Iran signals softer tone on nuclear talks, but doubts persist

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei told Iran's new government there is "no barrier" to engaging with the "enemy" on the nuclear issue. While Western media framed this as 'opening the door' to talks, some Iran watchers remain skeptical.

Khamenei's warned that Washington should not be trusted should any talks under President Masoud Pezeshkian resume.

The timing and rhetoric could all be part of a deception campaign for sanctions relief, some experts and Iran watchers believe.

"World powers should see the Supreme Leader’s willingness to restart nuclear talks as a simple ruse to obtain continued sanctions relief regardless of who is elected US president," said Andrea Stricker, the Deputy Director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD)’s Nonproliferation and Biodefense program.

A State Department spokesperson told Iran International that it will judge Iran’s leadership by their actions, not their words.

The US approach, they said hasn't changed, and that If Iran wants to demonstrate seriousness, they should stop nuclear escalations and start meaningfully cooperating with the IAEA.

Stricker views Khamenei's remarks as a charade, with the nation having had more than three years to revive a nuclear deal under the Biden administration. Instead, the world saw the Islamic Republic advance its nuclear program by enriching enough uranium for several bombs.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Iran’s breakout time, which is the amount of time needed to produce enough weapons grade material for a nuclear weapon, “is now probably one or two weeks." Blinken made the comments last month at the Aspen Security Forum.

The preferred method of containment under the Biden administration has been diplomacy and allowing Iran to circumvent economic sanctions. The Biden administration also released around $16 billion of Tehran's frozen funds in 2023, before Iran's proxy, Hamas, launched its October 7 attack on Israel.

The administration engaged in more than a year of indirect negotiations with Tehran in 2021 and 2022. Their goal was to revive the Iran nuclear deal which the US withdrew from under the Trump administration in 2018.

Iran maintains that its nuclear program is peaceful and that it has no plans to develop nuclear weapons, but the UN's nuclear watchdog warned that Iran is enriching uranium to near weapons-grade levels. Iran's estimated stockpile of enriched uranium had reached more than 30 times the limit set out in the 2015 JCPOA nuclear agreement between Tehran and world powers.

The Islamic Republic has also barred some of the Vienna-based agency’s inspectors.

Iran's new president Masoud Pezeshkian campaigned on a promise to reengage with the West. Of significance is that the country's new foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, was heavily involved in 2015 negotiations on the deal.

For Kasra Aarabi, the Director of IRGC Research at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), the talks may be used by Khamenei as a front to get more assets unfrozen - preparing for and anticipating a Donald Trump presidency. The former president, who is attacking Biden's foreign policy record, is expected to be tougher on Iran's Islamic government.

"Khamenei may also be using this as a final attempt to get more assets unfrozen prior to a new US administration. If this is the case, expect threats/escalation in the next few months to force diplomatic concessions," said Aarabi.

The previous Trump presidency saw US policy that advocated for “maximum pressure” against the Iranian ruling system. It may do so again, if he is elected president for a second term.

The regional conflict between Iran and Israel, reached a dangerous escalation after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last month. The potential for a regional conflict between the two adversaries may also be used as leverage by Iran, promising calm in exchange for benefits.

On X, Jason Brodsky, the policy director of UANI posted that the door was never shut for negotiations on Iran's nuclear ambitions.

The tactic, according to Brodsky is one Iran has used time and time again. One that allows the regime to benefit from the prospect of talks as a lure to neutralize pressure.