Continued decline in Iran's marriage rates despite Supreme Leader's growth push

New data highlights a persistent decline in Iran's marriage rates since 2011, exposing the ineffectiveness of the Supreme Leader’s prolonged efforts to boost population growth amid deteriorating economic conditions.

The latest findings from the state-run National Population Research Institute suggest that the average age of marriage for women has reached 24, while men are marrying at around 28 years old.

According to the head of the Institute, Mohammad-Javad Mahmoudi, the number of registered marriages in Iran has dropped dramatically since 2011,with almost half a million marriages registered – a fall from the peak of 891,627 marriages in 2010.

This downward trend has persisted despite repeated calls from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei for policies to facilitate marriage and boost population growth.

The figures also suggest that the trend kickstarted the year international sanctions tightened their grip on the Iranian economy in 2011. At the end of that year, the US blocked oil importers from making payments through Iran's central bank and imposed measures that restricted Iran's access to foreign currencies. These sanctions were a response to Iran's defiance of international norms on nuclear weapons development, aiming to limit its nuclear proliferation potential and enforce global demands for transparency and accountability.

The figures also reveal that before the downward trend, there was a dramatic rise in the number of marriages in Iran with registrations soaring nearly ninefold from 152,411 to 891,627 between 1966 to 2010. This surge represents the highest recorded marriage rate in over fifty years.

Khamenei’s rhetoric on population growth has been matched by a series of laws and regulations designed to encourage young Iranians to marry and have children. However, these initiatives are being undermined by significant economic challenges, including the impacts of international sanctions that have made it increasingly difficult for many young Iranians to afford the costs of starting a family.

Iran observers often highlight that the country’s economic struggles are largely a consequence of sanctions imposed due to its support for regional terrorism and severe human rights abuses. The US and EU have targeted Iran for backing militant groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as for its widespread suppression of political dissent and activism.

The decline in marriage rates also reflects a broader demographic shift in Iran. Over the past 57 years, the average age at which women first marry has risen by approximately five and a half years, while for men, it has increased by about three and a half years.

This delay in marriage, coupled with economic uncertainty, has also led to a decline in birth rates. In the first nine months of 2023, Iran experienced the lowest number of births in the past decade, intensifying worries about the country’s future population growth. Abortion rates have also been on the rise in recent years.

Mahmoudi also warned that the number of women of reproductive age will sharply decline after 2029. This is due to the government’s failure to capitalize on the peak reproductive years between 2010 and 2022. "We have not yet optimally utilized the 12-year period between 2010 and 2022, during which we had a peak in the number of women of reproductive age," Mahmoudi admitted.

These demographic challenges emerge as Khamenei has once again instructed government officials to eliminate barriers to population growth. On September 3, Health Minister Mohammad-Reza Zafarghandi announced that discussions had been held on population growth policies and that experts were tasked with addressing these issues.

The Rejuvenation of the Population and Protection of the Family (RPPF) law, enacted by the Iranian Parliament in 2021 under Khamenei’s directive, has yet to produce significant results. While the law imposes penalties for actions against childbearing and marriage, economic pressures on young Iranians continue to outweigh these measures.

In a recent effort to tackle the population decline, the Central Bank of Iran announced on September 1 that it will allocate 500 trillion rials (over $830 million) from bank deposits for marriage and childbearing loans. An investigation by Iran International, however, revealed that this funding will fall short of meeting the actual demand for these loans.

This underscores the inadequacy of the government's measures and its failure to address the crisis effectively. Despite the large financial commitment, the government's approach is criticized for not sufficiently addressing the needs of young Iranians and failing to mitigate the broader economic pressures contributing to the decline in marriage rates and birth rates.

Iran's population growth rate has thus sharply declined to 0.6 percent, down from 1.23% just two years ago and a significant drop from the 4.21% rate seen in 1984.

Despite this, the Supreme Leader appears bent on boosting the population to 150 million by 2050. The relentless pursuit of demographic growth, frequently at the expense of individual rights and well-being, according to many observers, highlights the Islamic Republic’s disregard for the health and rights of its citizens, especially women and children, in favor of ideological ambitions.