IRGC deputy pledges attack on Israel at the right time

Speaking after a weekly cabinet meeting, Mohsen Paknejat dismissed the reports as part of “the enemies’ psychological warfare,” pointing blame to the impact of global sanctions, stating, “We have no problems with selling oil, and measures have been put in place that will continue to prove effective in the future.”

The United States imposed third-party sanctions on Iran’s oil exports in 2018 when it withdrew from the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal. China has been the only major buyer who has allowed Iranian oil to enter its refineries, gradually increasing the volume since 2021.

Earlier this month, reports surfaced suggesting a significant drop in Iran’s oil deliveries to its primary consumer, China, during October and November. A commodities trader added to the speculation last week by tweeting that sales to China halved in December, falling below 800,000 barrels per day, compared to nearly double that amount during the first eight months of 2024.

However, data from tanker tracking firm Kpler shows that there is no clear evidence of such a substantial decline, making conclusions about December's final numbers as yet unclear. Iranian oil offloading in China can fluctuate significantly day-to-day, with below-average deliveries in the first half of the month potentially being offset by above-average shipments in the second half.

Earlier this month, Iran International reported that Tehran’s oil deliveries to China showed a steadily decline in October and November, based on information received from tanker tracking firms.

The decline could have several reasons, among them the closure of the small Chinese refineries due to environmental reasons. Another reason could be the return of Donald Trump who has pledged to resume his “maximum pressure” on the Islamic Republic of Iran.

China accounts for 95% of Iran's oil exports, but it does not purchase the oil directly. Instead, small independent refineries buy Iranian oil after it is blended with crude from other countries, ensuring it is not labeled as Iranian by Chinese customs, in order not to overtly violate the US sanctions.

Nevertheless, as Iran offers significant discounts to Chinese buyers and absorbs the additional costs of concealing shipments to bypass sanctions, it fails to generate sufficient revenue to sustain its oil-dependent economy.

Since the imposition of US sanctions, Iran’s currency has depreciated 18-fold, while persistent inflation has exceeded 40% over the past five years. The sanctions have also hindered the country’s ability to invest in maintaining natural gas production and upgrading its power grid, resulting in severe energy shortages that have paralyzed the country.

Western officials, security experts, and Iranian trading sources cited by the news agency said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) now control up to half of the country's oil exports, up from around just a fifth three years ago.

The Islamic Republic, despite harsh sanctions by the United States and its allies, generates more than $50 billion a year in oil revenue - a key lifeline for foreign currency.

Iran's entire oil industry has now fallen under the sway of the Revolutionary Guards, Reuters reported citing over a dozen interviewees, including the ships covertly transporting sanctioned crude to logistics and front companies facilitating oil sales.

China is Iran's top customer and China Haokun Energy, a front company operated by former Chinese military officials, remains an active conduit for the sales despite being slapped with US sanctions last year.

The sources, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic, shared insights derived from intelligence documents and tracking ships linked to the IRGC.

Last week, Iran International reported that the Revolutionary Guards are attempting to sell oil stored in China ahead of tougher sanctions expected under US President-elect Donald Trump, according to an informed source.

The source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that Iranian authorities have instructed the IRGC to sell the sanctioned oil stored at Dalian Port in northeast China through intermediary firms.

The IRGC’s increasing dominance in the oil sector strengthens its overall influence across Iran's economy and complicates the effectiveness of Western sanctions, as the organization is already designated as a terrorist group by the United States and its allies.

According to Iran’s national budget, at least $12.6 billion from oil exports is allocated to the IRGC. This revenue enables the group to sell oil primarily to Chinese buyers and fund its military capabilities and allied militias in the Middle East.

Iran circumvents US and allied sanctions by rebranding its oil, often using tankers from a dark or shadow fleet operating in Malaysian and Singaporean waters.

These tankers relabel Iranian oil as originating from Iraq, the UAE, Oman, or Malaysia, after which it is delivered to China's smaller independent refineries, known as teapots.

While Shandong Port in China remains the primary hub for this rebranded oil, tanker-tracking data shows a notable increase in shipments to Dalian Port this year.

In response, the US Treasury Department recently blacklisted 45 tankers involved in transporting Iranian oil to Shandong. Despite these measures, over 100 large vessels in the dark fleet remain unsanctioned, according to data from Vortexa, continuing to transport Iranian oil to China, albeit at reduced volumes.

The MP expressed concern that Iran’s regional allies might view such behavior among the youth unfavorably, interpreting it as a reflection of poor judgment rather than an affinity for these nations.

“Should foreign photographers or international media outlets circulate images of our people wearing garments adorned with the American or Israeli flag, our standing in the Islamic world and among the members of the Axis of Resistance [Tehran-backed armed groups] would be severely compromised," he added. "It must be emphasized that many of the young individuals who bear tattoos of the American flag or don attire featuring it do so out of ignorance, and not from any heartfelt belief in the United States or Israel."

This sentiment comes as Tehran hardliners regularly burn Israeli and US flags during rallies, chanting "Death to Israel" and "Death to the US" They also paint these flags on pavements to encourage people to trample them. However, for years, many Iranians—particularly students at universities—have actively avoided stepping on the American and Israeli flags painted by agents of the Islamic Republic.

During a roundtable discussion hosted by Sazandegi newspaper, conservative politician and Expediency Council member Mohammad Reza Bahonar, former senior lawmaker and centrist politician Hossein Marashi, and Mahmoud Vaezi, a senior aide to former president Hassan Rouhani, carefully avoided directly naming Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as the ultimate authority responsible for the country’s major shortcomings.

