Iran International's audience weighs impact of Trump win on Iran’s future

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump attends a press conference at Trump National Golf Club, in Rancho Palos Verdes, US, September 13, 2024.
Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump attends a press conference at Trump National Golf Club, in Rancho Palos Verdes, US, September 13, 2024.

Some Iran International viewers inside the country expressed cautious optimism about Donald Trump’s re-election, hoping his return might increase US pressure on the Islamic Republic, while others remained skeptical.

All stressed that the foundation for any governmental change in Iran rests in the hands of the Iranian people, not external powers.

Their reactions were collected through anonymous direct messages to Iran International via social media platforms.

Many Iranians opposed to the Islamic Republic have expressed hope on social media that Trump will reinstate his tough stance on the Islamic government, intensifying economic and other pressures that could weaken the ruling establishment—and possibly even lead to its overthrow.

Viewers refrained from revealing their identities, citing concerns over the Islamic Republic’s recent announcement criminalizing the sharing of images, text, or audio with foreign media. Under those directives, such actions could result in prison sentences ranging from one to ten years and could be classified as "moharebeh," or “waging war against God,” a charge that could carry the death penalty​.

One person said Trump’s victory is "very helpful to the people of Iran, but ultimately, we are the ones who must overthrow the Islamic Republic; no government or country in the world prioritizes our interests over its own."

Another expressed that with Democrats leaving office, the pressure on the Iranian government might increase, potentially creating "an opportunity for the Iranian people to make a move." However, they warned the system may seek compromises to safeguard power, adding: "We could see another deal with Trump, which would not benefit the Iranian people."

While Trump's previous term saw him exit the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and pursue a maximum pressure approach, a softer approach by the Biden administration led to increased oil revenues for the government.

Some Iran International viewers questioned the faith placed in Trump’s policies, noting that American leaders act in the interests of their own citizens. "Trump, Biden, etc., all think about their own people," one viewer remarked, challenging the assumption that Trump’s policies would favor Iran’s population.

Trump’s campaign also stressed his intent to prevent Iran from advancing its nuclear program, a stance that resonated with some viewers who voiced confidence in a US leader with a firm anti-Iranian government stance.

"We are certainly happy with Trump’s election; after all, he has an anti-cleric, anti-terrorism stance," one Iranian said, referencing Trump’s past order targeting Qasem Soleimani, a high-ranking Iranian commander.

The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammad Eslami, affirmed that Iran’s nuclear program would continue independently of US politics. “Our program is not affected by any comings and goings in the US,” he said.

As the dollar exchange rate climbed to over 710,000 rials in Iranian markets following Trump’s win, viewers’ opinions remained divided, with some seeing his return as a potential shift toward political upheaval in Iran, while others stressed the need for internally driven change.

The reaction among Iran International’s audience illustrates the complex spectrum of perspectives within the country, where political developments abroad intersect with deep-rooted aspirations for change — a change many believe only Iranians can ultimately achieve.