Who will be Iran's next national security chief?

Political observers in Tehran have been predicting changes at the Supreme Council of National Security (SCNS), the government body that makes key security and foreign policy decisions.

Khabar Online website speculated on Friday that former Security Chief Ali Shamkhani is likely to return to the Council despite reports about his son's involvement in oil trade and money laundering, as well as his own background that was revealed following the deadly collapse of a high-rise building in the city of Abadan in southern Iran in 2022. The owner of the building reportedly took advantage of his connections to Shamkhani to skirt safety regulations for the construction of the building.

Although the president chairs the Supreme Council of National Security, its decisions must be endorsed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei before they can be implemented. Khamenei typically grants the SCNS Secretary the right to vote, which positions the Council—comprising key military, security, and civilian officials—as the highest security organization in the Islamic Republic. Consequently, the head of its secretariat is considered a top security official.

Iranian media have mentioned several candidates for the position, including former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani and former Intelligence Minister and government spokesman Ali Rabiei. However, President Masoud Pezeshkian has neither reinstated the current security chief, Ali Akbar Ahmadian, nor appointed a new head for the SCNS secretariat.

Since one of the key objectives of the Pezeshkian Administration is to advance negotiations aimed at ending sanctions against the Islamic Republic, appointing the head of the council is a crucial task that Pezeshkian must address.

Ahmadian represented Iran at the recent BRICS meeting in Russia earlier this month. However, for him to continue as Iran's security chief, he must receive an official appointment from Pezeshkian. Ahmadian, who succeeded Rear Admiral Shamkhani in June 2023, is a vice admiral and has previously served as the chief of the IRGC's Strategic Center and as a member of the Expediency Council.

Until 2013, the SCNS oversaw the nuclear negotiations. President Hassan Rouhani refused to officially re-instate Shamkhani as the Security Chief in his second term as President. But he stayed on until his removal in 2023.

Rouhani has said in his memoires that Shamkhani was his third choice for the post during his first term, as the first two refused to accept the job. He added that Khamenei did not like Shamkhani to become the security chief but Rouhani convinced him to accept Shamkhani. Subsequently, he replaced Saeed Jalili in 2013, during whose term of office Iran's nuclear negotiations with the West had reached a deadlock.

Before Jalili, Ali Larijani held the position but stepped down due to disagreements with former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The longest-serving security chief of the Islamic Republic was Hassan Rouhani, who held the post from 1989 until 2005, when he resigned and handed the position to Larijani.

Although many observers believe Shamkhani is eager to return as security chief of the SCNS, speculation continues about Larijani and Rabiei being the most likely candidates. Pezeshkian opposes Shamkhani's return, as Shamkhani is reportedly against nuclear negotiations, allegedly due to his involvement in illicit oil exports under sanctions.

Other candidates mentioned by the Iranian press include Admiral Hosein Alai, former commander of the IRGC naval force; former Intelligence Minister Mahmoud Alavi; former diplomat and IRGC officer Iraj Masjedi; and former Justice Minister and presidential candidate Mostafa Pourmohammadi.