializes in Iranian youth and curates the newsletter the Iranist, said the Iranian government realizes they may have already lost Gen Z so are staking their hopes for staying in power on their successors.
“They've been actually looking at the next generation, which is Gen Alpha."
"When they came up with the song Salam Farmandeh or Salute Commander. Mostly when you see kids it's Gen Alpha kids that are part of the regime choirs and also they're being forced to sing it at schools."
Gen Z, or those born between 1997 and 2012, make up less than 7 percent of the population but were at the forefront of the 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom uprisings demanding women's rights and the end of the Islamic Republic.
Though the protests were largely stamped out, the generation remains restive.
“(Tehran is) having to think ahead because really they're struggling and I think the prime example of how they struggled here was the Woman, Life, Freedom uprising itself. It was led by Gen Z girls and women,” said Darges.
The Islamic Republic is thinking outside the box, appealing to Persian nationalistic motifs to form the minds and win the battle of the new generation.
“They've made a play about the Shahnameh or the Book of Kings. They're really trying to tap more into Iranian nationalism, which is much more palatable to the average Iranian, regardless of age these days than more Islamic motifs," said Dagres.
A recent viral video showcases a reporter asking Gen Zs to identify the clerics in photos they presented. The girls could not tell the difference between Iran’s current Supreme leader Ali Khamanei and the founder of the Islamic Republic Ruhollah Khomeini.
The kids had no problem identifying K-pop bands and Billie Eilish, however. The moment illustrated how little interest the youth have in their rulers.
Iran’s Gen Z formed a counterculture, the opposite of what the government was trying to force onto them, consuming Western music, movies all in an underground way, Dagres said. But they are not afraid to showcase their color dyed pink hair and skateboards.
The fact that women and girls are increasingly not wearing the mandatory hijab, she said, showcases the subtle ways Iranians are resisting.
In a scene which went viral online, a group of Iranian schoolgirls raised their middle fingers at a portrait of Iran's leaders in a classroom, in another sign of sharp defiance.
Authorities used extreme force to quell their rebellion after the death in morality police custody of a young Gen Z'er, Mahsa Jina Amini, in 2022.
Sham trials, confessions forced through torture and a wave of executions in 2022-23 claimed the lives of many of their number, including 23-year-old Mohsen Shakari and Majidreza Rahnavard, both promising youths hanged for their activism.
Declining marriage and birth rates
Gen Z is also the generation that is coming of age and often holding off on getting married and have children.
So much of that is a result of their connection to less traditional Western culture, but also high unemployment, concerns over climate change, inflation in Iran and a rejection of Islam and tradition, Dagres said.
Islamic Republic officials say that by the year 2101 the population in Iran will halve even as neighboring countries experience rising birth rates.
Iran’s once-youthful population is aging fast. That has stirred concerns over a lopsided economy and a potential healthcare collapse in the future.
The United Nations (UN) projects that by 2050 one-third of Iranians will be 60 or older, representing a three-fold increase from 2021.
Iran’s Ministry of Science has called for the removal of educational content deemed to discourage people from having children to combat declining birth rates.
The average Iranian household went from 6 per family to three and now a growing number of youths are choosing to live with their partners.
It is a phenomenon in Iran called white marriage, where two unwed people live together, replacing the traditional marriage proposal where families would help set up relationships.
The latest findings from the state-run National Population Research Institute suggest the number of registered marriages in Iran has dropped dramatically since 2011 with almost half a million marriages registered - a fall from the peak of 891,627 marriages in 2010.
The Rejuvenation of the Population and Protection of the Family (RPPF) law, enacted by the Iranian Parliament in 2021 under a directive from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, imposes penalties for actions deemed to discourage marriage and childbearing.
Iranians struggling with depression
Depression is rife in Iran, Dagres said, with Iranians now turning to drugs like opium and alcohol which is haram or religiously banned to ease the pain. The economic hardships and day-to-day repression lead to their depressive state.
“Some of these Gen Z'ers are so desperate for a hit of alcohol because they become so addicted that they're purchasing ethanol from a pharmacy and drinking it," said Dagres.
With the demographics of Iran dramatically changing, Gen Z appears to have largely decided to seek change, and the Islamic Republic's influence over Gen Alpha has yet to be felt.
Only time will tell what sort of future the youth of Iran will achieve.
