Canadian Iranian journalist and documentary filmmaker
Distance posed no challenge for the Israeli military, which demonstrated its ability to enter Iran and act at will, all while showing restraint, a leading urban warfare expert told Iran International.
John Spencer, who spent 25 years as an infantry solider and officer in the US Army, and served as advisors to senior US army leaders, said Israel’s October 26 retaliation was both restrained yet powerful, and deliberately didn't reveal all of its capabilities.
“It was a very solid and impactful show of force that Israel can reach the Islamic regime in Iran, can penetrate all their air defenses to include the S-300 and can target and show restraint when it wants,” said Spencer.
Satellite images showed likely damage sustained to a base run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that builds ballistic missiles and launches rockets as part of its own space program. Iran launched a military satellite in space from Shahroud Space Center in 2020.
Tehran has largely remained silent other than acknowledging Israeli attacks taking place in Fars, Ilam, Khuzestan and Tehran provinces, stressing that damages were limited.
Images from satellite firm Planet Labs also showed that in the four-hour attack overnight Saturday, a military base in Parchin near Tehran, where nuclear tests were allegedly conducted in the past, was damaged.
Parchin was marked by Iran as military, not nuclear. It was also one of the sites which had been banned from inspections by the UN’s nuclear team.
Spencer said Israel also damaged S300s which are used to protect vital targets, including Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei.
“Israel can hit anything it wants in Iran that it chooses to,” said Spencer.
Israel military chief said on Tuesday that if Iran attacks, they will hit back with capabilities that we did not even use last time.
“If Iran makes the mistake of launching another missile barrage at Israel, we will once again know how to reach Iran, with capabilities that we did not even use this time, and strike very, very hard at both their capabilities and locations that we set aside for now," said Israeli Chief of the General Staff Herzi Halevi.
He said Israel also reserved capabilities that it chose not to demonstrate, but the question is why?
Why Israel held back capabilities
Spencer said while nothing is black and white, Israel’s power lies in its allies, namely the United States, that wanted to avoid a full-scale war.
Guarantees were made by the Americans in exchange, said Spencer, like the US recently issued new sanctions against Iran's oil sector, including the so-called oil ghost fleet, which carries oil products sanctioned by the US.
Israel also took neighboring Arab countries into its decision-making factor that urged the US and Israel to avoid Iranian oil and gas sites for fear of reprisal.
With the US elections on November 5, there were a lot of considerations to be made, he said.
Donald Trump’s former national security advisor Ambassador John Bolton posted to X on Tuesday that there was pressure from the Biden-Harris administration and the impending US elections that forced Israel to retaliate against Iran in what Bolton described as a limited way.
“The Tehran regime has gotten away with too much for too long. After November 5, Israel should strike Iran’s nuclear-weapons program,” Bolton wrote.
There are growing calls inside Israel’s government to do more with Iran. While deterrence was established, an Israeli government source told Iran International, that the weekend strikes did not go far enough to avenge a Hezbollah drone strike last week on the seaside residence of Prime Minister Netanyahu. Iran denied any involvement in that attack, but Israel pointed the finger at the Islamic Republic, which it views as Hezbollah’s boss.
Israel’s Channel 13 news, said the security cabinet discussed the topic for "long hours," reporting that the weekend's strikes were not intended to avenge the attack on the PM's home, launched by Iran's largest militia, Hezbollah, in Lebanon. It said, "another response is expected".
Even some people inside Iran, from the pro-Israel camp, posted to social media that they were disappointed in Israel’s targets were hoping for strikes on Iran’s political leadership.
Some Iranians had invested hope in Israel to help overthrow the Islamic Republic rule especially after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech delivered to the Iranian people where he made a direct appeal to them.
“You deserve better,” said Netanyahu in a pre-recorded speech last month.
Brigadier General (res.) Amir Avivi told Iran International prior to Israel's counterstrike, that Israel will perform one of many strikes in the Islamic Republic.
Avivi, who is a close friend of Netanyahu and is consulted for his military expertise, said that Israel’s first strike in Iran is beginning and not a means to an end.
What will Iran do?
When asked if Iran would counterstrike, Spencer said if you take the Islamic Republic leadership at their word, then yes.
Pezeshkian sent a letter to the UN Secretary General, saying Iran “reserves its inherent right to legal and legitimate response to these criminal attacks at the appropriate time”.
Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, said on Tuesday that Iran will respond to Israel. "Responding to Israel’s attack is our right, but the Islamic Republic will decide on this response itself, and we won’t allow anyone to drag us into emotional reactions."
Araghchi also noted that Tehran knows which countries allowed Israel to use their airspace to attack Iran, but the US is the main culprit.
Speaking at the United Nations Monday, Iran’s UN envoy told the Security Council, that it reserved the right to strike back. Iran also accused the US of being complicit in Israel’s airstrikes and said it would bear the consequences.
The US envoy, issued a warning to Iran, saying that any further aggressive actions against Israel or US personnel in the region would result in severe consequences.
“Stop pouring gasoline on the fire of the regional conflict,” the American envoy said, addressing the Islamic Republic.
Urban warfare expert John Spencer stated that Israel’s recent action serves as a deterrent, signaling to Iran that Israel could respond even more forcefully if Iran chooses to retaliate, given that it refrained from targeting additional sites. He also noted Iran’s often unpredictable behavior, making it difficult to forecast the Islamic Republic’s response.
However, Spencer cautioned against underestimating Iran’s capabilities. He warned that with the unpredictability of war and Iran’s actions, any Iranian retaliation targeting Israeli civilians could quickly escalate the conflict.
Iran still has thousands of cruise and ballistic missiles, for example.
“Iran still has the capability to conduct long range strikes against Israel. If it ratcheted up targeting civilian areas it would be really problematic. Nobody wants to see that.”
This round of Israeli strikes, though effective in destroying military targets while showing restraint, achieved important goals for Israel but the next move Iran makes will determine what unfolds in the near future.
