The United States assesses that Iran could rapidly build a nuclear weapon should it decide to do so, according to a November 2024 intelligence report released Thursday which said there were no indications yet it was building a bomb.
"The Intelligence Community continues to assess that as of 26 September 2024, Iran is not building a nuclear weapon. Tehran has, however, undertaken activities that better position it to produce one, if it so chooses," the Office of the Director of National Intelligence report said.
"Iran has continued to increase its stockpiles of 20-percent and 60-percent enriched uranium, manufacture and operate an increasing number of advanced centrifuges, and publicly discuss the utility of nuclear weapons," the report added.
These enriched uranium levels far exceed civilian needs, the ODNI said, and could be converted into material for more than a dozen nuclear weapons with further processing.
The ODNI’s assessment aligns with remarks made by Rafael Grossi, the chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) who on Friday told Reuters that Iran's capacity to produce uranium enriched to up to 60% purity, near weapons-grade, has seen a dramatic increase.
The ODNI report also highlighted a shift in public discourse within Iran, where officials and analysts are increasingly discussing nuclear weapons as a deterrent, particularly after Israeli airstrikes in April.
"This debate risks emboldening nuclear weapons advocates within Iran’s decision-making apparatus and shifting the thinking of current and future Iranian elites about the utility of nuclear weapons," it warned.
Kamal Kharrazi, a senior advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said last month that Iran possesses the technical capability to produce nuclear weapons and indicated that the country's stance could change if faced with an existential threat.
Iran's ballistic missile arsenal, the largest in the Middle East, is also evolving.
The report noted that Tehran is "incorporating lessons learned from its missile and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attack against Israel in April and from Russia’s operational use of Iranian UAVs against Ukraine."
Coupled with its space-launch vehicle program, these advancements could reduce the timeline for developing intercontinental ballistic missiles if Iran pursued them.
The ODNI cautioned that further sanctions or attacks on Iran’s nuclear program could prompt Tehran to enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels, install additional advanced centrifuges, or even withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
