Iran downplays Aleppo losses, vows continued support for Assad

Iranian officials have downplayed the capture of Aleppo by Syrian opposition forces, framing the loss as a minor setback while doubling down on their support for Bashar al-Assad.

The swift capture of Syria’s second-largest city by opposition groups, including Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has dealt a blow to Iranian-backed forces and raised questions about Tehran’s long-term strategy in the region.

Commander Hossein Daghighi, an advisor to the IRGC, vowed retaliation, saying, "The enemy is incapable of taking any effective action, as the resistance networks have been systematically organized.”

His remarks coincided with reports by opposition forces indicating that Assad's forces and his allies have been in retreat from their position around Aleppo.

“Their attempts to meddle in Syria will result in their hand being decisively severed, leaving a mark on history that will not be forgotten," Daghighi said on Saturday.

Another Iranian official commented, “The enemy has exploited the ceasefire conditions in Lebanon and seeks to plunge Syria into chaos.”

“I assure you that the enemies will fail as they have in the past," Iraj Masjedi, Deputy Coordinator of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guard, said on Saturday.

Islamic Republic officials use the term "enemy" to refer to Israel or the United States.

Iranian state media also echoed this defiance, warning of repercussions for what they called a sedition. Despite such declarations, the rapid collapse of pro-Assad forces in Aleppo marks a challenge for Iran's Islamic government.

The fall of Aleppo comes after years of Iranian support for Assad’s military, including financial aid, weapons, and personnel from the IRGC and allied militias such as Hezbollah. These forces have propped up the Syrian regime in its efforts to reclaim territory since the civil war began in 2011. However, the latest rebel offensive has demonstrated the limits of Tehran’s capabilities that have weakened in recent months because of relentless Israel attacks against Hezbollah.

Opposition forces have exploited weaknesses in Assad’s overstretched troops, many of whom rely on Iranian support. Mustafa Abdul Jaber, a commander in the Jaish al-Izza opposition brigade in Syria, told Reuters that Iran’s focus on other fronts, including Gaza and Lebanon, has left gaps in its ability to defend Assad’s forces in Aleppo.

However, Iranian state media have also sought to downplay the implications of Aleppo’s loss, portraying it as part of a broader Western and Israeli plot to destabilize the region.

The Kayhan newspaper accused the US and its allies of reviving “takfiri terrorists” to pressure Iran to resume negotiations with the West over its nuclear dossier and disrupt its regional influence.

It claimed the goal was to sever vital communication links between Iran and its allies in Lebanon and Gaza.

"The Resistance Axes are the arms of Iran, our allies, and our friends. An attack on them is an attack on our capabilities. Over the past couple of days, during the war in Syria and Aleppo, several Iranians have been martyred. Therefore, the ultimate and primary target of this new war and the 'Aleppo sedition' is Iran."

Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, had earlier condemned the rebel offensive as a violation of Syria’s sovereignty.

“According to the existing agreements among the three guarantor countries of the Astana Process (Iran, Turkey, and Russia), the outskirts of Aleppo and Idlib are considered de-escalation zones. Terrorist groups' attacks on these areas constitute a blatant violation of the Astana Process agreements and put the positive achievements of this process at serious risk,” said Baghaei on Thursday.

However, these statements fail to mask the broader setbacks Tehran is facing. The death of senior Iranian IRGC commander General Kioumars Pourhashemi during the Aleppo clashes underscores the high costs of Iran’s involvement in Syria.

Rouydad 24, a moderate Iranian news website, reported that the resurgence of Syria's civil war is linked to recent developments in Gaza and Lebanon.

It that from the perspective of the attackers and their strategists, the ceasefire in Lebanon and Hezbollah's commitment to the agreement, "Hamas's isolation in its uneven war with Israel," and Russia's preoccupation with the war in Ukraine have created an opportunity to corner Bashar al-Assad and his political system.

“If successful, this opportunity could, on the one hand, secure Israel's security interests by limiting the Resistance Axis's ability to support Hezbollah and, consequently, Hamas, while also altering the foreign policy stance of Assad's political regime. On the other hand, it could force Damascus to accept demands pursued by Turkey and the United States through their occupation of parts of Syrian territory,” Jalal Khoshchehreh, an analyst wrote for Rouydad 24.