Israel and Hezbollah 'close' to clinching ceasefire, Israeli diplomat says

Israel’s ambassador to the United States said that ceasefire talks with Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon are progressing, in spite of the 250 projectiles fired into Israeli territory and continuation of Israeli strikes in Lebanon at full pace on Monday.

"We are close to an agreement, it could happen within days, some corners remain to be closed,” Mike Herzog, Israel's ambassador to the US, told Army Radio on Monday.

The United States believes the two sides have reached a ceasefire agreement, Axios reported on Monday citing a senior U.S. official.

On Sunday night, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held closed talks on the matter which would have to be approved by the security cabinet.

The US Undersecretary of Defense for Middle East Affairs, Dan Shapiro, will arrive in Israel on Monday and meet with Defense Minister Israel Katz and other Israeli officials.

A key agenda item will be addressing Israeli concerns its so-called freedom of action and ensuring immediate cooperation on the matter, with Israel insisting on keeping the option for self-defense firmly open.

A senior Israeli negotiator, working closely on the Gaza file, told Iran International: “Each side wants a ceasefire in Lebanon.”

He said that there is no desire to wait until the Trump administration begins in January, as the country is being battered by war, impacting economically and psychologically, while 101 Israeli hostages remain held by Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza and the war rolls on there.

“Bibi fears that the Biden administration may impose sanctions, enforce an arms embargo or even seek retribution against him,” the source said.

“At the same time, he rightly believes that this is a moment when Hezbollah and Iran are at their weakest, Israel not gaining any more by inflicting havoc on Lebanon.”

In September, coordinated attacks over two days saw thousands of Hezbollah operatives taken out of action when pagers and walkie-talkies exploded simultaneously.

Soon after, swathes of the group’s leadership, including long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah, were killed in a wave of targeted strikes, which continue today.

Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a close political ally of Hezbollah, last week said there was progress in the talks, but there were still “technical details” to resolve.

The US-drafted proposal entails an initial 60-day suspension of hostilities during which Hezbollah fighters would move north of the Litani River, about 30 kilometers (19 miles) away from the Israeli border.

However, it would require the Lebanese army to enforce the deal, deploying thousands of troops, which has historically been impossible to impose as Hezbollah continues to defy the army which is essentially weaker than Iran’s largest ally in the region.

Former General Khaled Hmadeh told Iran International that on the ground, the prospects of a ceasefire look more bleak.

"The efforts initiated by Amos Hochstein's recent visits to Beirut and Tel Aviv have yielded little productive outcome, highlighted by the immediate resumption of Israeli reconnaissance flights over Beirut following his departure. The situation further deteriorated with a surge in military operations characterized by escalating violence and destruction after his visit to Tel Aviv," he told Iran International.

He said problems between the US and Iran remain key barriers. "Clear terms that could address the critical issues between Israel and Lebanon remain elusive. Instead, the situation seems to be heading toward further escalation. A significant factor in this deepening rift is Iran's resistance to the changes the United States is implementing in the region, particularly concerning Iranian influence and the status of Iranian-backed armed militias," he added.

Tehran, in turn, he said appears to be "exploiting and capitalizing on its dominance over Hezbollah, and through it, Lebanese political decision-making in the face of US pressure over its regional role and nuclear ambitions".

He said that while Lebanon bears the brunt of the conflict, suffering damage to its political stability, security, and national economy, the effectiveness of the Lebanese government is also under scrutiny, "particularly concerning Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri's navigation of Tehran's influence".

International pressure on Tehran will be key in what not only comes next, but the key to any kind of lasting peace.

"The responsibility to pressure Tehran into dismantling Hezbollah's military capabilities should be recognized as an international and American obligation that transcends purely Lebanese concerns," he added. "Without consistent external support aimed at solidifying the Lebanese Army's role and addressing Hezbollah's military presence, the prospects for stability in the region will remain precarious at best."

A soldier in the elite Golani unit not authorized to speak to media, told Iran International: "I hope we finish them. Lebanon agrees, they also hate Hezbollah."

In spite of being seriously wounded in Lebanon, he longs to go back to the front lines, and "finish the job". "We can't allow them to get strong enough to raise their heads again," he said.

Lior Akerman, a senior fellow and Head of National Resilience Desk in the Institute for Policy and Strategy at Reichman University, said that in the current reality, an agreement with Hezbollah has a wider importance.

It could allow the "return of sanity to the State of Israel", including the cessation of fighting in Gaza, the return of the 63,000 displaced Israeli residents to their homes in the north, the return of the kidnapped in Gaza, and the rebuilding of the state.

The former deputy head of division and a former chief of staff in the Shin Bet told Iran International: "In the distant future, there is no doubt that an all-out war will be required to destroy Hezbollah, but in the meantime, we can be content with keeping them away from the border and giving the Israeli army the opportunity to thwart any security activity against us in the territories of southern Lebanon."

Israel's right-wing national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, urged Netanyahu to reject a ceasefire. On X, he said: "An agreement with Lebanon is a big mistake. A historic missed opportunity to eradicate Hezbollah. I understand all the constraints and reasons, and it is still a grave mistake."

He urged the military to continue to weaken the group, considered terrorists by countries including the US and UK.

"You have to listen to the commanders fighting in the field, listen to the heads of the authorities. Precisely now, when Hezbollah is beaten and longs for a cease-fire, it is forbidden to stop. As I warned before in Gaza, I warn now as well: Mr. Prime Minister - it is not too late to stop this agreement! We must continue until the absolute victory!"

Iran has backed a ceasefire, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi saying last month in Beirut: "We support efforts for a ceasefire on the condition that it would be acceptable to the Lebanese people, acceptable to the resistance, and thirdly, it would be synchronized with a ceasefire in Gaza."