Experts say Nasrallah's killing will reshape Lebanon and region

With the world now looking ahead to a future for Lebanon and the Middle East without long-time Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, many are hopeful for a brighter outlook for the country and the region.

Hanin Ghaddar, a Friedmann Senior Fellow in The Washington Institute, said Israel’s assassination of long-time leader “constitutes a shattering moment for the group that could alter the Lebanese political landscape as well as dynamics across the region”.

His death was the culmination of a 10-day campaign by Israel which had assassinated the group’s top leadership and infiltrated its communications systems while dismantling masses of its military infrastructure.

“On paper at least, replacing Nasrallah will not be difficult, and Hezbollah will take up the task alongside Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC),” said Ghaddar, with likely successors including deputy leader Naim Qassem and executive council head Hashem Safieddine, Nasrallah’s nephew.

But she says that on a deeper level, "replacing the charismatic longtime leader will be very difficult”.

“He has become inseparable from the group’s brand, and is identified with successes such as Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000 and the perceived summer 2006 “divine victory” against Israel,” she added.

Hezbollah’s sponsor, Iran, now has two options, to escalate the situation or to back down, containing its biggest proxy’s losses. That may involve taking a US-France led truce but after the failings of the UN Resolution 1701 in 2006, what Israel will be willing to accept remains in question.

She says it is the chance for the Lebanese Armed Forces to pull back control now that Hezbollah has been seriously curtailed. “But the LAF itself must answer to an independent Lebanese government, not one in thrall to Hezbollah,” she added. “A post-ceasefire Lebanon must above all be anchored in state sovereignty and independence.”

Iranian-born Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and adjunct professor at Georgetown, agreed that the assassination “is hugely consequential for the Middle East”.

Writing on X, he said: “Hezbollah is the crown jewel of the Islamic Republic of Iran-the one effective enterprise Iran’s revolutionaries have built since 1979-and Nasrallah has been crucial to Iran’s power expansion.

“Arab Hezbollah has been Persian Iran’s bridge to the five failing Arab states-Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Gaza-that Tehran has been dominating. Iran provides the resources, but it was often Hezbollah, under Nasrallah’s leadership, that set up and trained these proxies.”

While his death will not change the course of Iran’s mission to annihilate the Jewish state, It has thrown Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei into “a dilemma of his own making”, he says.

“By not responding strongly, he keeps losing face. By responding too strongly, he could lose his head. Like all dictators, Khamenei wants to be feared by his people. These humiliations will fuel talk about succession in Tehran.”

While Nasrallah’s death is huge, he says the true impact will take years to assess. “The key to change in the Middle East remains a government in Iran whose organizing principle is not revolutionary ideology (‘Death to America, Death to Israel’), but Iran’s national and economic interests.”

Gabriel Noronha, a former official in the Trump administration, emphasized the importance of Israel continuing its efforts to dismantle Hezbollah. He noted that alongside the war objectives of returning the 101 hostages held in Gaza and destroying Iran-backed Hamas, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government has also prioritized the return of the 63,000 Israelis displaced from the north to their homes.

“Israel should ignore calls for urgent de-escalation from weak-kneed Western leaders who know nothing of victory and are stewards of decline,” he wrote on X.

“Israel should instead press their clear advantage to decimate as much of Hezbollah as they desire - and stop when they wish. And if Iran is foolish enough to strike Israel from its territory, appropriate response targets should include the IRGC headquarters, MOIS headquarters, and nuclear sites - particularly clandestine sites and those associated with weaponization activity.”

After nearly one year of Hezbollah’s bombardment of northern Israel in the wake of the Hamas invasion on October 7, Israel is finally pushing back on the US’s diplomatic approach. On Sunday, there was confirmation from Israeli officials of the military having begun limited incursions into southern Lebanon.

“The Islamic Republic’s shield of Hezbollah has been torn through like rice paper. The Axis of Resistance is reeling and off-balance,” Noronha said, while calling for more sanctions on Iran along with tougher military pressure on Hezbollah.

Michael Singh, head of the Washington Institute, warned that Iran’s policy of illegally flooding Lebanon with arms, undermining its sovereignty and using it as a shield against retaliation with no regard for the lives or interests of the Lebanese people, “may have finally run its course”, offering a brighter future for the country whose capital was once known as the Paris of the Middle East.

But while Hezbollah may have been markedly weakened, offering the chance to Lebanon for a future beyond the grips of Tehran, Yemen expert Thomas Juneau, a professor at the University of Ottawa and former department of defense analyst, warned that this may merely see a passing of the baton to Iran’s Yemeni proxy. The Houthis have become ever more powerful in the last year amid the blockade of the Red Sea region.

Since November, the Houthis have targeted commercial shipping in a bid to force a ceasefire in Gaza, initiated by Iran’s Khamenei. While it aimed to target Israeli-linked vessels, it has however, seen dozens of international seamen taken hostage and international vessels targeted in drone and missile attacks.

“With Nasrallah confirmed dead and Hezbollah suffering so many losses (and Hamas even more), expect the Houthis to become even more prominent as a key Iranian partner. This matters, especially as Houthis are possibly the least risk averse member of the 'Axis of resistance',” Juneau warned on X.