Israeli fire may boost Hezbollah's popularity
As Israel continues to bombard Iran’s biggest proxy, Hezbollah, and steps up its ground invasion, experts warn it could push support for the designated terror group in Lebanon.
As Israel continues to bombard Iran’s biggest proxy, Hezbollah, and steps up its ground invasion, experts warn it could push support for the designated terror group in Lebanon.
Amid an ongoing economic crisis, compounded by challenges from the 2019 Beirut port disaster to the pandemic, Lebanon is already on its knees.
Prior to the war, only one third of the country, mainly Shiites, had confidence in Hezbollah, but as the destruction of Israel’s bombardment of the Iranian proxy continues, Dr Michael Robbins from the Arab Barometer warns it could sway the balance.
“In times of war, it is very difficult to know for sure how public opinion will change,” he said. “In Arab Barometer’s last survey of Lebanon in the spring, just 30% of Lebanese had confidence in Hezbollah. However, this was deeply divided by sect. The vast majority of Shiites in Lebanon had confidence in Hezbollah compared with a small minority of Christians, Sunnis, or Druze.
“However, when we asked if it was good the Arab region that Hezbollah is getting involved in regional politics, Christians, Sunnis, or Druze were more likely to agree in spring 2024 than they were in late 2021 to early 2022. Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel after October 7 are the most likely explanation for this increase.”
As the Israeli offensive now leaves around one million Lebanese displaced, the risk of allegiance to Hezbollah grows.
“While many in the Shiite community turned to Hezbollah for protection and social services, Hezbollah’s inability to protect them or provide for them may have driven down support for this organization, at least in the short term. The broader question is really the longer-term effects. If Hezbollah is able to successfully resist the Israeli invasion, as it did in 2006, then Lebanese attitudes may once again become more favorable toward the group as it did when it repelled Israel in 2006. So, it is too soon to say what will be the ultimate effect on views of Hezbollah.”
Huge swathes of southern Lebanon have been turned to rubble, in addition to Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut, the group buried deep within and underneath the civilian infrastructure.
Targeted killings have reached the top levels of the group, including the once seemingly immune Hassan Nasrallah. Over 1,500 operatives were also taken out of action in a mass pager and walkie-talkie attack, which Israel has not claimed responsibility for.
However, for Iran, the group is a key asset and experts say the support from Iran will only strengthen in the face of such destruction by Israel.
“Iran would likely replenish Hezbollah’s material losses and provide financial support to help the group recover, as it did in 2006,” according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Iran has also increasingly signaled its willingness to directly attack Israel in response to the Israeli threat to Hezbollah, and the Israeli response to Iran’s October 1 ballistic missile attack will risk further escalation between the two regional powers.”
Before the latest escalation, the worst since the last war in 2006, many Lebanese, especially those who were not Shiite, were deeply opposed to Hezbollah and many wanted it destroyed, said Dr Robbins. “Yet, at a time of war, the situation often changes. Confronted with the realities of an Israeli invasion, it is possible that there has been a “rally-around-the-flag” effect where Lebanese, despite their differences, band together against a foreign force. Surveys conducted after October 7 in the Palestinian Territories showed increased levels in support for Hamas. It’s possible that the same is happening today in Lebanon but it is difficult to say without new survey data on this topic.”
Before the strike on Nasrallah, non-Shia Lebanese were longing for Israel to take action against the group which has hijacked the country’s political and economic systems. But now, as destruction continues, the feelings are changing.
George Khoury, a Christian from Beirut, told Iran International: “This is not Gaza, we didn’t ask for this and this is not a way for us to live. We are all being punished for Hezbollah. Yes, we want the end of this terror group, but this is a huge price we are all paying now.”
The future of Hezbollah is now in question, but killing its ideology is harder still. “Even if Israel were successful in destroying Hamas, it is unclear what would fill the resulting vacuum. ISIS filled such a vacuum in parts of Syria and Iraq while ISIS and al-Qaeda affiliates have done the same in the Sahel region just south of the Sahara in recent years," Dr Robbins said.
“It is impossible to bomb away an ideology and generally such tactics lead to the destruction of lives and growing resentment. Most likely, this is what will happen in Lebanon just as it has in Gaza. Although Israel might be able to destroy the operational capacity of Hezbollah or Hamas, the events of the last year indicate no clear plan for the day after. Very likely, these same groups would reconstitute or new organizations with a similar ideology would emerge instead.”
The MPs argue that Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei can reconsider his religious ban on nuclear weapons on the grounds that the circumstances have changed.
“To create deterrent capability and ensure national security, the ability to develop nuclear weapons is necessary,” Iranian MP Mohammad Reza Sabaghian said Wednesday. “While having nuclear weapons is possible for Israel, Iran must pursue nuclear weapons for self-defense.”
Iranian officials have repeatedly asserted that the country's nuclear program is peaceful, referring to a religious ruling by Khamenei prohibiting weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear bombs.
But growing tensions between Iran and Israel has led some hardliners in Tehran to push for stronger measures, questioning the permanence of that ruling.
"In the context of jurisprudence, time and place can influence the modification of rulings, and secondary rulings can replace primary ones," another Iranian MP Hassanali Akhlaghi Amiri said on Tuesday.
