Loss of Syria and financial stress preclude Iranian strike on Israel, generals say

"Judea and Samaria has become a central arena in the map of threats to Israel and we are preparing to respond accordingly," Katz said, using the Biblical names for lands on the west bank of Jordan River which Israel seized in a 1967 war.

"We are seeing increasing efforts to promote Palestinian terrorism in Israel through the smuggling of advanced weapons, funding and guidance both on the part of the Iranian axis and on the part of the radical Sunni Islamic axis that is strengthening its grip on the region after the events in Syria,” he added.

Violence in the West Bank has spiked in recent weeks as Iran copes with military losses dealt by Israel to its armed allies in the region, especially in Syria, which had provided a key strategic and military base for Tehran.

In Lebanon, Iran's most powerful ally Hezbollah suffered a huge blow after Israeli bombardment of critical infrastructure and the group’s leadership since September, while Hamas in Gaza has been weakened since its attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, led to the longest Gaza war since the group took control of the enclave in 2007.

The series of setbacks to Iran's network of military allies has, according to Israel, led to a renewed focus on the West Bank as part of Tehran's war against its archenemy.

“Iran-backed terrorist groups, including Islamic Jihad, al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades, and Hamas, have proliferated in number and strengthened their presence in the West Bank in recent years," Joe Truzman, an expert on Palestinian militants wrote in The Long War Journal.

“Iranian arms and funding have primarily fueled this violent escalation,” he added, saying the groups have established armed cadres in the West Bank cities of Nablus, Jenin, Tulkarm and beyond.

”Iran has established itself in our sector and over half a million citizens of the State of Israel are sitting on a ticking time bomb," Israel Ganz, a top leader of Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank, said on Tuesday.

"We must not continue to live here with the same concept that existed on the sixth of October.”

The announcement comes on the back of a deadly attack which saw three Israelis killed in a shooting on a car and bus near the settlement of Kedumim this week.

In the latest 2024 statistics, Israel’s internal security agency the Shin Bet said it had thwarted 1,040 significant attacks in the West Bank and Jerusalem during 2024.

These included 689 shooting attacks, 326 bomb attacks, 13 stabbing attacks, nine rammings and a kidnapping. It was a 40 percent increase in 2023, it said.

Since the Oct. 7 attack, dozens of Israelis and hundreds of Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank.

Addressing a Security Council meeting on the situation of Syria, Amir-Saeid Iravani called Israel "the greatest threat to the present and future of Syria.”

“Israel continues to violate Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the Security Council must take decisive action to stop and hold Israel accountable for its destabilizing actions," he said.

Since the beginning of Syria's civil war in 2011, Israel has carried out hundreds of strikes in Syria to quash Iran’s influence and interrupt supply routes to Hezbollah in Lebanon, its most powerful armed ally in the region.

In December, the Bashar al-Assad government - a key pillar of Iran’s influence in the region - fell despite 13 years of Iranian military support.

Iravani said Iran's presence in Syria "has been legal, in accordance with international law and at the request of the Syrian government at the time."

Iran's military withdrawal, he added, was "carried out responsibly, taking into account the potential impacts on the Syrian people."

Iranian forces have largely quit Syria following Assad's fall, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing US, European, and Arab officials.

Members of Iran’s Quds Force have now relocated to Iran and pro-Assad militia groups have disbanded, the report added, citing a senior US official.

According to Western and Arab officials cited, most forces in eastern Syria—including Iranian Revolutionary Guards officers and Afghan, Iraqi, Lebanese and Syrian fighters—retreated to al-Qaim, a border town on the Iraqi side.

Some Iranian personnel based in Damascus flew to Tehran, while Hezbollah fighters in western Syria fled overland to Lebanon, they added.

Criticism of Iran’s massive investments and military intervention in Syria is mounting, deepening the Islamic Republic's legitimacy crisis. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the institution of Velayat-e Faqih are at the center of public discontent and protests over these policies.

