IAEA chief warns of shrinking diplomatic space for Iran nuclear deal

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) warned on Tuesday ahead of a visit to Tehran that the diplomatic space to achieve another international deal over Iran's disputed nuclear program was shrinking.

“The Iranian administration must understand that the international situation is becoming increasingly tense,” Rafael Grossi said in an interview with AFP, “and that it is imperative to find ways to reach diplomatic solutions.”

Speaking on the sidelines of the COP29 climate summit in Baku, Grossi was due to travel to Tehran as tensions between Israel and the Islamic Republic mount and the hawkish new administration of President-elect Donald Trump begins to take shape.

The IAEA, tasked with monitoring Iran's nuclear activities, has access to inspect Iranian facility, but Grossi said, "we need to see more." Citing the scale and ambition of Iran’s nuclear program, he called for increased transparency, adding "we need to find ways of giving the agency more visibility."

Grossi’s trip follows the recent US presidential election, which saw former president Donald Trump, known for withdrawing from the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal, return to office.

“I already worked with the first Trump administration, and we worked well together,” he said.

The original 2015 nuclear accord, brokered between Iran and six major powers—including the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France, and Germany—aimed to limit Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for easing economic sanctions.

However, Trump’s withdrawal from the agreement in 2018 led to its unraveling, despite efforts to revive it in recent years. "It’s an empty shell," Grossi said of the current state of the deal.

In the absence of a binding agreement, Iran’s nuclear program has expanded. The IAEA reports that Tehran’s enriched uranium stockpile has grown, with enrichment levels reaching 60 percent—approaching the 90 percent threshold required for weaponization. Tehran, however, denies any intention of developing nuclear arms.

Since taking office in August, Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has indicated a willingness to revisit diplomatic discussions surrounding the nuclear deal.

Grossi expressed cautious optimism about this overture. In a separate conversation with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour, he talked about Iran's continued verbal commitment to diplomacy, even as he referred to the lack of significant changes in Tehran’s actions.

“They have a big, big nuclear program,” Grossi told Amanpour. “They have a lot of nuclear materials that could be used eventually to make a nuclear weapon… And this is one of the reasons I’m heading to Tehran.”

He added that the IAEA's focus remains on diplomatic, strong solutions to prevent the situation from deteriorating further, particularly in light of potential responses from regional actors like Israel.

Grossi’s last visit to Iran, which took place in May, included a tour of the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in Isfahan province. At the time, he urged Iranian officials to implement concrete measures to address international concerns about their nuclear program.

As Grossi heads back to Tehran, he seeks substantive progress with Iran’s leadership. “I’m hoping I’ll be able to plunge straight into the most important matters,” Grossi said, adding that while Iran’s administration has signaled an interest in re-engaging, meaningful action will be essential.

With diplomatic paths narrowing, Grossi’s visit may mark a critical juncture in efforts to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions and reduce the risk of broader conflict in the region.