As winter looms, Iran faces widespread shutdowns over energy shortages

Iran is grappling with sweeping closures of public facilities, a move officials attribute to lower temperatures and the need for energy management while the country suffers massive shortages.

Schools, universities, government offices, and banks have been shuttered in regions stretching from Tehran to West Azarbaijan, with worse winter months still to come.

Authorities say the measures are necessary to conserve resources. However, energy experts warn of a far more critical issue: a deepening infrastructure crisis.

Mehdi Arab Sadegh, an energy diplomacy analyst, has predicted severe repercussions if current conditions persist.

“Iran is on the brink of a 40% blackout in just 18 days,” he said in a statement on X. According to him, the nation’s strained infrastructure, limited liquid fuel reserves, and overburdened gas-to-electricity systems are driving the closures.

In Tehran, schools, offices, and universities were closed Sunday due to concerns over falling temperatures and air pollution. The northern provinces of Mazandaran and Golestan have taken similar steps, shutting down institutions and non-emergency offices in a bid to conserve energy.

In South Khorasan, local task forces ordered all government facilities to close, while West Azarbaijan announced closures aimed at saving gas and electricity.

The scale of the shutdowns echoes this summer’s electricity blackouts when Iran’s power grid collapsed under peak demand during soaring heat.

Iran’s energy sector has long struggled with systemic failures stemming from decades of underinvestment. Despite being home to some of the world’s largest natural gas reserves, the country faces a staggering $250 billion investment shortfall in its oil and gas sector and an additional $19 billion gap in its electricity infrastructure.

These failures have led to recurring blackouts, affecting Iranians during both the intense heat of summer and the cold of winter.

Recent policy shifts have only deepened the strain on households. In November, higher gas tariffs were introduced to increase state revenue. Although officials have blamed citizens for excessive consumption, energy analysts argue the real problem lies in outdated infrastructure and insufficient capacity to meet growing demand.

Arab Sadegh outlined the dire state of the grid, explaining that the South-to-North gas exchange corridor is overstretched and unable to meet the needs of power plants. “If we manage to supply 150 million cubic meters of gas daily, it would be a significant achievement,” he added.

The economic backdrop is equally dire. On Saturday, the Tehran currency market saw the value of the dollar surge past 750,000 rials, driven by rising geopolitical tensions and speculation about renewed US pressure. With inflation already squeezing Iranian households, critics argue the closures reflect the government’s inability to address the crisis comprehensively.

The government’s handling of energy issues is further complicated by its financial priorities abroad. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently said that the Islamic Republic has spent over $20 billion to support Hezbollah, while Iranian officials have acknowledged spending $30 billion in aid to Syria. Critics contend that these expenditures have exacerbated domestic crises, diverting funds from critical infrastructure investment.

Meanwhile, Iran has turned to petrochemical units to produce naphtha as a substitute for gasoline. While cheaper, naphtha is more polluting and less efficient.

As closures and energy shortages disrupt daily life, the government has sought to shift responsibility onto citizens. In a recent video appeal, President Masoud Pezeshkian urged Iranians to reduce consumption to help address shortages in the energy system. Yet, the crisis appears far from resolved. Tehran's air pollution remains severe, and experts warn that the current measures are insufficient to prevent further disruptions.

Iran’s ability to navigate the coming months will depend on whether it can balance domestic demands with its geopolitical ambitions. For now, the country remains trapped in a cycle of shortages, shutdowns, and makeshift solutions, as millions brace for what could be a harsh and uncertain winter.