The Islamic Republic's vulnerability has been highlighted by several setbacks since mid-September, including the weakening of Hezbollah and Hamas, and the degradation of Iran’s air defenses and ballistic missile production capabilities by Israeli strikes. The delayed retaliation to the Israel's attack (October 2024) has angered some hardliners.

For years, Khamenei’s supporters have seen Assad as a linchpin in their vision of a Shiite crescent stretching from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon. Assad’s Syria served as a buffer against Sunni extremism and a conduit for Iran’s influence via armed groups like Hezbollah. Losing it represents not just a geopolitical setback for Tehran, but the potential unraveling of the Axis of Resistance that Iran painstakingly cultivated over the past decade.

Disillusionment of loyalists

Many of Khamenei’s followers, who had invested ideological fervor in this alliance, are grappling with deep disappointment and a crisis of faith in their leadership.

One striking example came from Bisimchi Media, an outlet close to the intelligence unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which accused Khamenei of passivity in responding to Israel’s attacks. This was perhaps the first critical assessment of the leader’s actions. Although the criticism was swiftly retracted and the media outlet’s editorial board issued an apology, it revealed growing dissatisfaction among the states hardline supporters.

Following that unprecedented event, Tasnim News, a far more prominent IRGC outlet issued a warning against deviations and lapses of loyalty to Khamenei, emphasising the need to adjust with his pace and direction. That the warning went beyond an internal discipline and found its way into the public showed that tensions were becoming harder to contain even within the state’s closest ranks.

Prominent figures like Hadi Zarea, a member of the Quds Force in Syria, have publicly criticized Iran’s strategy, accusing IRGC leadership of exaggerating successes and creating additional challenges for the country. These critiques highlight an expanding rift among loyalists and further embolden the opposition.

Leader's rallying cries

To counter this, voices close to the supreme leader’s office have tried to inject optimism and raise spirits, echoing Khamenei’s advice to show resilience in defeat and humility in victory. Still, the despair is palpable among those who had believed the Iran-led Axis of Resistance was invincible.

Assad’s rule was presented as proof of Shiite resilience. Its collapse not only diminished Iran's territorial reach but forced its advocates to face the harsh reality that their strategic calculations may have been overly optimistic.

Moreover, the potential emergence of a semi-democratic or Sunni-led government in Syria could significantly alter the regional power balance, isolating Iran and its allies further. This scenario raises concerns about a resurgence of Sunni extremism, which could destabilize Iran internally.

Shift in domestic balance of power

Khamenei needs his loyal followers to quell unrest and prolong his rule. But many in those ranks are now grappling with disillusionment. Some are questioning Iran's foreign policy and call for introspection and reassessment. It remains to be seen if and how Khamenei would rally his base and address their growing concerns in the face of a rapidly changing regional landscape.

The fall of Assad has profound psychological implications for Iranian society. Millions of Iranians seeking structural change in Iran now perceive the state as weaker and less capable of imposing fear and repression. This perception erodes the government’s authority and helps dissidents to bolster resistance and collective identity. Activism may gain momentum as people grow more confident in challenging the state’s propaganda and misinformation.

Hope on one side, passivity and fragmentation on the other, could signal potential for more powerful uprisings and dynamic social movements that challenge the unjust, inept rulers of Iran.

While Iran is not yet a failed state, it exhibits characteristics of a failing state, including economic mismanagement, judicial misconduct, infrastructure decay, and inadequate social services. The weakening of the Axis of Resistance and continued foreign policy defeats have undermined public support for the government, eroding its ability to maintain control. As the rulers' authority deteriorates, citizens are more likely to act radically, further destabilizing the state.

Mehran is one of 176 people killed when the Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) shot down Ukraine International Airlines PS752 over the skies of Tehran with two surface-to-air missiles on January 8, 2020.

On Monday evening, Mehran’s younger brother Arman, and other families of PS752 victims gathered in Vancouver and across Canada to mark the somber anniversary.