They spoke cautiously, as some of their critical remarks touched on highly sensitive topics, including constitutional changes and political reforms. The veteran political insiders would not have voiced such criticisms publicly two or three years ago, before Iran's regional influence began to wane and its economic situation reached a critical stage.

They highlighted issues including the government's lack of resources, largely due to massive expenditures in the Middle East aimed at undermining Israel—spending that was undertaken without the consent of the Iranian people or parliament (Majles), as they noted.

Marashi said, "Iran's priority should be addressing its economic crisis," and "politics in Iran should not be left to military organizations," likely referring to the central role the Revolutionary Guards play both in political and economic spheres.

He added: “The government’s priorities remain focused on outdated ideological issues, such as enforcing the hijab on women and restricting access to information on the Internet, rather than tackling the country’s pressing economic crises.”

These failures have left the nation struggling in darkness and cold since November, as the oil-rich country continues to fall short in producing sufficient natural gas and electricity in generating sufficient oil export revenues.

A huge part of the country's income from oil is kept outside the government's treasury and under direct supervision of the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guard.

On December 16 all government offices and schools in 26 of the 31 Iranian provinces were shut down due to blackouts, power shortages and consumption of pollutant fuels in many power plants.

Without elaborating on what was wrong with the Iranian Constitutional Law, Bahonar said that “all the articles of the constitution can be revised except a few that are about the essence of Islam and the nature of the political system as a republic.”

His remarks likely implied that institutions such as the Guardian Council, which hinder free and fair elections, could be dismantled, and that articles granting extraordinary powers to the Supreme Leader could be revised. This would help curb unnecessary spending on religious institutions and costly military ventures abroad.

Elsewhere in their debate, the three politicians said that many of Iran's problems are caused by flaws in the structure of its political system. Without saying how the current system has led to a dictatorship under the Supreme Leader, they called for a democratic political system like those in Japan, Pakistan, Germany, France and the United States.

Marashi criticized Pezeshkian for taking pride in lacking a clear plan for his government or a political party to advance his ideas. He also pointed to the Islamic Republic’s core doctrine, which centers on its ongoing struggle against what it calls “arrogant powers”—a concept now largely synonymous with anti-Americanism.

He argued that “this doctrine cannot drive meaningful progress and must be reformed, much like how China abandoned its rigid ideological approach to achieve development.”

Marashi went on to question the extensive powers of Iran's Judiciary and the absence of judicial independence. He also criticized the current Majles for consistently obstructing the government’s ability to fulfill its responsibilities.

Additionally, he emphasized that Iran’s economy has been held hostage by its nuclear program for the past 19 years. Highlighting the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, he said: “Even maintaining our allies in power depends on prioritizing the economy.”

At the same time, perhaps in an effort to absolve President Masoud Pezeshkian of responsibility for the current crises, three other conservative figures, in reports published by Nameh News website, emphasized that "the Pezeshkian administration has inherited the current economic and political problems from previous governments."

“Everyone, especially women, should be vigilant about the enemy’s soft tactics and not be deceived by slogans and temptations,” Khamenei said in a meeting with a group of women on Tuesday.

"They label it as defending women, advocating for women's rights, or supporting a group of women," he added, pointing to the 'Woman, Life, Freedom' movement. "Yet, under the pretext of defending a single woman, they incite unrest in the country."

The 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom movement began after the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in police custody. The ensuing crackdown, which led to the deaths of at least 550 protesters, was described as a crime against humanity by a UN fact-finding mission.

In his first public statements following the uprising in 2022, Khamenei said the protests had been engineered by Iran's enemies and their allies.

As the hijab war continues, the government has now officially postponed the implementation of the latest and most controversial hijab law, which imposes severe penalties on women and girls who defy veiling requirements, following widespread backlash from the public and international community.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council, in a letter to parliament on Saturday, requested that the implementation of the Hijab and Chastity law be halted. A member of the parliament's presiding board stated that this delay is to allow the government to submit an amended version of the bill for parliamentary review.

Last week, Amnesty International condemned the new law, stating that it intensifies the oppression of women and girls while exposing activists opposing the rules to charges that carry the death penalty.

Amnesty noted that the law, drafted in May 2023, less than a year after the Woman, Life, Freedom uprising, was introduced in response to widespread defiance of compulsory veiling by women and girls.

Iran-backed forces will endure - Khamenei

In his speech, Khamenei emphasized that Tehran's armed groups in the region, including Hamas and Hezbollah, remain strong despite significant challenges posed by external forces.

Addressing the situations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, Khamenei condemned the actions of the United States and Israel, calling their assumption that resistance would end a grave miscalculation.

"They thought resistance was over," Khamenei said. "They are gravely mistaken. The spirit of Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah is alive; the spirit of Sinwar is alive. Their martyrdom has not removed them from existence. Their path continues."

Khamenei dismissed Israel's military operations in Syria, warning that its efforts to encircle and eliminate Hezbollah forces would ultimately fail. "The one who will be uprooted is Israel," he said.

While Israel maintains that it has no interest in conflict with Syria and rarely comments on specific strikes, it has carried out a series of operations targeting weapons facilities and military infrastructure. Since the fall of President Bashar al-Assad, Israel has intensified strikes against military installations across the country.

On Monday, multiple large explosions rocked Syria's coastal areas — home to Russian and pro-Assad military bases, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Israel also maintains troop presence inside the buffer zone and beyond, citing efforts to prevent a repeat of the October 7 attacks, in which Iran-backed Hamas infiltrated Israeli territory, killing over 1,100 people and taking more than 250 hostages.