Germany to close Tehran's consulates over execution of dual national

“What I hear from the Iranians is that they are indeed very much keyed into the fact that a continuing cycle of escalation is not in their interest,” Faisal bin Farhan al Saud said at a major investment conference in the Saudi capital.

“I do hope that they are translating that into actually practical steps,” he added, adding that Saudi diplomacy aims at heading off future conflicts.

Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi toured Arab capitals this month to drum up support ahead of an Israeli military response to a missile barrage Tehran launched on the Jewish state on Oct. 1.

That attack came over the weekend and killed four Iranian soldiers and a civilian but appeared to bypass the airspace of Arab countries astride the Persian Gulf.

China brokered a rapprochement between the regional heavyweights in March 2023 which restored their diplomatic ties and cooled somewhat the conflicts pitting Riyadh and its armed allies against Iran-backed armed groups in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq.

Saudi Arabia has moderated its tough stance toward Iran following a 2019 missile strike on its key refinery at Abqaiq, which briefly shut down more than 5% of global oil supply. Iran denied involvement.

Discussing broader regional tensions, Prince Faisal urged all involved parties to act cautiously, saying: “The only way for us to find a pathway…is for everybody to make a conscious decision that further escalation is risky for all parties.”

“Without finding a pathway to a ceasefire in Gaza, I think we continue to risk intended and unintended cycles of escalation."

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said this year that the kingdom would not normalize its relations with Israel without the establishment of a Palestinian state.

The Biden Administration had been working for months to broker a peace agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel. A deal appeared close last year but lapsed after October 7, 2023, when Iran-backed Palestinian militants led by Hamas attacked Israel, sparking more than a year of war.

Turning to Saudi Arabia’s relationship with the United States, Bin Farhan said the strategic partnership remains strong and beneficial, particularly in security and economic matters.

Despite initial turbulence between the United States and Saudi Arabia at the beginning of President Joe Biden's term, Prince Faisal said ties were now better than ever.

“Today, the working relationship with the US is among the best we’ve ever had, including in the national security space,” he said.

In an editorial penned by the editor-in-chief of the Javan newspaper, Gholamreza Sadeghian, the IRGC-aligned outlet categorized four types of deterrence and said that the Islamic Republic has achieved the first three: political, economic, and military.

The author referred to the last type as nuclear deterrence, writing: "We know that the enemy is concerned with Iran's deterrence in this regard.”

“While we have emphasized that we are not pursuing nuclear weapons, the capability to acquire them and establish deterrence is another matter—one that the world recognizes in Iran, with estimates suggesting we could achieve this within a week if we chose to do so."

The UN nuclear watchdog has warned several times that Iran may be weeks away from having enough weapons-grade nuclear material.

Earlier this year at the Aspen Security Forum, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that Tehran can produce the necessary fissile material for an atomic bomb in as little as a week or two.

“Instead of being at least a year away from having the breakout capacity of producing fissile material for a nuclear weapon, it is now probably one or two weeks away from doing that,” he said, clarifying that Iran has not yet produced a weapon, which would take far more time.

The editorial from the Javan newspaper, a mouthpiece for the IRGC, indicates a growing sentiment within certain circles of the Iranian establishment, advocating for the acquisition of nuclear weapons as a means of deterrence.

It has heightened against the backdrop of tensions with its nemesis Israel, widely believed to possess at least 90 nuclear warheads, according to organizations such as the Arms Control Association.

Earlier in October, a group of Iranian lawmakers called on Iran's Supreme National Security Council to review the country's defense doctrine and consider building nuclear weapons. They argued that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei can reconsider his religious ban on nuclear weapons on the grounds that the circumstances have changed.

Iranian officials have repeatedly asserted that the country's nuclear program is peaceful, referring to a religious ruling by Khamenei prohibiting weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear bombs.

Tehran’s stockpile of uranium, currently enriched to 60%, could potentially be refined to weapons-grade 90% in a very short time. The shift in doctrine would likely be a signal of Iran's willingness to develop nuclear weapons if Israeli military actions threaten its core interests.

In May, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader said that Iran would reconsider its nuclear doctrine if Israel threatens its existence. There are also claims by Iranian officials that Iran might already possess a nuclear weapon.

In August, Iran International reported that Tehran is intensifying efforts on its secretive nuclear weapons program, bringing the country closer than ever to developing a nuclear bomb.

In early October, pro-establishment voices on Persian-language social media claimed that a recent earthquake in Iran’s Semnan province was actually a covert nuclear test as ultra-hardliners rejoiced over the claims of Iran's alleged nuclear test.