“The pain of that moment has not lessened. It's a wound that remains open,” Arman told Iran International.

Iran initially denied responsibility, but admitted to shooting down the airliner three days later after mounting evidence made Tehran's culpability clear. Iranian authorities continue to maintain that the incident resulted from human error.

The victims' families remain unconvinced, however, with many believing the attack was aimed at the West.

176 photos and ornaments with the victims' faces adorned on a white Christmas tree at the Vancouver event commemorating the lives lost.

Most of those killed were Canadians, permanent residents of Canada and people with ties to the country who were visiting family in Iran during the Christmas break.

Seeking justice and accountability

Amid heaving sobs, one mother who lost her daughter said, "it still feels like one long day that just won’t end," inconsolable.

Arman, like many of the families, is trying to cope with grief while seeking justice not only for their families but for all Iranians facing oppression, he said.

Canada, Sweden, Ukraine and the United Kingdom have taken Iran to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) over the downing of the airliner. The four countries announced the move in 2023 shortly after the deadline passed for Iran to submit arbitration under the Montreal Convention.

“It’s long a journey but this is one step closer to justice,” Arman said.

During the candlelight vigil, Arman told Iran International that seeking accountability is a part of preventing future similar tragedies.

“When we delay justice, it gives the atrocities to the criminals to do what they do. We should urge the international community to hold them accountable to prevent such tragic events from happening again,” Arman said.

Many of the families of the victims said that since the tragedy the Iranian government has been targeting them and trying to silence them.

On Oct 30, 2023 Manzar Zarabi, an Iranian resident who lost two children, a daughter-in-law, and her five-year-old granddaughter Sofie was detained by Iran’s security forces for several days before being released.

Canadian Iranian human rights activist Hamed Esmaeilion — whose wife and daughter were killed on the flight — said his mother was banned from leaving Iran for at least six months last year in response to his activism.

While Arman hasn't been directly impacted by official intimidation on Canadian soil, he said his family in Iran has, but declined to elaborate citing their safety.

"It's very hard," Arman said. "They are alone and I'm here,"

Khamenei said the presence of American forces in Iraq is illegal and against the interests of the Iraqi people and government.

"Evidence and indications point to the Americans' efforts to solidify and expand their presence in Iraq, which must be firmly resisted as an act of occupation," he said in a meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani in Tehran.

Iran-backed armed groups in Iraq have been launching attacks against American forces and their allies in the region over the past decade.

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI), a coalition of Tehran-backed militants, said in a statement last year they would continue their attacks until the Americans are “expelled from the country, forced to submit and are defeated."

The IRI is not the only group of Iran-aligned Shia groups in Iraq.

The Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), known as the Hashd al-Shaabi in Arabic, is another umbrella group of primarily Shia armed factions in Iraq that receive support from Iran. Unlike the IRI, the PMU is a formal part of the Iraqi armed forces and reports directly to the Prime Minister.

In his meeting with Al-Sudani, Khamenei referred to the PMU as one of the key elements of power in Iraq, saying " the Hashd al-Shaabi must be preserved and further strengthened with utmost dedication."

Khamenei's remarks came three days after Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani arrived in Baghdad to meet with leaders of the Shia factions including the Hashd al-Shaabi, Emirati outlet Erem News reported citing an Iranian source.

Ghaani was set to discuss Washington's pressure on the Iraqi government to dissolve the PMU or integrate it into the Iraqi armed forces, the report added.

The Hashd al-Shaabi was established in 2014 following a religious decree to combat Islamic State, which at the time had taken control of four Iraqi governorates and threatened Baghdad.

Supported by the IRGC, the groups wield considerable power over Iraq’s governance, military and energy infrastructure.

Despite their original mandate to combat ISIS, many of the militias have since expanded their activities, frequently targeting US forces and installations in Iraq with rockets and drones and exacerbating tensions between Tehran and Washington.