Satellite imagery shows new activities at suspected Iranian nuclear sites - think tank

Iran has increased its activities at two nuclear sites that were key to its early nuclear weapons program two decades ago, according to a report by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS).

The report is based on satellite imagery given to the institute by Western intelligence officials, who say that in the past 18 months, Iranian experts who were involved in Iran’s weapons-related projects in the early 2000s have been back at work at two secret sites.

The two sites, Sanjarian and Golab Dareh, were “central” to Iran’s alleged attempts to develop and test devices and systems that could be used to build a nuclear weapon, the report says.

It’s unclear if the recent activities at these two sites are nuclear weapons-related. But there’s room for concern, the authors write, given Iran’s significant progress in uranium enrichment and its lack of transparency, as reported by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

US E3 warning

Earlier this week, the United States, Britain, France and Germany warned that Iran’s nuclear program could be referred to the United Nations security council within months if Tehran does not show more transparency to the UN nuclear watchdog.

The four Western powers accused Iran of failing to explain undeclared nuclear material and allow visits to alleged secret sites - activity the IAEA has said raises concern about the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program.

“This board has shown considerable patience. But that patience has its limits, and we will not stand by while Iran continues to obfuscate,” they said in a joint statement at the Board of Governors meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

'Further action'

“If Iran continues to fail to provide the necessary, full and unambiguous cooperation with the agency to resolve all outstanding safeguards issues, further action by this board will be necessary,” they added.

The statement cited the IAEA’s authority to act when a member state fails to demonstrate the peaceful nature of its nuclear activities and empowers it to refer the issue to the Security Council.

Iran maintains that its nuclear program is a peaceful scientific enterprise while top adversary Israel says Tehran seeks a bomb.

Tehran has been brought before the Security Council repeatedly from 2007 to 2010 and faced several resolutions condemning the program and expanding international sanctions.

JCPOA and its unmaking

After lengthy negotiations, Iran and the P5+1 (the five permanent UNSC members plus Germany) reached an agreement in 2015 in a deal by which restrictions and more rigorous inspections of its nuclear sites was agreed in exchange for sanctions relief.

That agreement fell apart in 2018 when the U.S. administration under Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew and reimposed sanctions.

Other signatories remained in the deal, but Iran scaled back its compliance and limited access to its sites, barring several IAEA inspectors from returning to the country.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warned earlier this week that Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium is on the rise.

Iran’s nuclear breakout time—the time needed to produce enough 90% enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon—has likely shrunk to "one or two weeks”, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in July.