After Hezbollah ceasefire, will Israel's contest with Iran move to Syria?

Syria could be the next theater in the evolving struggle between the Islamic Republic and the Jewish state, former Israeli intelligence official and advisor on Arab affairs Avi Melamed told the Eye for Iran podcast.

Syria may be an overlooked player in Israel's regional contest with Iran, especially after a US-brokered ceasefire paused its fight Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon.

But with Hezbollah nursing deep wounds from a 14-month war, the Iran-backed group's ability to continue buttressing Syria's beleaguered government may be in doubt, possibly accelerating Damascus's alignment with moderate Arab states.

“The story of Syria is going to become enormously significant because it cannot be detached from the story of Lebanon,” said Melamed.

Israeli forces last week announced they had carried out a series of airstrikes in Syria targeting what it called a Syrian-backed smuggling route for Iranian weapons bound for Hezbollah.

Islamist forces from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) - designated a terrorist group by the United States - and allied rebel fighters launched a surprise offensive on Wednesday, capturing several towns and villages in northwest Aleppo province, a region controlled by Iran-backed President Bashar al-Assad.

The offensive has abruptly shaken up the conflict after years of relative military stalemate.

As a former Arab affairs advisor to the Israeli government and intelligence officer who specialized in the Arab world, Melamed has field experience and insight into regional trends.

“The Assad regime in Syria is a very significant component in this whole structure that the Mullah regime [Iran] has been building, known as the axis of resistance,” he added.

The Axis of Resistance is an Iran-led coalition in the Middle East, comprising of both Sunni and Shia Muslim groups and governments in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza and Iraq. The network includes Hamas, Hezbollah, Assad’s government, the Houthis of Yemen and armed militia in Syria and Iraq.

What happens to the Axis of Resistance after the ceasefire?

Hezbollah operatives supported Assad during the years-long Syrian civil war that began in 2011 and continues today in sporadic pockets in Northern Syria.

Rebels in Northern Syria launched their unexpected offensive after the blows Iran’s proxies faced from Israel in recent months. Aleppo has been controlled by Bashar Al-Assad, the president of Syria who has been backed pro-Iranian militias and military advisors since 2016.

Turkey controls parts of Northern Syria and exercises a large measure of influence on Syrian rebel forces.

The anti-government rebels may seek to capitalize on the weaknesses of the Iranian axis, with a vacuum left by a weakened Hezbollah.

The rebels said the offensive was launched to deter the Syrian government and Iran-backed proxies. It also killed a senior commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Iranian state media reported that Brigadier General Kioumars Pourhashemi was killed in Aleppo during an overnight attack Thursday by Islamist forces opposed to the Syrian government.

The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News said he was killed by “Takfiri terrorists,” a term widely used in Shiite-majority Iran to refer to jihadists or supporters of radical Sunni Islam.

Amid a backdrop in fighting and shifting alliances, Assad could seek to distance himself from Iran and the axis of resistance.

"I think that would be a very interesting and very significant to follow what will happen with the Assad regime and the way that it will maneuver down the road, giving to this reconfiguration of the landscape of the region," said Melamed.

Melamed said such a move could signify something much greater, one that is set to impact the stability of the axis, geopolitical alliances, and limit just how much Iran influences the region at large.

“One interesting thing is to see that for the last year, and particularly against the background of the Israeli-Hezbollah collision and the Israeli-Iran collision, Assad totally remained on the sidelines. He didn't say anything,” said Melamed.

In addition to staying quiet during Iran’s conflicts with Israel, Assad did not attend the funeral of Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi who died in a helicopter crash in May of this year.

Assad understands that there’s a shift in power, according to Melamed who referred to him as a shrewd, cynical politician.

“Assad is trying to see where exactly he could benefit the best in this re-configuration of this region,” he added.

The Syrian leader was reinstated in the Arab League in May 2023 after his nation was suspended for more than 10 years.

There is little chance of Saudi and Persian Gulf nations providing financial aid to Damascus amid its economic struggles due to Syria’s relationship with Iran in the axis of resistance, said Melamed.

Iran, Russia and Hezbollah were key supporters of Assad during the civil war, and injected billions of dollars to help save his leadership - money that Melamed said Syria cannot afford to pay Iran back.

Israeli strikes in Syria amid ceasefire

The Iran-backed axis developed what they describe as a unity of fronts strategy to engulf Israel, and Syria is a key component of that alliance. But that could soon change if Assad shifts allegiances.

Hezbollah provided a critical boost to Syrian forces against the original rebel uprising and still operates there, with the Israeli military saying the group’s elite unit 4400 transfers Iranian weapons to Lebanon under the oversight of Syria's Military Security.

Melamed said frequent Israeli air strikes on Iran-controlled forces and bases in Syria will not stop even after the recent ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Since 2017, Israel has conducted hundreds of air strikes to contain Iran's presence and shipment of arms to Hezbollah.

The Israeli military announced in a press conference Wednesday that they would continue to prevent weapons delivers to Hezbollah both in Lebanon and Syria. Recent strikes, it said, served as a warning to Damascus that the Jewish state will stop the Iran-backed militia from rearming.

“We struck on Syrian soil all attempts to transfer weapons to Hezbollah. If we detect intentions to transfer weapons to the organization — we will act,” IDF Spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said in Wednesday’s press conference.

The US-brokered ceasefire stipulates that the Lebanese army will control and monitor the country’s border crossings to prevent unauthorized arms entries. It also has the power to confiscate weapons it finds in the area south of the Litani River near the de-facto border between the two nations.

“One of the articles (of the ceasefire) basically says that Israel has the right to continue and to intercept the shipments of armament to Lebanon,” said Melamed on the Eye for Iran podcast.

To watch the full Eye for Iran episode featuring Avi Melamed, the CEO of Inside the Middle East Intelligence Perspectives, on YouTube. Or listen on Spotify, Apple, Amazon, Castbox or any major podcast platform.