Is Israel's looming attack an opportunity for Iranian dissidents?

Israel's impending strike on Iran could present a pivotal opportunity for dissidents to challenge and potentially overthrow the clerical government, according to an Iranian-Canadian human rights expert, and a former advisor to Israel’s Prime Minister.

As the word awaits Israel’s response to Iran’s Oct 1. barrage of more than 180 ballistic missiles on the Jewish state, lawyer and advocate Kaveh Shahrooz told Iran International there are creative ways to respond to Iran’s aggression that could secure a country no longer under Islamic rule.

Speaking over zoom, Shahrooz told Iran International this would involve the West training and funding Iran’s opposition to bring the Iranian establishment down.

Shahrooz suggests utilizing tools like unrestricted internet access, which the government routinely blocks at the first sign of protests, and funding a massive strike fund for Iranian workers to cripple the economy—particularly by targeting critical infrastructure such as the oil industry.

He acknowledged that Israel must respond to Iran’s ballistic missile attacks, proxy threats, and other aggressive actions. However, he emphasized that Israel’s long-term success hinges on empowering Iranian dissidents to overthrow their government. While targeting Iran’s nuclear capabilities is understandable, Shahrooz argued that eliminating future threats requires the complete end of the Islamic Republic.

“Iranian protestors are ready to get back onto the streets. The level of anger that Iranians have at the regime is palpable,” he said.

Alex Selsky, an advisor to the Middle East Forum and former advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said Israel’s next strike should encourage the overthrow of the Islamic Republic.

“All of us hope that this strike can be a game changer for the opposition and for the people in Iran,” said Selksy over zoom in Israel.

The Netherlands-based Gamaan institute conducted an opinion survey in 2023 finding that more than 80 percent of 158,000 respondents in Iran reject the Islamic Republic and prefer a democratic government.

“We really hope that this is an opportunity that we will not miss, that Israel will not miss, that the West will not miss,” he added.

Selsky said he’s in touch with Iranian dissidents, who he said have suffered the most at the hands of Iran's authorities and understand the Iranian threat better than anyone.

He foresees Israel's future strike, no matter the target, as one that will weaken the establishment, but he stressed it must aim at supporting the people of Iran seeking change.

Since the "Woman, Life, Freedom" uprising, Iranian authorities have escalated their use of the death penalty. In 2023, executions reached an eight-year high, with Amnesty International reporting that the regime used the death penalty as a tool of oppression, particularly against the persecuted Baluch minority, who suffered a disproportionate number of hangings.

According to Amnesty International, Iran has arbitrarily executed 10 men since December 2022 in relation to the September-December 2022 protests.

Both Shahrooz and Selsky agree the Iranian people have proven that they have risked their lives to achieve freedom - knowing they risk executions and torture. The United Nations Fact Finding Mission found Iran committed crimes against humanity against its own people.

Ultimatum to Iran: Free your people or face attack

Shahrooz said there’s another alternative: give Iran an ultimatum – put down your guns and agree to free and fair referendum on Iran’s future – and you will be allowed to go into exile with your money or Israel will attack.

“The Iranian regime is a paper tiger,” said Shahrooz, who added that Iran’s capabilities and deterrence power have been decimated by Israel in recent weeks.

Since Oct 7, Israel has focused on weakening Iran’s proxies. The leader of Hamas Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran while visiting the country for the inauguration of its new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, on July 31. Israel has not claimed responsibility but is believed to be behind the attack. Then, Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of Oct 7 was killed in Gaza. The leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, once thought untouchable by many observers, was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut.

On 17 and 18 September, thousands of pagers and hundreds of walkie- talkies belonging to Hezbollah operatives exploded simultaneously across Lebanon and Syria in a coordinated Israeli attack. The killed at least 42 people, including at least 12 civilians, and injured more than 3,000.

Hamas, military and political capabilities, have been obliterated although supporters and fighters do still exist, and Hezbollah is wounded but not out.

If Iranian authorities are given an ultimatum, Shahrooz believes they will take it to hold onto the wealth they’ve amassed since the inception of the Islamic Republic in 1979. Selsky pointed out that he believes people within the Iranian establishment are likely there for money and power.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directly addressed the people of Iran in a prerecorded video three weeks ago, saying "Israel stands with you."

The question now: will Israel's next strike put those words into action and support Iranian opposition?