Asharq Al-Awsat: Tehran tells Israel it won't respond to a limited attack

People stand around apparent remains of a ballistic missile lying in the desert, following an attack by Iran on Israel, near the southern city of Arad, Israel October 2, 2024.
People stand around apparent remains of a ballistic missile lying in the desert, following an attack by Iran on Israel, near the southern city of Arad, Israel October 2, 2024.

Diplomatic sources revealed on Friday that Iran has finally conveyed a message to Israel, through European intermediaries, regarding its potential response to any future Israeli attack, Asharq Al-Awsat reported.

According to the sources, “the Iranian communication, primarily addressed to Israel in an indirect manner, indicates that Tehran would be prepared to overlook a limited Israeli strike and refrain from retaliation, despite the implied threat.”

The sources further explained that the real concern lies in the latter part of the message, where Iran warns that “Tehran would have no alternative but to respond decisively, crossing previously established red lines, should it face a significant strike aimed at its critical oil infrastructure or nuclear energy facilities.”

Iran’s government is reportedly highly nervous, engaging in urgent diplomatic efforts with Middle Eastern countries to assess whether they can limit the scope of Israel’s potential response to its missile attack earlier this month, according to sources familiar with the matter cited by CNN.

The sources indicate that Tehran’s anxiety stems from uncertainty over whether the US can persuade Israel not to target Iranian nuclear sites and oil facilities. They also highlight concerns about the weakening of Hezbollah, Iran’s key proxy in the region, which has been significantly affected by recent Israeli military operations.

US-based analyst Alex Vatanka told Iran International's Eye for Iran podcast this week that the Islamic Republic is extremely concerned about an attack on its nuclear facilities, because the atomic program is its only major accomplishment in 45 years.

Iran, anticipating a retaliatory strike from Israel, has been urging its Arab neighbors not to permit Israel to use their airspace, two Arab diplomats told NBC News on Friday.

“The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is not interested in being caught in a crossfire,” one diplomat said. “Our focus has been on de-escalation.”

Many Arab nations, including Jordan and the UAE, host US bases and critical oil facilities, raising regional concerns that these sites could become targets. However, the second diplomat noted that it was unlikely any Arab nation would agree to allow Israel to use its airspace for a strike on Iran.

Earlier in the week reports emerged that regional countries and the United States were discussion an overall ceasefire deal, but the US State Department denied these reports on Wednesday. “There isn’t such a plan or proposal to my awareness. I obviously can’t speak to what other countries may or may not be developing on their own, which is not to say that it’s happening, but certainly no one has reached out to the United States about such a proposal, and we’re not in talks with any countries about such a proposal," the Department spokesperson said.