The ruling, or fatwa, is not a legal document but an advisory opinion on Islamic law offered by a high-ranking cleric. It is not set in stone and can be changed at any time.
His remarks come as the hardline Javan newspaper, closely aligned with Iran's ultra-conservative factions, has recently called for a shift in Iran’s nuclear doctrine. Following Iranian missile attacks on Israel earlier this month, the outlet argued for an immediate "transformation" in the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program.
Javan also questioned whether Israel, if facing an existential threat, might issue threaten Iran with a nuclear attack. "Is the possibility of Israel issuing a clear or secret nuclear ultimatum out of the question?" the article asked, hinting at the possibility of nuclear escalation between the two adversaries.
Tehran’s stockpile of uranium, currently enriched to 60%, could potentially be refined to weapons-grade 90% in as little as two weeks. The shift in doctrine would likely be a signal of Iran's willingness to develop nuclear weapons if Israeli military actions threaten its core interests.
Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett recently urged Israel to seize the opportunity to cripple Iran’s nuclear program after last week's attack in which 181 ballistic missiles were sent by Iran to the Jewish state.
Iran’s ultra-hardliners have been increasingly vocal on social media, advocating for retaliatory actions against Israel and pushing for the development of a nuclear bomb.
Supporters of former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili have been particularly critical of Iran's current leadership, accusing President Masoud Pezeshkian of failing to adequately respond to Israeli airstrikes in Gaza and Lebanon, a result of the October 7 Hamas-backed attacks on Israel.
In May, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader stated that Iran would reconsider its nuclear doctrine if Israel threatens its existence.
In April, amid rising tensions with Israel, which is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, a senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander also warned that Israeli threats could lead Iran to alter its nuclear policy.
The head of UN nuclear watchdog has warned that Iran may be weeks away from having enough weapons-grade nuclear material.
The comments come amid growing concern over possible Israeli retaliation for last week's Iranian missile attack, as Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi headed to Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf states for talks on Wednesday.
They followed discussions between Iran and Arab capitals last week on the sidelines of an Asia conference in Qatar, when Persian Gulf states sought to reassure Iran of their neutrality in any conflict between Tehran and Israel.
"Iran made it clear that any action by a Persian Gulf country against Tehran, whether through the use of airspace or military bases, will be regarded by Tehran as an action taken by the entire group, and Tehran will respond accordingly," the senior Iranian official told Reuters.
"The message emphasized the need for regional unity against Israel and the importance of securing stability," he said.
"It also made clear that any assistance to Israel, such as allowing the use of a regional country’s airspace for actions against Iran, is unacceptable."
The role of Persian Gulf Arab states will become more significant if an Israeli attack leads to US military involvement, as Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates all host US military facilities or troops.
Meanwhile Israel’s Channel 12 reported on Tuesday that the United States and Arab states have launched covert talks with Iran for a comprehensive ceasefire aimed at calming all war fronts at once.
The report said Israel isn’t currently involved in the initiative but added that senior Israeli officials have been informed about it.
The network noted that it isn’t clear how the efforts would affect Gaza, which is more complex than the rest of the fronts due to Israel’s desire to continue fighting even after a potential hostage deal and Hamas’s demand for an Israeli withdrawal in any deal.
One of the senior Israeli officials was quoted by Channel 12 as saying: “We are currently in a position of power, a ceasefire will be on our terms, including a [Hezbollah] withdrawal beyond the Litani [River] and the dismantling of all military Hezbollah sites in areas near the border.”
US President Joe Biden is expected to hold a telephone call on Wednesday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that will include discussion of any plans to strike Iran, according to a person familiar with the matter who spoke with Reuters.
The official said Iran did not discuss the issue of Persian Gulf Arab oil producers raising output if Iranian production was disrupted during any escalation.
The likelihood of Israel targeting Iran’s oil sector has been widely discussed since Jerusalem made its intention of retaliation clear. However, Israel can target Iran’s export capacity or the domestic energy sector by targeting refineries.
Biden has said he would think about alternatives to striking Iranian oil fields if he were in Israel's shoes. Any such attack would drive up global oil prices just weeks before the US presidential election that can hurt Vice President Kamala Harris’s chances.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, which is de-facto led by Saudi Arabia, has enough spare oil capacity to make up any loss of Iranian supply if an Israeli retaliation knocks out some of the country's facilities.
Much of OPEC's spare capacity is in the Persian Gulf region. Iran has not threatened to attack the oil facilities of its Arab neighbors but has previously warned that if "Israel supporters" intervene directly their interests in the region would be targeted.
Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia has had a political rapprochement with Tehran since 2023, which has helped ease regional tensions, but relations remain difficult.
Saudi Arabia has been wary of an Iranian strike on its oil facilities since a 2019 attack on its key refinery at Abqaiq briefly shut down more than 5% of global oil supply. Iran denied involvement.
A Western diplomat in the Persian Gulf told Reuters that during Thursday's meeting in Doha, Iran made clear that Tehran had called for regional unity in the face of an Israeli attack and that it considered neutrality of Gulf states a bare minimum.
The diplomat said Iran had made clear that Tehran would keep a close eye on how each Persian Gulf country responded in the case of an Israeli attack, and also how US bases housed in their countries were used.