Who are Khamenei's likely successors?

On November 15, a member of Iran’s Assembly of Experts announced that the Assembly has selected three individuals as potential successors to Ali Khamenei in order of priority. However, the names of these candidates remain confidential.

This announcement by Abolhassan Mahdavi, the temporary Friday prayer leader in Isfahan, comes amid heightened tensions between Israel and the Islamic Republic and concerns over the possibility of Khamenei being assassinated by Israel. It is not the first time that a senior cleric makes a similar statement, but the timing on this occasion provokes more questions.

Concerns over Khamenei's assassination

Even before the recent escalation between Israel and the Islamic Republic, discussions about Khamenei’s succession were already ongoing. These concerns have now intensified. In recent meetings with the Assembly of Experts, the body responsible for selecting the next Supreme Leader, Khamenei urged members to be ready to swiftly choose a successor if needed. Analysts interpret these remarks as stemming from his fear of an Israeli assassination rather than concerns about natural causes.

During Friday prayers, Mahdavi emphasized that Khamenei is physically healthy, showing no signs of illness. This reinforced the view that what the establishment is most concerned about is external threats.

A "Martyrdom" atmosphere in recent Assembly meeting

Assembly member Heydari Kashani described Khamenei’s recent meeting with the Assembly of Experts as taking place in an atmosphere of “martyrdom.” According to Kashani, participants wept as Khamenei emphasized the need for the Assembly to quickly select a new leader in his absence. This underscores concerns about potential unrest and the heightened risk of the regime’s collapse without Khamenei.

Mojtaba Khamenei: The leading candidate

Mahdavi disclosed that three candidates have been selected as potential successors, though their identities remain confidential. Among them, Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of Ali Khamenei and his most politically influential offspring, is widely regarded as the leading contender.

Mojtaba has reportedly been groomed for leadership with his father’s approval. For over 27 years, he has played a behind-the-scenes role in shaping major policy decisions. Close associates, such as Abbas Palizdar and former IRIB head Mohammad Sarafraz, have also confirmed Mojtaba’s influence. His recent suspension of his advanced jurisprudence classes and the release of his first official video further signal preparations for a power transition.

Alireza Arafi: A likely second choice

Another potential candidate is Alireza Arafi, a trusted confidant of Khamenei. Arafi is the second deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts, a member of the Guardian Council, Friday prayer leader of Qom, and an influential figure in the seminary. His position within the power structure enhances his chances of being chosen.

Hashem Hosseini Bushehri: A third possibility

The third likely candidate is Hashem Hosseini Bushehri. He is the first deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts, the head of the Qom Seminary Society, and Friday prayer leader in Qom. His close ties to Khamenei and key leadership roles increase his prospects. In contrast, figures like Mehdi Mirbagheri, despite significant media coverage, are considered less likely candidates.

Unlikely candidates

Names such as Ali Khomeini and Hassan Khomeini, grandsons of Ruhollah Khomeini (the founder of the Islamic Republic), have also been mentioned. However, their prospects are slim due to their exclusion from the regime's upper echelons. Hassan Khomeini was effectively sidelined after being barred from running for the Assembly of Experts nine years ago.

Hassan Rouhani faced a similar disqualification, while Sadeq Larijani, the current chairman of the Expediency Discernment Council, failed to win a seat in the Assembly of Experts during the last election. Additionally, Larijani’s resignation from the Guardian Council reportedly displeased Khamenei, further diminishing his chances.

Former president Ebrahim Raisi, who served as president and first deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts, died under suspicious circumstances in a helicopter crash a day before the election of the Assembly’s new chairman in May. Meanwhile, Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, who criticized the promotion of Mojtaba Khamenei’s leadership at the Assembly meeting, was immediately removed from the Assembly’s presidium.

Broader challenges for the establishment

While Mojtaba Khamenei is considered the most likely successor, the regime faces far greater challenges than leadership transition. Escalating tensions with Israel, the re-election of Donald Trump, and mounting public discontent over chronic shortages of electricity, natural gas, and fuel have placed the regime's survival in jeopardy. Growing frustration with government inefficiency, mandatory hijab laws, and internet restrictions has only deepened public anger and unrest.