Iran projects optimism for nuclear talks amid Western pressure

Iran’s state media maintained their optimistic forecasts about talks Tehran says are forthcoming with Europe on November 29, despite the lack of confirmation from the EU or the countries involved.

News websites in Tehran continued heralding talks, as the EU foreign policy officials remained silent, with repeated requests for confirmation by Iran International on Monday remaining unanswered. On Sunday, Iran’s foreign ministry announced that the two sides will meet in Geneva to continue diplomatic efforts for resolving differences.

According to spokesman Esmail Baghaei, the upcoming talks with Germany, France, Britain (E3) and EU officials are seen as a follow-up to meetings held with them on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

“In this round of talks, which were planned in New York, a range of regional and international issues, including Palestine and Lebanon, as well as nuclear issues, will be discussed.”

Tehran finds itself in a difficult situation as the United States and the E3 sponsored a censure resolution last week at the Board of Governors meeting of the UN watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The resolution condemned Iran’s lack of cooperation with the agency, signaling perhaps more punitive measures in the future.

As pressure on the nuclear dispute ramps up, Tehran also faces the specter of Donald Trump’s return to office and an expected intensification of economic sanctions.

The conservative Farhikhtegan website in Tehran reported on Monday that Iran initiated the request for a meeting with European counterparts, highlighting its eagerness for diplomatic progress ahead of Trump’s return.

At the same time, contradictory signals persisted from Tehran. Hardline politicians continued to demand a move toward production of nuclear weapons in the face of the IAEA censure.

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf announced on Sunday that Iran has begun deploying advanced centrifuges which enrich uranium for the country’s nuclear program. He said, "The Islamic Republic of Iran's reciprocal response to this political misuse of the Board of Governors was immediately put into action, and the deployment of a set of new and advanced centrifuges has begun".

However, it remains unclear what Iran aims to achieve with the European powers, given that the primary actor is the United States, which will usher in a fundamentally different administration in just two months. Even the Biden administration, which tried to reach an accommodation in 2021 and 2022, has become skeptical of Tehran’s true intentions.

Media in Tehran quoted an Iran-based analyst on Monday as saying, “The Islamic Republic of Iran will not hesitate to engage in direct contact or negotiations with the new US administration if it concludes that doing so benefits the country's national interests.”

The optimistic tone from Iranian media and politicians about the prospects of diplomatic progress may also be an effort to counter the widespread pessimism gripping the country. Since September, the Iranian rial has significantly depreciated, driven by Israeli attacks on Tehran’s proxies, a direct airstrike on Iran, and mounting Western pressure over the nuclear issue. This currency devaluation has exacerbated inflation, which already stands at around 40%, further straining the economy.

However, not all commentators and analysts in Iran echo the official optimism. Some point out that Europe, much like the US has given up on a viable agreement with Iran, partly because of Tehran’s military support for Russia.

Hassan Beheshtipour, a well-known analyst told Rouydad 24 website in Tehran that he believes the European are more inclined to pursue punitive measures, such as resurrecting UN sanctions that were suspended by the 2015 JCPOA nuclear agreement.

"The Europeans prefer to move toward activating the snapback mechanism unless Iran, along with the UK, France, and Germany, changes its approach. If Iran adjusts its stance, a potential agreement might be reached to avoid triggering the snapback mechanism. However, for now, they are strongly pursuing its activation," he argued.