What’s on the agenda for Iraqi PM's Tehran visit?

Iraq’s prime minister is set to visit Tehran on Wednesday to discuss regional issues following the tumultuous events of 2024, including the overthrow of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad and the decline of Iran’s regional influence.

On Monday, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, told reporters that Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani will focus on discussing the situation with Syria’s new government. Both Iraq and Iran are navigating cautiously amid the radically changed dynamics in the region.

Arab media reported on Sunday that the commander of the Quds Force of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was visiting Baghdad to meet the leaders of Tehran-backed Shia groups as well as the Iraqi prime minister, Arab media reported Sunday.

Esmail Ghaani (Qaani) and several of his advisers in the Quds Force arrived in Baghdad on Sunday morning to meet with the leaders of the Shia factions and the head of the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), Falih al-Fayyadh, Erem News reported citing an Iranian source.

There have been recurrent reports and analysis about Iraqi government plans to restrict the Iran-backed Shia militia groups. In fact, as opposition forces were moving toward Damascus last month to depose Assad, the Iraqi militia did not cross the border to defend him.

A pro-Hezbollah newspaper in Lebanon reported last month that the Iraqi militias reached a deal with the government not to attack Israel. The move reflected concerns about escalating conflicts in the region and fears of Iraqi security being endangered after insurgents took control in neighboring Syria.

Some regional and Iranian media outlets speculate that al-Sudani’s visit to Tehran may aim to persuade the Islamic Republic to halt its support for Shiite militias. While it remains unclear whether the prime minister’s agenda is that bold, the role of these militias in Iraqi politics is likely to be a key topic of discussion.

The Iranian Rouydad24 website, citing Arab media, said that al-Sudani’s agenda is securing guarantees from Tehran to cease its support for militias and Iran-aligned groups in Iraq, urging Iran to respect the decisions of the Iraqi government, and ensuring Iraq's immunity from any military operations by the US or Israel launched from Iraqi territory are expected to be key demands.

It is believed that Israeli, and possibly US, warplanes could launch missiles at Iran using Iraqi airspace. Reportedly, Israel employed this tactic during its October airstrike on Iran.

Alaeddin Boroujerdi, an influential Iranian lawmaker, told local media last week that the Iraqi Prime Minister might be delivering a message to Iran, though he did not specify its source. The Tehran-based Etemad Online suggested that the message likely originates from Washington, urging Baghdad to curb Iranian-backed militias and Shiite groups.

An Iraqi journalist in Baghdad, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Iran International that significant developments are expected in January and February as President-elect Donald Trump takes office.