Iran sends mixed signals on potential retaliation against Israel

Iranian officials are sending conflicting messages about the Islamic Republic's plans to respond to Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iran, suggesting both a potential for restraint and an intention to escalate.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday that Iran has told Arab countries in the region it is planning a strong and complex response to Israel involving even more powerful warheads and other weapons.

Iran has told Arab diplomats that its conventional army would be involved because it had lost four soldiers and a civilian in Israel’s October 26 attack, the report added, citing Iranian and Arab officials briefed on the plans.

One Iranian official speaking to the Wall Street Journal said Iran could use Iraqi territory for part of the operation and would likely target Israeli military facilities “but much more aggressively than last time."

The WSJ report came hours after President Masoud Pezeshkian said "Iran will in no way leave any violation of its territory and security unanswered," in response to recent Israeli attacks that killed four Iranian army personnel and a civilian.

"They are well aware that any mistake against the Islamic Republic of Iran will be met with a crushing response," Pezeshkian said during a cabinet session.

However, the relatively moderate president left the door open for de-escalation if Israel chooses to cease hostilities. "If they reconsider their actions, accept a ceasefire, and stop the killing of innocent and oppressed people in the region, it may influence the nature and intensity of our response."

Pezeshkian's statement appeared to signal a willingness for a measured approach, potentially allowing for a de-escalation if Israel were to pull back.

The United States has directly warned Tehran against launching another attack against Israel, saying it will not be able to restrain its ally this time, Axios reported Saturday citing an American official, amid reports of Iran's preparations for another strike on Israel.

In a direct message sent to Iran through the Swiss, the Biden administration warned the Islamic Republic that Israel's response to a possible Iranian attack will not be as limited as the one launched last Saturday.

On October 26, in the wake of a four-hour mission involving around 100 pilots, the Israeli military said it had caused significant damage to Iran’s air defense systems, allowing them scope “to do much more”.

The attack was Israel's response to Iran's October 1 missile barrage, following a series of high-level Israeli killings including the leader of Iran’s largest militia, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the humiliating killing of the Hamas political leader in an IRGC compound in Tehran.