Alex Vatanka, founding director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, told Iran International's Eye for Iran this month that Tehran is nervous about potential Israeli strikes on its nuclear facilities and is using its controversial atomic program as a leverage.

According to Jack Roush, a research associate at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations -- a little-known but influential body handpicked by Khamenei-- may provide the spur the Supreme Leader needs to ditch his avowed refusal of nuclear weapons and reach for the ultimate deterrent.

"One cannot expect Russia to mediate between us and Europe, as Russia itself is in a state of war and deadlock with European countries and the international structure," Kazem Jalali told Sputnik.

In the interview, Jalali said that Iran remains untroubled by its neighboring countries but is increasingly wary of foreign interference within the region, which he says complicates regional relations.

“The presence of foreigners in our region can complicate relations, and Western countries generally try to intervene in the internal affairs of regional countries to shift everything in their favor,” Jalali added.

He said that Iran’s nuclear activities continue under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) oversight and “if major powers do not engage in excessive demands, the nuclear issue of the Islamic Republic of Iran is resolvable.”

The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) once restricted Iran's nuclear ambitions, but the US withdrew from the accord in 2018 under then-President Donald Trump, who re-imposed sanctions on Iran’s oil and banking sectors.

These restrictions have persisted, with the US and regional allies pressing Iran for compliance guarantees before considering any sanction relief. Iran, meanwhile, has expanded uranium enrichment beyond JCPOA limits, which has fueled concerns among Western powers about potential weaponization—a claim Tehran denies.

Mohammad Eslami, head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization said on Wednesday that Russia remains dedicated to assisting Iran in developing phases two and three of the Bushehr nuclear power plant.

According to Eslami, Russian President Vladimir Putin assured Iran of Russia’s commitment to completing these projects, which are part of Iran’s broader nuclear energy strategy aimed at alleviating domestic energy shortfalls.

Iran's dependence on nuclear energy arises from decades of limited investment in alternative energy sources, especially renewables, resulting in a lack of diversification that makes the country susceptible to energy shortages, particularly given its global isolation.

Currently, Russia is Iran's sole partner in its nuclear industry. The Bushehr power plant, launched by Russia in 2011, operates a single reactor producing 1,000 megawatts, which accounts for less than two percent of Iran's total electricity output. However, construction on the second and third phases of the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant has reportedly gained momentum.

The Bushehr reactor remains unaffected by the ongoing nuclear dispute between the West and Iran, as Russia controls the nuclear fuel cycle for this facility.

Israel has historically been one of the toughest places to recruit spies and foreign operatives, but recent weeks have seen a surge in arrests of Jewish immigrants from Russia and Azerbaijan.

The latest citizens to be arrested were a married couple, Rafael and Lela Goliev, who live in the mixed Arab and Jewish city of Lod. The 32-year-olds were arrested after carrying out tasks on behalf of an Iranian infrastructure that recruits Israeli immigrants from the Caucasus countries, Israeli authorities say.

The investigation revealed that Rafael Goliev was recruited into the plot by fellow Azeri Elshan Agayev, 56, acting on behalf of Iranian officials.

“As part of the operation, Golayev carried out surveillance missions on security sites in Israel, including the Mossad's headquarters, and collected intelligence on an academic working at the Institute for Security Studies who the Iranians marked as an assassination target,” a statement from Israel Police said.

Goliev was also asked to locate a person who would serve as the assassin for the Iranian operation. Some of the tasks were carried out by Goliev with the help of his wife Lela who will be served with an indictment today.

The two, both of Azeri origin, had been in contact with the handler since 2021, but in the last month, it is the sixth cell busted for working for Iran. In the last year, the incidences have spiked, reaching a head in October with all the cases coming from either Russia or Azerbaijan.

Israel’s former head of Interpol, Asher Ben Artzi, told Iran International on Thursday as the news broke that the situation reflects a disconnected segment of Israel’s immigrant population. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, several Jews used the right of return to move to Israel and thousands more Russians have fled to the Jewish state in the wake of the war in Ukraine.

“These people come from a very closed society, it’s not like native born Israelis who could never conceive of doing such a thing,” he said. “In all my years in the security services here, I never thought I would see this day. It’s a tragic thing that people who come here seeking refuge, can do this all for the pursuit of greed.”

Immigrants from the former Soviet Union tend to live in more closed communities and integrate less than other immigrants, as well as often being among the less economically well-off segments of the population.

Iranian-born Israeli Beni Sabti, also a researcher at the INSS, told Iran International that Iranians are catching “people or communities in Israel who are not paid enough and are dissatisfied in life”, a vulnerable sector of society which now numbers around one million of Israel’s 10 million population.

