Do Trump's cabinet picks mean the 'writing is on the wall' for Iran?

The return of Donald Trump to the White House could mean many things for the future of Iran, and no matter what unfolds when he takes office, his cabinet picks are offering some clues.

As more names trickle in, it has become apparent that this next administration will not follow the Biden-Harris policy of lighter sanctions and relying mainly on diplomatic overtures with Iran. More likely pressure will increase on Tehran to extract concessions and reach a more comprehensive deal on both Iran's nuclear program and its regional adventures.

The president-elect has appointed Elise Stefanik as the US Ambassador to the United Nations. As the representative of New York's 21st Congressional District and chair of the House Republican Conference, her role will focus on key UN issues, particularly regarding Israel and Iran. Stefanik has been a strong supporter of Israel and Trump's "peace through strength" policy, and recently endorsed a return to Trump's maximum pressure strategy against Iran.

Mike Waltz, the man tapped to be Trump’s national security adviser in the next White House, is known as a hardliner when it comes to the Islamic Republic. The president-elect confirmed Waltz appointment in a statement Tuesday.

The Republican congressman and former special forces soldier has echoed the president-elect's calls to “finish the job” in defeating Iran-backed Hamas. He believes in maximum pressure against Iran and ensuring that Iran does not become a nuclear power.

He also has a history of opposing President Joe Biden’s policies towards Iran.

Trump also announced Senator Marco Rubio as his choice for Secretary of State, though his appointment is yet to be confirmed. Rubio, known for his hawkish views on Iran, criticized Biden's policies and has called for Israel to be free to attack Iran’s nuclear program. These appointments suggest the new administration will take a tougher stance on Iran than the Biden administration, with Senate approval needed for many of these positions.

Maximum Pressure is Back

Trump's picks for his Cabinet and his national security team seem to align with a return to maximum pressure, said Gregory Brew, an Iran analyst with the Eurasia Group.

“My expectation was that Trump 2.0 would look a lot like Trump 1.0, a return to maximum pressure and an emphasis on economic and diplomatic pressure on the regime, particularly through sanctions and regional isolation,” said Brew.

Diplomatic isolation and economic sanctions would likely be on the top of Trump’s agenda according to Brew.

Trump is remembered for his aggressive policy and actions toward the Islamic Republic, including the killing of General Qasem Soleimani, the tearing up of the JSPOA also known as the Iran nuclear deal and his general maximum pressure campaign against the Ayatollahs.

There are also credible reports from US intelligence that the Iranian government tried to kill Trump, and IRGC-linked telegram channels have allegedly posted death threats against him.

The Justice Department on November 8 disclosed an Iranian murder-for-hire plot to kill Trump. The Afghan national linked to Iran was charged with planning to assassinate the president-elect.

Brew believes Trump could take those attempts on his life personally and that could factor into his decision-making process when it comes to Iran.

But that doesn’t mean talking and dialogue are out of the equation.

Alex Vatanka, the founding Director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, said Trump is willing to create dialogue with Iran.

In 2019, Trump tasked then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to mediate talks in a trip to Iran that turned into a failed mediation effort. He was the first Japanese leader to visit Iran in four decades, but it ended in a rebuff when Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei told Abe, "No negotiations with Trump."

Vatanka said now it’s time for Iran to decide on talks and if they revert to their behavior like they did with Abe, then it won’t be to Iran’s advantage.

The tough team that Trump appears to be forming has Vatanka saying that the “writing is on the wall” for Iran.

“The writing is on the wall. Iran needs to find a way to compromise with the United States on all sorts of issues and probably needs to compromise with Israel.”

Will there be war?

If talks fail, the looming question is whether there will be war with Iran. The answer might not lie in the key figures Trump has chosen to lead his administration, but rather in the ones he has chosen not to appoint.

Vatanka told Iran International that Trump’s refusal to appoint former Ambassador Nikki Haley, or former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, may be due to his desire not to go to war.

Trump has repeatedly said and most notably after his election victory that he doesn’t want to start a war, but rather wants to end wars.

“I’m not going to start a war, I’m going to end wars,” said Trump during his victory speech in Florida on November 6.

Both Haley and Pompeo are known as neo-conservatives that promote US global military dominance.

“I don't know what the outcome of that policy debate inside the Trump team, but if the reports are true, then clearly the ones who call themselves against Forever wars, at least as of right now," said Vatanka.

But external factors, particularly the back-and-forth missile strikes between Iran and Israel, and Iran’s nuclear ambitions, could change all of that.

“Whether he wants to go to war against Iran, whether he's willing to use military action, I think that will depend on context and circumstances, particularly the circumstances surrounding Iran's nuclear program and the potential for additional military confrontations between Iran and Israel like we've seen this year with the missile strikes,” said Brew.

Some Iranian-Americans like Trump supporter and founder of “Iranians for Trump” Sarah Raviani are overjoyed with the reported cabinet choices.

As an activist pushing to influence US policy towards Iran like the work Raviani did with NUFDI and other advocates to push through the MAHSA Act, she sees the team forming around Trump as one that is sympathetic towards the Iranian people, and tough on the Islamic Republic establishment.

“These are all individuals who have a very unique understanding of the threat that is the regime in Iran,” she told Iran International.

While there are a lot of unknowns, Trump – fresh off an election win earlier this month – is emboldening a new administration that is pro-Israel and hawkish on Iran.