Iran’s foreign ministry has dismissed reports that its embassy in Damascus is being evacuated. Meanwhile, some Iranian media outlets have started to acknowledge the possibility that Bashar al-Assad could be overthrown in the near future.
Foreign ministry’s spokesperson Esmail Baghaei announced on Saturday that “The news regarding the evacuation of the Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Damascus is not true, and it continues its activities as usual.”
Syrian insurgents have made unexpected territorial gains in the past ten days, capturing large cities and positioning themselves just 200 km north of the capital Damascus. Iranian-backed forces have withdrawn from many positions together with the Syrian army, with no sign that Tehran is willing to commit large forces to defend Assad’s rule. His other ally, Russia, has also been largely inactive, with reports of some forces leaving Syria, as Moscow is bogged down in its invasion of Ukraine.
One of the more influential news websites in Tehran, Rouydad 24, carried an interview on Saturday with a well-known Iranian analyst, Mohammad Bayat, who said that Assad’s days as president of Syria might be numbered.
“Damascus is effectively under siege, and Bashar al-Assad will sooner or later relinquish power—unless Iran or Russia take significant action in the coming days to slow this trajectory. Otherwise, we must prepare to adjust our relations with a new government in Syria,” Bayat said.
This represents a rare candid acknowledgment permitted in Tehran's state-controlled media, which has consistently downplayed the significance of events in Syria. Meanwhile, many observers worldwide view Assad’s successive defeats as a major setback for Iran’s Islamic government.
Bayat in his assessment also said, “HTS forces have now entered Homs, captured Daraa, and there is even talk of their control over As-Suwayda, previously known as a stronghold of Assad's social base…Given the collapse of the Syrian army, they have concluded that moving toward Damascus is also achievable.”
In interviews with Arab media on Friday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also spoke with less certainty and commitment about Assad.
“We are not fortune-tellers, and it is impossible to say or predict that Bashar al-Assad will fall; however, the resistance will certainly fulfill its duty,” Araghchi said, referring to regional forces operating under Tehran’s direction.
The insurgents prepared to continue their rapid advance on Saturday, while government forces scrambled to reinforce collapsing frontlines and launched bombardments on insurgent positions around Homs in an effort to preserve President Bashar al-Assad's 24-year rule.
Syria's military reported conducting airstrikes around Hama and Homs while bolstering forces on that front. It also stated it was repositioning troops near Daraa and Suweida, without addressing the rebels' capture of these areas.
