Why 2025 is set to be tougher for Iran

At the start of 2024, Iran appeared to be riding high: ever closer to the threshold of nuclear weapons, its regional allies harassed Israel on multiple fronts and its Yemeni acolytes the Houthis choked commercial traffic from the Red Sea.

85-year-old Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's method of projecting power abroad and tightening his grip at home appeared to be working.

What a difference a year makes.

Tehran's affiliates Palestinian Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah have been decimated by Israel while Islamist rebels hostile to Iran toppled Syria's Assad dynasty, a key ally.

Iran is now adrift in a decisive year, Kamran Matin, an international relations scholar at the University of Sussex told the Eye for Iran podcast.

“All of this has come together and created a very difficult environment for the Islamic Republic, all of which is even more difficult to deal with in light of the Supreme leader's deteriorating health and his age,” said Matin.

Iran’s regional and international strategy is closely tied to how it can control and shore up influence domestically.

Part of the modus operandi of the Iranian system is to blame domestic troubles on sanctions and regional conflicts, promising that investment in nuclear infrastructure and militant proxies can buttress its standing in a dangerous neighborhood.

That rationale, Matin said, has evaporated and the mystique of Iran’s regional strength has lost its luster.

There have been 54 anti-government protests in Iran since Dec 26 and Jan 2 of this year according to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a Washington DC-based think tank critical of the Islamic Republic.

Iran now faces a sobering realization of its diminished stature.

Race for a deal, or the bomb?

Up against deepening economic malaise as Iran’s currency slips to new lows, an energy crisis which has stoked protests and the loss of regional muscle which deterred enemies, Iran’s rulers now have limited options.

They are at a crossroads, with each path presenting huge risks: race toward a nuclear bomb as an ultimate security guarantee or make concessions to President Donald Trump and compromise the state's very raison d'etre as a scourge of empire.

The answer may hinge on Trump’s plan for Tehran, a country that according to American intelligence has allegedly plotted to kill him.

The president-elect, who has surrounded himself with Iran hawks for his next administration has suggested bombing Iran into “smithereens" for the alleged assassination attempt.

At the very least, Trump will likely apply maximum pressure and more economic sanctions on an already crippled economy, which would squeeze Iran's rulers further.

“It's unclear how Iran is able to negotiate with some sort of strength to be able to extract any concession from the United States and Western powers,” said Matin.

Iranian officials and state media Iran moot talks with Trump more eagerly, tamping down their former rhetoric of resistance and confrontation.

That could signal fear amongst the ruling elite and an understanding of their weakened position, said Matin.

In a speech last month after the collapse of Assad, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei addressed a somber crowd, blaming Israel and the United States for Iran not intervening to save its ally.

“Khamenei basically declared this impotence that American and Israelis had closed all the roads and so on and so forth,” said Matin on the speech, which was devoid of Khamenei's usual affirmations of strength.

The last standing in the Axis of Resistance - the Houthis

The Islamic Republic's woes may mean an opening for the Americans like never before that could force Iran to bargain away its regional satrapies, or face attack.

“Trump is much more willing to take on Iran, given how Israel has basically neutralized Iran's proxy forces,” said Matin on the changing tides.

Yemen's Houthis, Iran's last relatively robust military ally, will likely be a priority.

The Iran-backed group has fired drones and missiles towards Israel frequently for over a year, describing it as an act of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy's Maritime Attack Tracker recently tallied 106 confirmed Houthis strikes on shipping since November 2023.

"There have been many more attacks recently on (the Houthis) by Israel and the US-led coalition," Matin said.

"So it may well be that they will also be pacified over time, especially if Iran itself is weakened. And maybe one of the elements in the future talks between Iran and the US would be Iran stopping its supply of advanced weapons to Houthis."

Indirect impact of Trump: a loss of Russia for Iran?

The return of president-elect Trump to the White House will likely mean yet more bad news for Iran’s Islamic establishment.

One of Trump’s first goals is to fulfill his promise to end the war in Ukraine.

If Trump follows through as he is forecasted to, Iran will lose leverage with key ally Russia, another partnership that helped it project power on the world stage.

That would lead to another major blow to the Islamic Republic.

“Russia is likely to restore its damaged relations with the West, with the United States in particular," Matin said. "That also means in turn that Russia does not necessarily need to accommodate Iran's demands or needs in order to keep Iran on board in terms of supplying drones and other weapons to Russia to be used in Ukraine.”

Ukraine's foreign ministry in early September said Russia had launched 8,060 Iran-developed Shahed drones at Ukraine since 2022, according to a Reuters report.

Syria, formerly an Iranian satellite state, was another issue binding Moscow and Tehran.

"Both of them were involved supporting Assad regime. Neither of them are there anymore. What really binds Iran and Russia together is this wider tension each of these countries have with the West, with the United States,” Matin said.

It seems with Iran's dwindling influence, domestic unrest and battered allies throughout the region, 2025 is poised to be a decisive year for Tehran.

To watch the full Eye for Iran episode with Kamran Matin, click on YouTube or listen on Spotify, Apple, Amazon, Castbox or any other major podcast platform.