Experts discuss Iran's future beyond the Islamic Republic

The fourth annual "Iran: Transitional Justice" conference, hosted by the Norway-based rights group Iran Human Rights (IHR), was held in Oslo on Saturday to discuss Iran's future.

The event brought together Iran experts, researchers, and human rights advocates to address the critical challenges and strategies for transitioning the country from authoritarianism to democracy in the event of the Islamic Republic's demise.

In recent years, especially following the ‘Woman, Life, Freedom’ uprising ignited by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini while in police custody for an alleged hijab violation, anti-Islamic Republic sentiment has surged among Iranians, with a vast majority now calling for the regime's overthrow. As a result, the question of what Iran’s future might look like post-regime change has become a central topic of debate among Iran researchers, political scientists, rights activists, and experts across various fields.

This conference series seeks to provide a platform for dialogue between Iranian citizens and experts, exploring solutions through the examination of different transition models that aim to guarantee the rights of all Iranians.

"The Islamic Republic is an unstable regime. They may manage to continue for a few more years through repression, but sooner or later, they will fall. What is important is what happens afterward, and the political forces and the public must be prepared in advance," IHR’s director, Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam told Iran International in an interview on the event’s sidelines.

Social dynamics expert Forough Kanani highlighted the importance of preparing for the post-regime transition. "We are still in the stage of overthrowing the regime… from my perspective, the movement [Woman, Life, Freedom] hasn't ended…once we bring this movement to an end and achieve the results we seek, the transitional period comes next, which we hope will be as short and, most importantly, as institutionalized as possible when establishing new legal structures," she said during her speech.

Kanani also discussed the role of international powers during the transition period, referencing the Swedish government's release of Hamid Nouri, an Iranian prison official convicted of war crimes, who was returned to Iran earlier this year in a prisoner swap deal. "In the future, Iran won't have a government that would release someone like him," she stated.

Furthermore, Kanani emphasized the threat posed by the second generation of Islamic Republic loyalists. "The oligarchy within the Islamic Republic, some of whom are likely not genuinely religious, remains loyal due to financial dependencies created by the economic chaos typical of the Islamic Republic. We must consider the second generation, the children of the Islamic Republic, who are likely to become professors or economic leaders in Europe or even at the same university where you and I might be. These individuals pose a significant threat to the establishment of democracy in a free Iran after the overthrow. They have the money, and they know the power structures well."

In another session, human rights lawyer Shadi Manesh emphasized the importance of inclusivity for minority groups in shaping the legal frameworks for Iran's future, particularly during the transition period.

Manesh further pointed out the lack of a unified approach among Iranian opposition groups. "To date, we have not seen any guideline, manifesto, or document from any group or opposition that has been published and endorsed by a significant part of society," she remarked. She emphasized the need for a collaborative movement that transcends isolated efforts, urging that, "We still haven’t learned how to come out of our isolated silos and design an important movement in collaboration with others that includes all groups under our umbrella." This, she argued, is essential for ensuring a truly inclusive and effective transition.

Other speakers at the event included Shahram Kholdi, a professor of Middle East history and international relations, and Behnam Daraeizadeh, a journalist and human rights researcher. These experts provided insights into the legal structures needed to ensure a smooth transition and long-term stability in governance.

In a focused panel, experts including political scientist Ammar Maleki, sociological researcher Forough Kananian, agroecologist Mansour Sohrabi, and psychiatrist and women's rights activist Simin Sabri discussed strategies for governing Iran during the transition period. In another panel, speakers Jalal Ejadi, a social scientist; Pooyan Tamimi Arab, a religion scholar; Fariba Borhanzehi, a human rights activist; and Parvaneh Andache, a medical doctor and rights activist, discussed citizens' rights in a diverse society.