Soleimani's assassination weakened Iran's regional power

Five years ago, Qassem Soleimani was killed under the direct orders of then-US President Donald Trump, in a watershed moment in the Middle East, triggering a series of setbacks for the Islamic Republic.

The decision to eliminate the mastermind behind Tehran’s expanding military and political influence from Iraq to Lebanon and Yemen demonstrated how removing a single figure can disrupt an entire system—and alter a region's dynamics.

Soleimani was a key architect of Iran’s Middle East strategy. Though not the commander-in-chief of the Revolutionary Guards, he was its most influential leader. His impact on the regime’s regional policies far outweighed that of any elected official, including Iran’s president.

The aftermath of his assassination revealed the strategic significance of Trump’s bold decision on January 3, 2020. The resulting shifts in regional power dynamics and successive defeats for Iran and its Quds Force highlighted how this single act disrupted Tehran’s ambitions.

General Kenneth McKenzie, then-head of US Central Command (CENTCOM), detailed the operation in his book Degrade and Destroy. McKenzie explained that Soleimani had been within US targeting range before, but former President Barack Obama refrained from authorizing his assassination due to fears of escalation. This restraint allowed Soleimani to consolidate his influence across the Middle East. Trump’s decisive move, however, ended that era.

McKenzie also noted that forces under Soleimani’s command carried out 19 attacks on US bases in Iraq in 2019 alone. A December 2019 strike that killed an American contractor became the immediate trigger for the decision to eliminate Soleimani.

The assassination dealt a major blow to Iran’s influence in the region, particularly to the Quds Force. It sent a clear message to Tehran: escalation would be met with decisive retaliation. Soleimani’s death exemplified this strategy and revealed vulnerabilities in Iran’s regional power structure.

Following Soleimani’s killing, Iran’s proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and other militias, experienced significant operational setbacks. The regime struggled to fill the void left by Soleimani, a reality so stark that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei publicly sought to downplay the impact. However, Iran’s diminished influence in the Middle East became undeniable.

More recently, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hardline policies have further altered the region’s dynamics. Tehran’s miscalculations, including encouraging Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel, prompted an intensified Israeli campaign against Iran’s proxies.

These actions led to the defeat of Hamas, the weakening of Hezbollah, and even the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. As a result, Iran’s regional proxy network has been severely eroded, leaving its influence significantly diminished.

The decisions by Trump to eliminate Soleimani and by Netanyahu to target key Iranian and proxy leaders demonstrate how firm action against the Islamic Republic can reshape regional dynamics. Today, the effects of these decisions are evident in the weakened state of Iran and its proxies across the Middle East.