Trump's pick of a pro-Israel team signals trouble for Tehran

President-elect Donald Trump’s lineup of foreign policy appointments reveals a strong pro-Israel, anti-Tehran stance for his second term, which in general seems to be on a more predictable and less turbulent footing.

On Monday, Trump announced Representative Elise Stefanik of New York is to become United Nations ambassador, Representative Mike Waltz of Florida will take over as national security advisor, and it is expected that Senator Marco Rubio of Florida will become secretary of State.

Speaking to Iran International, Richard Pater, Israel director of the think tank, The Britain Israel Communications and Research Centre (BICOM), said it was good news for Israel.

“The initial appointments and the early anticipation around the second Trump administration bode well and signal good news for US allies in the region.

“From a security perspective they will build on regional alliances to defend against malign Iranian aggression. Furthermore, there is renewed hope that these alliances can be solidified and that the Abraham Accords can be expanded.”

Stefanik has made no secret of her stance on Iran. In May, addressing the Israeli parliament, she said: “The US is ready for a return to President Trump’s maximum pressure campaign against Iran.”

On Saturday, she reiterated her Iran stance, slamming the Biden administration’s approach which over the last three years has seen Iran earn record amounts of oil revenue in the face of sanctions, and successfully earned billions in what human rights groups call "hostage taking."

Last year, five US citizens were released from prison in Iran for $6bn in released frozen funds, just before Hamas, Iran's ally, attacked Israel on October 7, 2023.

“For too long, our enemies have been emboldened by the weakness of the Biden-Harris Administration,” Stefanik wrote on Saturday on X.

Signaling a strong approach to the Palestinian topic, she also wrote on Sunday that her target would encompass cracking down on the Palestinian leadership alongside the Gaza war.

“The Biden-Harris Administration knows that the Palestinian Authority is continuing their “pay-to-slay” policies and lining the pockets of terrorists who kill Israelis,” she wrote, the PA offering money to those who kill Israelis, and pay their families if they are killed in the line of ‘jihad’ or are imprisoned.

“Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are choosing to ignore the law and waiving mandatory terrorism sanctions on the Palestinian government. Thankfully the Biden-Harris Administration’s rewarding of terrorists at the expense of our great ally Israel is coming to an end,” she wrote on Sunday.

Khaled Abu Toameh, an analyst at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, told Iran International that while the debate about the meddling of Iran in Palestinian affairs troubles the Palestinian leadership, especially in the West Bank, it remains a taboo topic on the streets. Iran supports not only Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad which are both in Gaza and the West Bank, but also multiple battalions in the West Bank.

“Palestinians don’t openly talk about Iran, because you’ll be seen as a traitor and against the resistance,” he told Iran International.

“Palestinian officials are very worried about what Iran does in terms of supporting terror in the West Bank and Gaza, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the battalions in the West Bank, but when you ask them to speak publicly about it they don’t want to.”

In addition to the war in Gaza, sparked by the October 7 Hamas attacks, the West Bank is fraught with conflict between Iran-backed groups and the Israeli military.

“I’m sure the Palestinian leadership are looking at Trump to resolve this, knowing that these groups are only serving Iran’s agenda, but on the street, you don’t hear this debate,” he added.

Mike Waltz has been a vocal critic of the Islamic Republic, condemning the Biden administration for creating an environment where Iran faces little consequence for its aggressive actions abroad, including attempts by its agents to target Donald Trump and former aides. Last year, the US labeled Iran the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism.

Waltz told Fox News last Thursday that Trump’s return means “maximum pressure” for the Islamic Republic, and that he poses an “existential threat” to the ruling of supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.

“Why has Iran been trying to kill President Trump? Because they think they can get away with it,” he wrote on X last Thursday. “The Biden administration’s weakness over the last 4 years has emboldened our adversaries THAT MUCH. We need strong assurances from Biden RIGHT NOW to deter these Iranian threats AND he needs to provide military security to protect President Trump. This cannot wait.”

A ceasefire in Lebanon forcing Hezbollah to make concessions, would be in Iran’s interest, says Moty Cristal, a former Israeli negotiator. "Time is working against Iran because of the risk of attack so if I was Iran I would be looking to finalise a deal before Trump takes office. Iran is much weaker and more vulnerable right now, it has less air defences since the Israel attack and politically it’s much less credible," he told Iran International.

If before Trump comes, there is a deal with Hezbollah, the hawkish approach will not be the same. "It’s much harder to restart an aggressive approach if that’s in place. If there is no ceasefire in Lebanon until January, that opens more military options for Israel and the US against Iran and Hezbollah," he added.

If a ceasefire is put in place, Trump can execute the hawkish mindset and policies through additional sanctions or through something that will similarly weaken Iran, bringing Saudi Arabia into the 2020 Trump-brokered Abraham Accords with Israel which saw relations normalized with countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.

"From Israel’s perspective, it might be better negotiation wise to wait," Cristal added. "The US negotiators are talking now about a stronger UN Resolution 1701, but if we get to February, Israel and the region might even get Resolution 1559 which is a complete disarmament of Hezbollah, not only pushing them north. That’s much better for Israel and the region."

Resolution 1701 from 2006 required Hezbollah and armed militias in southern Lebanon to retreat behind specified lines, in addition to disarming. Neither of which has since happened.