Ronen Solomon, an Israeli defense and intelligence analyst, told Iran International that using Azeri for communications may have revealed a gap in Israel’s monitoring capabilities, which are more robust for Persian and Hebrew languages.

Ben Arzti, a veteran of Israel’s security and intelligence sector, noted that Iran enjoys greater operational freedom in Azerbaijan, enabling it to potentially recruit and groom agents there for deployment to Israel.

Solomon further suggested that the recruited Azeris may come from Iran’s Azeri speaking population, making them especially vulnerable to recruitment efforts.

Like previous plots, Solomon said the fact they communicate on Telegram also exposes the weakness of the social media platform which protects the identity of users even when engaged in criminal activity.

Other targets of surveillance in the operation included the Moldovan consulate in Tel Aviv, the national electric company, the port of Haifa, public shelters in Tel Aviv, and graves of victims of the October 7 attacks.

According to the indictment, Goliev received an amount of approximately $600 for each day of surveillance and photography in the mission. His handlers ordered him to purchase an operational phone, high quality cameras, a laptop as well as to use the coding software they installed on the laptop, in order to transfer the information they collected safely. In total, the couple received around $26,000, the police said.

Tamir Hyman, the former head of Israeli defense intelligence and head of the INSS, told Israel’s Ynet: "It is not surprising that the members of the Institute for National Security Studies are a target for Iran and its proxies. Although the institute is an independent research institute, and is not part of the defense establishment, it is the leading defense research institute in Israel and as such, Iran seeks to harm its people.”

Last week, an indictment was filed against seven residents of northern Israel who operated as part of an organized squad recruited by an Iranian agent, and during the war engaged in information gathering and photography of military facilities and bases - among others, those that were the target of the Iranian missile attack on October 1.

Vatan-e Emrooz, known for its hardline positions against the United States and Israel, emphasized that hostilities with Israel neither began on October 7, 2023, nor ended on October 26, 2024, when Israel launched air strikes against Iran. The paper asserted that “Iran will pull the trigger,” meaning a possible retaliation against Israel.

Ultraconservative Saeed Jalili, an adviser to Khamenei on Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated that “the enemy should be slapped in the face,” according to the government-owned Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA).

Jalili, who ran against President Masoud Pezeshkian in the June presidential election, added that Iran cannot permit Israel to act with impunity. Quoting verses from the Quran to support his stance, Jalili further claimed that the ideology of the Islamic Revolution has upended Israel’s calculations.

Meanwhile, the Kayhan, a hardline newspaper linked to Khamenei's office, wrote that a cease-fire with Israel is impossible.

As it often does, the ultra-hardline Kayhan linked regional issues to US interests, writing that US Presidents Biden and Trump both suggested Iran must choose between dismantling "resistance groups"—its regional proxies—or entering a war, assuming that either path would pressure Iran into compromising on its nuclear program and regional ambitions. However, it appears Tehran has opted to confront Israel directly, showing neither fear of war nor inclination toward negotiations, Kayhan said, praising the uncompromising stance.

Also ruling out a cease-fire in the wars in Lebanon and Gaza, the Kayhan wrote that no one can reach a sustainable settlement at the UN or in meetings in Paris, Doha or Cairo. The daily argued that the United States and France that give bunker-buster bombs, missiles and air defense systems to Israel and the regional countries that keep Israel's lifelines open lack the honesty and qualification to broker cease-fire negotiations.

The daily added that the "assassination" of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders eliminated all the chances for a cease-fire.

The commentary added that while Iran seeks peace and stability in the region, it remains doubtful about the prospects for a cease-fire, grounding its diplomatic efforts in a thorough understanding of ongoing developments. Kayhan further noted that President Biden’s congratulations to Israel following Sinwar’s “martyrdom” and the outcomes of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council meeting indicated that calls for a cease-fire were premature and ill-timed.

The daily, funded by Khamenei’s office, emphasized that Iran supports any decision made by "the resistance" and welcomes regional and international efforts backing the “legitimate defense” of the people in Gaza and Lebanon.

Kayhan also quoted Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, stating that "Iran has identified its targets in Israel" and emphasizing that "US forces operating the THAAD air defense system in Israel are legitimate targets for Iranian forces." Araghchi further warned that "The United States will bear responsibility for any possible Israeli attack on Iran."

The newspaper interpreted Araghchi’s remarks to mean that “Israel, along with US bases and forces in the region, will no longer be safe,” suggesting that the Islamic Republic now views US interests and forces in Iraq, Syria, and possibly Bahrain as legitimate targets.